TRICHOTOMOUS CHOICE: A POSSIBLE SOLUTION TO DUAL RESPONSE OBJECTIVES IN DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE CONTINGENT VALUATION QUESTIONS

We investigate the possibility that some respondents to a dichotomous choice question vote YES, even though they would not pay the posted dollar amount in order to register support for the project or policy. A trichotomous choice question format is proposed to determine if allowing respondents the opportunity to vote in favor of a project at an amount less than their bid affects estimated willingness to pay. Using univariate and multivariate tests, we find the trichotomous choice question format reduces the number of YES responses and produces a statistically significant decrease in willingness to pay for an open-space program.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Spatial Description and Analysis of Grasshopper Abundances in Colorado Rangeland

Although rangeland grasshopper populations have been studied for more than 120 years, little is known of the spatial patterns in grasshopper numbers between outbreak cycles. This information is necessary to understand how grasshopper outbreaks develop and to correctly design research, monitoring, and modeling projects. We used exploratory data analysis and geostatistics to identify the spatial patterns in grasshopper numbers for 1993 through 1997 in Colorado. The same family of models (spherical) provided the best fit to the sample data for all years, which implies that similar processes influenced grasshopper densities over these years. The parameters of the models differed among years, however, which suggest that the scale of spatial patterning changed over time. Since Colorado grasshopper densities were patterned at scales larger than those reported for other areas of the Great Plains, our results suggest that survey methods for Colorado are not adequate to identify small-scale “hot spots” of high grasshopper numbers, inhibiting prediction of potential outbreak foci in this region

Spatial Description and Analysis of Grasshopper Abundances in Colorado Rangeland

Although rangeland grasshopper populations have been studied for more than 120 years, little is known of the spatial patterns in grasshopper numbers between outbreak cycles. This information is necessary to understand how grasshopper outbreaks develop and to correctly design research, monitoring, and modeling projects. We used exploratory data analysis and geostatistics to identify the spatial patterns in grasshopper numbers for 1993 through 1997 in Colorado. The same family of models (spherical) provided the best fit to the sample data for all years, which implies that similar processes influenced grasshopper densities over these years. The parameters of the models differed among years, however, which suggest that the scale of spatial patterning changed over time. Since Colorado grasshopper densities were patterned at scales larger than those reported for other areas of the Great Plains, our results suggest that survey methods for Colorado are not adequate to identify small-scale “hot spots” of high grasshopper numbers, inhibiting prediction of potential outbreak foci in this region

ISRU Reactant, Fuel Cell Based Power Plant for Robotic and Human Mobile Exploration Applications

Three basic power generation system concepts are generally considered for lander, rover, and Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) assistant applications for robotic and human Moon and Mars exploration missions. The most common power system considered is the solar array and battery system. While relatively simple and successful, solar array/battery systems have some serious limitations for mobile applications. For typical rover applications, these limitations include relatively low total energy storage capabilities, daylight only operating times (6 to 8 hours on Mars), relatively short operating lives depending on the operating environment, and rover/lander size and surface use constraints. Radioisotope power systems are being reconsidered for long-range science missions. Unfortunately, the high cost, political controversy, and launch difficulties that are associated with nuclear-based power systems suggests that the use of radioisotope powered landers, rovers, and EVA assistants will be limited. The third power system concept now being considered are fuel cell based systems. Fuel cell power systems overcome many of the performance and surface exploration limitations of solar array/battery power systems and the prohibitive cost and other difficulties associated with nuclear power systems for mobile applications. In an effort to better understand the capabilities and limitations of fuel cell power systems for Moon and Mars exploration applications, NASA is investigating the use of in-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) produced reactant, fuel cell based power plants to power robotic outpost rovers, science equipment, and future human spacecraft, surface-excursion rovers, and EVA assistant rovers. This paper will briefly compare the capabilities and limitations of fuel cell power systems relative to solar array/battery and nuclear systems, discuss the unique and enhanced missions that fuel cell power systems enable, and discuss the common technology and system attributes possible for robotic and human exploration to maximize scientific return and minimize cost and risk to both. Progress made to date at the Johnson Space Center on an ISRU producible reactant, Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell based power plant project to demonstrate the concept in conjunction with rover applications will be presented in detail

Estimating Temporal Trend in the Presence of Spatial Complexity: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for a Wetland Plant Population Undergoing Restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations (“zones”) with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity—a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach

Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in Feral Swine

Diseases such as classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease have been eradicated in the United States, but possible reintroductions merit the development of an enhanced surveillance system. Important foreign animal or transboundary diseases like these pose a significant risk to the health of wildlife and livestock in the United States. Wildlife Services (WS) performs surveillance in targeted feral swine (Sus scrofa) populations as part of a comprehensive United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service effort to demonstrate disease-free status in our nation\u27s livestock and wildlife. Surveillance is based on risk assessments which identify high risk states and the vicinity of feral swine to transitional or commercial swine production facilities. During 2007 and 2008, WS sampled and tested (n = 3661) feral swine. CSF was not detected in feral swine in the United States through this surveillance effort

Multidimensional Geriatric Assessment: Back to the Future Preclinical Disability as a Risk Factor for Falls in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Background. Falls are common and serious problems in older adults. The goal of this study was to examine whether preclinical disability predicts incident falls in a European population of community-dwelling older adults. Methods. Secondary data analysis was performed on a population-based longitudinal study of 1644 community-dwelling older adults living in London, U.K.; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland. Data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using a self-administered multidimensional health risk appraisal questionnaire, including validated questions on falls, mobility disability status (high function, preclinical disability, task difficulty), and demographic and health-related characteristics. Associations were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results. Overall incidence of falls was 24%, and increased by worsening mobility disability status: high function (17%), preclinical disability (32%), task difficulty (40%), test-of-trend p <.003. In multivariate analysis adjusting for other fall risk factors, preclinical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5), task difficulty (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6) and history of falls (OR = 4.7, 95% CI, 3.5-6.3) were the strongest significant predictors of falls. In stratified multivariate analyses, preclinical disability equally predicted falls in participants with (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and without history of falls (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). Conclusions. This study provides longitudinal evidence that self-reported preclinical disability predicts incident falls at 1-year follow-up independent of other self-reported fall risk factors. Multidimensional geriatric assessment that includes preclinical disability may provide a unique early warning system as well as potential targets for interventio

USDA and State/Tribal Cooperator Summary for 2006/2007 National Early Detection System for HPAI in Wild Migratory Birds: Accomplishments, Findings, and Future Direction

In late 2005, at the request of the Homeland Security Council\u27s Policy Coordinating Committee for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness, the United States Departments of Agriculture (USDA) and Interior began developing a United States Interagency Strategic Plan for the early detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) introduction into North America by wild migratory birds. This plan was stepped down by various regional, state, and tribal entities and was implemented nationwide in mid-2006. USDA funded Federal, State, and Tribal cooperators began with a goal of collecting over 75,000 surveillance samples from wild migratory birds during the 2006/2007 surveillance period. The 2006 accomplishments, findings, and Al surveillance results are reported. The USDA\u27s HPAI surveillance strategies and goals are discussed for the 2007 sampling season

LIMITED ANTIBODY EVIDENCE OF EXPOSURE TO MYCOBACTERIUM BOVIS IN FERAL SWINE (\u3ci\u3eSUS SCROFA\u3c/i\u3e) IN THE USA

Bovine tuberculosis is a chronic disease of cattle (Bos taurus) caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium bovis. Efforts have been made in the US to eradicate the disease in cattle, but spillover into wildlife and subsequent spillback have impeded progress in some states. In particular, infection in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) has been followed by infection in cattle in some Midwestern states. Infection has also been documented in feral swine (Sus scrofa) on the Hawaiian island of Molokai and in various European countries, but no large-scale survey of antibody exposure to the bacteria has been conducted in feral swine in the US. We tested 488 sera from feral swine collected near previously documented outbreaks of bovine tuberculosis in cattle and captive cervids, in addition to 2,237 feral swine sera collected across the US from 1 October 2013 to 30 September 2014. While all but one of the samples were antibody negative, the results are important for establishing baseline negative data since feral swine are capable reservoirs and could be implicated in future outbreaks of the disease

Influenza A Virus H5–specific Antibodies in Mute Swans (\u3ci\u3eCygnus olor\u3c/i\u3e) in the USA

The use of serologic assays for influenza A virus (IAV) surveillance in wild birds has increased because of the availability of commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Recently, an H5-specific blocking ELISA (bELISA) was shown to reliably detect H5-specific antibodies to low- and highpathogenic H5 viruses in experimentally infected waterfowl. Mute Swans (Cygnus olor) were frequently associated with highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreaks in Europe and may have a similar role if highly pathogenic H5N1 is introduced into North America. We measured the prevalence of antibodies to the nucleoprotein and H5 protein in Mute Swans using three serologic assays. We collected 340 serum samples from Mute Swans in Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island, US. We detected antibodies to the IAV nucleoprotein in 66.2% (225/340) of the samples. We detected H5-specific antibodies in 62.9% (214/340) and 18.8% (64/340) using a modified H5 bELISA protocol and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay, respectively. The modified H5 bELISA protocol detected significantly more positive samples than did the manufacturer’s protocol. We also tested 46 samples using virus neutralization. Neutralization results had high agreement with the modified H5 bELISA protocol and detected a higher prevalence than did the HI assay. These results indicate that North American Mute Swans have high nucleoprotein and H5 antibody prevalences