Syndromic surveillance in Vanuatu since Cyclone Pam: a descriptive study

In 2012, Vanuatu designed and implemented a syndromic surveillance system based on the guidelines developed by the Pacific Community and the World Health Organization to provide early warning of outbreaks and other important public health events. Four core syndromes were endorsed for surveillance: acute fever and rash, prolonged fever, influenza-like illness and acute watery diarrhoea. In March 2015, Vanuatu was struck by Cyclone Pam, after which several important changes and improvements to the country's syndromic surveillance were made. To date, there has been no formal evaluation of whether regular reports are occurring or that core syndromes are being documented. We therefore carried out a descriptive study in the 11 sentinel sites in Vanuatu conducting syndromic surveillance between July and December 2015. There was a total of 53 822 consultations which were higher in the first 13 weeks (n = 29 622) compared with the last 13 weeks (n = 24 200). During the six months, there were no cases of acute fever and rash or prolonged fever. There were cases with influenza-like illness from week 27 to 35, but no case was reported after week 35. Acute watery diarrhoea occurred in one or two cases per week during the whole study period. For these two core syndromes, there were generally more females than males, and about one third were children aged under 5 years. In conclusion, Vanuatu implemented changes to its new syndromic surveillance system from July to December 2015, although laboratory components had not yet been incorporated. The laboratory components are working in 2016 and will be the subject of a further report

Experiences of conditional and unconditional cash transfers intended for improving health outcomes and health service use: a qualitative evidence synthesis

Background It is well known that poverty is associated with ill health and that ill health can result in direct and indirect costs that can perpetuate poverty. Social protection, which includes policies and programmes intended to prevent and reduce poverty in times of ill health, could be one way to break this vicious cycle. Social protection, particularly cash transfers, also has the potential to promote healthier behaviours, including healthcare seeking. Although social protection, particularly conditional and unconditional cash transfers, has been widely studied, it is not well known how recipients experience social protection interventions, and what unintended effects such interventions can cause. Objectives The aim of this review was to explore how conditional and unconditional cash transfer social protection interventions with a health outcome are experienced and perceived by their recipients. Search methods We searched Epistemonikos, MEDLINE, CINAHL, Social Services Abstracts, Global Index Medicus, Scopus, AnthroSource and EconLit from the start of the database to 5 June 2020. We combined this with reference checking, citation searching, grey literature and contact with authors to identify additional studies. We reran all strategies in July 2022, and the new studies are awaiting classification. Selection criteria We included primary studies, using qualitative methods or mixed‐methods studies with qualitative research reporting on recipients’ experiences of cash transfer interventions where health outcomes were evaluated. Recipients could be adult patients of healthcare services, the general adult population as recipients of cash targeted at themselves or directed at children. Studies could be evaluated on any mental or physical health condition or cash transfer mechanism. Studies could come from any country and be in any language. Two authors independently selected studies. Data collection and analysis We used a multi‐step purposive sampling framework for selecting studies, starting with geographical representation, followed by health condition, and richness of data. Key data were extracted by the authors into Excel. Methodological limitations were assessed independently using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) criteria by two authors. Data were synthesised using meta‐ethnography, and confidence in findings was assessed using the Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research (GRADE‐CERQual) approach. Main results We included 127 studies in the review and sampled 41 of these studies for our analysis. Thirty‐two further studies were found after the updated search on 5 July 2022 and are awaiting classification. The sampled studies were from 24 different countries: 17 studies were from the African region, seven were from the region of the Americas, seven were from the European region, six were from the South‐East Asian region, three from the Western Pacific region and one study was multiregional, covering both the African and the Eastern Mediterranean regions. These studies primarily explored the views and experiences of cash transfer recipients with different health conditions, such as infectious diseases, disabilities and long‐term illnesses, sexual and reproductive health, and maternal and child health. Our GRADE‐CERQual assessment indicated we had mainly moderate‐ and high‐confidence findings. We found that recipients perceived the cash transfers as necessary and helpful for immediate needs and, in some cases, helpful for longer‐term benefits. However, across conditional and unconditional programmes, recipients often felt that the amount given was too little in relation to their total needs. They also felt that the cash alone was not enough to change their behaviour and, to change behaviour, additional types of support would be required. The cash transfer was reported to have important effects on empowerment, autonomy and agency, but also in some settings, recipients experienced pressure from family or programme staff on cash usage. The cash transfer was reported to improve social cohesion and reduce intrahousehold tension. However, in settings where some received the cash and others did not, the lack of an equal approach caused tension, suspicion and conflict. Recipients also reported stigma in terms of cash transfer programme assessment processes and eligibility, as well as inappropriate eligibility processes. Across settings, recipients experienced barriers in accessing the cash transfer programme, and some refused or were hesitant to receive the cash. Some recipients found cash transfer programmes more acceptable when they agreed with the programme's goals and processes. Authors' conclusions Our findings highlight the impact of the sociocultural context on the functioning and interaction between the individual, family and cash transfer programmes. Even where the goals of a cash transfer programme are explicitly health‐related, the outcomes may be far broader than health alone and may include, for example, reduced stigma, empowerment and increased agency of the individual. When measuring programme outcomes, therefore, these broader impacts could be considered for understanding the health and well‐being benefits of cash transfers

Development of treatment-decision algorithms for children evaluated for pulmonary tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Many children with pulmonary tuberculosis remain undiagnosed and untreated with related high morbidity and mortality. Recent advances in childhood tuberculosis algorithm development have incorporated prediction modelling, but studies so far have been small and localised, with limited generalisability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of currently used diagnostic algorithms and to use prediction modelling to develop evidence-based algorithms to assist in tuberculosis treatment decision making for children presenting to primary health-care centres. Methods: For this meta-analysis, we identified individual participant data from a WHO public call for data on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents and referral from childhood tuberculosis experts. We included studies that prospectively recruited consecutive participants younger than 10 years attending health-care centres in countries with a high tuberculosis incidence for clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis. We collated individual participant data including clinical, bacteriological, and radiological information and a standardised reference classification of pulmonary tuberculosis. Using this dataset, we first retrospectively evaluated the performance of several existing treatment-decision algorithms. We then used the data to develop two multivariable prediction models that included features used in clinical evaluation of pulmonary tuberculosis-one with chest x-ray features and one without-and we investigated each model's generalisability using internal-external cross-validation. The parameter coefficient estimates of the two models were scaled into two scoring systems to classify tuberculosis with a prespecified sensitivity target. The two scoring systems were used to develop two pragmatic, treatment-decision algorithms for use in primary health-care settings. Findings: Of 4718 children from 13 studies from 12 countries, 1811 (38·4%) were classified as having pulmonary tuberculosis: 541 (29·9%) bacteriologically confirmed and 1270 (70·1%) unconfirmed. Existing treatment-decision algorithms had highly variable diagnostic performance. The scoring system derived from the prediction model that included clinical features and features from chest x-ray had a combined sensitivity of 0·86 [95% CI 0·68-0·94] and specificity of 0·37 [0·15-0·66] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system derived from the model that included only clinical features had a combined sensitivity of 0·84 [95% CI 0·66-0·93] and specificity of 0·30 [0·13-0·56] against a composite reference standard. The scoring system from each model was placed after triage steps, including assessment of illness acuity and risk of poor tuberculosis-related outcomes, to develop treatment-decision algorithms. Interpretation: We adopted an evidence-based approach to develop pragmatic algorithms to guide tuberculosis treatment decisions in children, irrespective of the resources locally available. This approach will empower health workers in primary health-care settings with high tuberculosis incidence and limited resources to initiate tuberculosis treatment in children to improve access to care and reduce tuberculosis-related mortality. These algorithms have been included in the operational handbook accompanying the latest WHO guidelines on the management of tuberculosis in children and adolescents. Future prospective evaluation of algorithms, including those developed in this work, is necessary to investigate clinical performance. Funding: WHO, US National Institutes of Health

Ethics and benefits of systematic screening for active tuberculosis

Systematic screening for active tuberculosis (TB) provides public health benefits and is part of the End TB Strategy. However, two of WHO's generic principles for screening for disease state that the natural history of the disease in question must be well understood and that there must be benefits to earlier treatment. TB fulfills the first of these only in part, the other has been less well documented. This paper considers the ethical implications of uncertain individual benefits from screening and the current research gaps

Spatial patterns of tuberculosis and HIV co-infection in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are the leading causes of infectious-disease-related deaths in Ethiopia, but little is known about their spatial distribution across the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial patterns of TB and HIV co-infection in Ethiopia at the district level. METHODS:We conducted an ecological study using TB and HIV data reported from all regions of Ethiopia through the national Health Management Information System (HMIS), between June 2015 and June 2017. Spatial clustering was assessed using Moran's I statistic and Getis-Ord statistic. Spatial binomial regression models were constructed separately for the prevalence of TB among people living with HIV and for the prevalence of HIV among TB patients, with and without spatial components using a Bayesian approach. RESULTS:A total of 1,830,880 HIV and 192,359 TB patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of HIV among TB patients was 7.34%; hotspots were observed in districts located in Amhara, Afar, and Gambela regions, and cold spots were observed in Oromiya and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People (SNNP) regions. The prevalence of TB among people living with HIV varied from 0.7% in Oromia region to 14.5% in Afar region. Hotspots of TB prevalence among people living with HIV were observed in districts located in Gambela, Afar, Somali, and Oromiya regions; whereas the cold spots were observed in districts located in Amhara and Tigray regions. The ecological-level factors associated with the prevalence of TB among people living with HIV were low wealth index (OR: 1.49; 95% CrI: 1.05, 2.05), low adult literacy rate (OR: 0.67; 95% CrI: 0.46, 0.94), and distance to an international border (OR: 0.61; 95% CrI: 0.40, 0.91). The factors associated with the prevalence of HIV among TB patients were poor health care access (OR: 0.76; 95% CrI: 0.59, 0.95), low wealth index (OR: 1.31; 95% CrI: 1.01, 1.67), and low adult literacy rate (OR: 1.37; 95% CrI: 1.03, 1.78). CONCLUSION:Our study provides evidence for geographic clustering of TB/HIV co-infection in Ethiopia. Health care access, proximity to international borders, and demographic factors such as low wealth index and adult literacy were significantly associated with the prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection

Tuberculosis notifications, characteristics and treatment outcomes: urban vs. rural Solomon Islands, 2000-2011

Setting: All provincial tuberculosis (TB) management units in the Solomon Islands. Objective: To compare TB notifications, characteristics and treatment outcomes in urban vs. rural areas. Design: A retrospective descriptive cohort study involving record review and data extraction from provincial TB and laboratory registers and treatment charts from 2000 to 2011. Results: Of 4137 TB cases notified, 1364 (33%) were from urban and 3227 (67%) from rural areas. Notification rates per year of study were consistently higher in urban areas (104–150 per 100 000 population) than in rural areas (49–70/100 000). Cases in rural areas were more likely to have smear-negative pulmonary TB and less likely to have extra-pulmonary TB (P < 0.001). TB cases in rural areas were more likely to die from TB than those from urban areas (3.2% vs. 5.9%). In contrast, TB cases in rural areas were less likely to default (2.8% vs. 1.8%). Conclusion: TB notification rates were much higher in urban than in rural areas in the Solomon Islands. Rural patients are more likely to die from the disease but are slightly less likely to default. Further research is required to explore the possibility of under-reporting in rural areas and to improve treatment outcomes

Tuberculosis case burden and treatment outcomes in children, adults and older adults, Vanuatu, 2007-2011

Setting: All five DOTS centres in Vanuatu. Objectives: To determine across the age spectrum the tuberculosis (TB) case burden, disease pattern and treatment outcomes in patients registered between 2007 and 2011. Design: Retrospective cohort study involving reviews of TB registers and treatment cards. Results: Of 588 TB patients, 142 (24%) were children (aged 0–14 years), 327 (56%) adults (aged 15–54 years) and 119 (20%) were older adults (aged ⩾55 years; subdivided into 55–64 and ⩾65 years); 568 were new patients, 13 had been treated previously and 7 had unknown status. Compared with adults, children with new TB had a higher prevalence of extra-pulmonary TB (75% vs. 34%, OR 5.7, 95%CI 3.6–9.0) and a lower prevalence of smear-positive pulmonary TB (11% vs. 45%, OR 0.15, 95%CI 0.1–0.3), while older adults with new TB had a higher prevalence of smear-negative pulmonary TB (38% vs. 21%, OR 2.4, 95%CI 1.5–3.8). Overall TB treatment success was 83%, but in the second category of older adults (⩾65 years) treatment success was 67% and case fatality was 18%. Conclusion: Children and older adults constitute 45% of the TB burden in Vanuatu. Differences in disease patterns and poorer treatment outcomes in older adults have implications for policy and practice

Spatial patterns of multidrug resistant tuberculosis and relationships to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia

<div><p>Background</p><p>Understanding the geographical distribution of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in high TB burden countries such as Ethiopia is crucial for effective control of TB epidemics in these countries, and thus globally. We present the first spatial analysis of multidrug resistant tuberculosis, and its relationship to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia.</p><p>Methods</p><p>An ecological study was conducted using data on patients diagnosed with MDR-TB at the University of Gondar Hospital MDR-TB treatment centre, for the period 2010 to 2015. District level population data were extracted from the Ethiopia National and Regional Census Report. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Moran’s I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach with Gibbs sampling, in WinBUGS.</p><p>Results</p><p>A total of 264 MDR-TB patients were included in the analysis. The overall crude incidence rate of MDR-TB for the six-year period was 3.0 cases per 100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was observed in Metema (21 cases per 100,000 population) and Humera (18 cases per 100,000 population) districts; whereas nine districts had zero cases. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was observed in districts located in the Ethiopia-Sudan and Ethiopia-Eritrea border regions, where large numbers of seasonal migrants live. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was positively associated with urbanization (RR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04) and the percentage of men (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.99) in the districts; after accounting for these factors there was no residual spatial clustering.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>Spatial clustering of MDR-TB, fully explained by demographic factors (urbanization and percent male), was detected in the border regions of northwest Ethiopia, in locations where seasonal migrants live and work. Cross-border initiatives including options for mobile TB treatment and follow up are important for the effective control of MDR-TB in the region.</p></div