Social forecasting: a literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior

The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diverse amount data, and at the same time it requires new organizational and individual competences to deal with the new forms and huge volumes of information. Our study aimed to outline the research areas funded by the US defense and intelligence agencies with respect to social forecasting. Based on bibliometric techniques, we clustered 2688 articles funded by US defense or intelligence agencies in five research areas: a) Complex networks, b) Social networks, c) Human reasoning, d) Optimization algorithms, and e) Neuroscience. After that, we analyzed qualitatively the most cited papers in each area. Our analysis identified that the research areas are compatible with the US intelligence doctrine. Besides that, we considered that the research areas could be incorporated in the work of security forces provided that basic training is offered. The basic training would not only enhance capabilities of law enforcement agencies but also help safeguard against (unwitting) biases and mistakes in the analysis of data

Perceived neighborhood environmental attributes associated with walking and cycling for transport among adult residents of 17 cities in 12 countries: The IPEN study

Introduction: Prevalence of walking and cycling for transport is low and varies greatly across countries. Few studies have examined neighborhood perceptions related to walking and cycling for transport in different countries. Therefore, it is challenging to prioritize appropriate built-environment interventions. Objectives: The aim of this study was to examine the strength and shape of the relationship between adults’ neighborhood perceptions and walking and cycling for transport across diverse environments. Methods: As part of the International Physical activity and Environment Network (IPEN) adult project, self-reported data were taken from 13,745 adults (18–65 years) living in physically and socially diverse neighborhoods in 17 cities across 12 countries. Neighborhood perceptions were measured using the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale, and walking and cycling for transport were measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire–Long Form. Generalized additive mixed models were used to model walking or cycling for transport during the last seven days with neighborhood perceptions. Interactions by city were explored. Results: Walking-for-transport outcomes were significantly associated with perceived residential density, land use mix–access, street connectivity, aesthetics, and safety. Any cycling for transport was significantly related to perceived land use mix–access, street connectivity, infrastructure, aesthetics, safety, and perceived distance to destinations. Between-city differences existed for some attributes in relation to walking or cycling for transport. Conclusions: Many perceived environmental attributes supported both cycling and walking; however, highly walkable environments may not support cycling for transport. People appear to walk for transport despite safety concerns. These findings can guide the implementation of global health strategies

The Galactic Inner Halo: Searching for White Dwarfs and Measuring the Fundamental Galactic Constant, Vo/Ro

We establish an extragalactic, zero-motion frame of reference within the deepest optical image of a globular star cluster, an HST 123-orbit exposure of M4 (GO 8679, cycle 9). The line of sight beyond M4 (l,b (deg) = 351,16) intersects the inner halo (spheroid) of our Galaxy at a tangent-point distance of 7.6 kpc (for Ro = 8 kpc). We isolate these spheroid stars from the cluster based on their proper motions over the 6-year baseline between these and previous epoch HST data (GO 5461, cycle 4). Distant background galaxies are also found on the same sight line using image-morphology techniques. This fixed reference frame allows us to independently determine the fundamental Galactic constant, Vo/Ro = 25.3 +/- 2.6 km/s/kpc, thus providing a velocity of the Local Standard of Rest, v = 202.7 +/- 24.7 km/s for Ro = 8.0 +/- 0.5 kpc. Secondly, the galaxies allow a direct measurement of M4's absolute proper motion, mu_total = 22.57 +/- 0.76 mas/yr, in excellent agreement with recent studies. The clear separation of galaxies from stars in these deep data also allow us to search for inner-halo white dwarfs. We model the conventional Galactic contributions of white dwarfs along our line of sight and predict 7.9 (thin disk), 6.3 (thick disk) and 2.2 (spheroid) objects to the limiting magnitude at which we can clearly delineate stars from galaxies (V = 29). An additional 2.5 objects are expected from a 20% white dwarf dark halo consisting of 0.5 Mo objects, 70% of which are of the DA type. After considering the kinematics and morphology of the objects in our data set, we find the number of white dwarfs to be consistent with the predictions for each of the conventional populations. However, we do not find any evidence for dark halo white dwarfs.Comment: 31 pages, including 6 diagrams and 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Ap

Perceived Neighborhood Environmental Attributes Associated with Walking and Cycling for Transport among Adult Residents of 17 Cities in 12 Countries: The IPEN Study

Introduction Prevalence of walking and cycling for transport is low and varies greatly across countries. Few studies have examined neighborhood perceptions related to walking and cycling for transport in different countries. Therefore, it is challenging to prioritize appropriate built-environment interventions. Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the strength and shape of the relationship between adults’ neighborhood perceptions and walking and cycling for transport across diverse environments. Methods As part of the International Physical activity and Environment Network (IPEN) adult project, self-reported data were taken from 13,745 adults (18–65 years) living in physically and socially diverse neighborhoods in 17 cities across 12 countries. Neighborhood perceptions were measured using the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale, and walking and cycling for transport were measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire–Long Form. Generalized additive mixed models were used to model walking or cycling for transport during the last seven days with neighborhood perceptions. Interactions by city were explored. Results Walking-for-transport outcomes were significantly associated with perceived residential density, land use mix–access, street connectivity, aesthetics, and safety. Any cycling for transport was significantly related to perceived land use mix–access, street connectivity, infrastructure, aesthetics, safety, and perceived distance to destinations. Between-city differences existed for some attributes in relation to walking or cycling for transport. Conclusions Many perceived environmental attributes supported both cycling and walking; however, highly walkable environments may not support cycling for transport. People appear to walk for transport despite safety concerns. These findings can guide the implementation of global health strategies

Three decades of deep water mass investigation in the Weddell Sea (1984–2014): Temporal variability and changes

The role of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in changing the ocean circulation and controlling climate variability is widely known. However, a comprehensive understanding of the relative contribution and variability of Antarctic regional deep water mass varieties that form AABW is still lacking. Using a high-quality dataset comprising three decades of observational shipboard surveys in the Weddell Sea (1984–2014), we updated the structure, composition and hydrographic properties variability of the Weddell Sea deep-layer, and quantified the contribution of the source waters composing Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW) in its main formation zone. Shifts in WSBW hydrographic properties towards less dense varieties likely equate to less WSBW being produced over time. WSBW is primarily composed of 71±4% of modified-Warm Deep Water (mWDW) and 29±4% of Dense Shelf Waters, with the latter composed by ~two-thirds (19±2%) of High Salinity Shelf Water and ~one-third (10±6%) of Ice Shelf Water. Further, we show evidence that WSBW variability in the eastern Weddell Sea is driven by changes in the inflow of Dense Shelf Waters and bottom water from the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean. This was observed through the rise of the WSBW contribution to the total mixture after 2005, following a twenty-year period (1984–2004) of decreasing contribution

Spatiotemporal variability of dissolved inorganic macronutrients along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (1996–2019)

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is a key region of the Southern Ocean due to its complex ocean dynamics, distinct water mass sources, and the climate-driven changes taking place in the region. Despite the importance of macronutrients in supporting strong biological carbon uptake and storage, little is known about their spatiotemporal variability along the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Hence, we explored for the first time a 24-year time series (1996–2019) in this region to understand the processes involved in the spatial and interannual variability of macronutrients. We found high macronutrient concentrations, even in surface waters and during strong phytoplankton blooms. Minimum concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; 16 μmol kg−1), phosphate (0.7 μmol kg−1), and silicic acid (40 μmol kg−1) in surface waters are higher than those recorded in surrounding regions. The main source of macronutrients is the intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water and its modified variety, while local sources (organic matter remineralization, water mass mixing, and mesoscale structures) can enhance their spatiotemporal variability. However, we identified a depletion in silicic acid due to the influence of Dense Shelf Water from the Weddell Sea. Macronutrient concentrations show substantial interannual variability driven by the balance between the intrusions of modified Circumpolar Deep Water and advection of Dense Shelf Water, which is largely modulated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and to some extent by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These findings are critical to improving our understanding of the natural variability of this Southern Ocean ecosystem and how it is responding to climate changes

A novel hydrographic gridded data set for the northern Antarctic Peninsula

The northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) is a highly dynamic transitional zone between the subpolarpolar and oceanic-coastal environments, and it is located in an area affected by intense climate change, including intensification and spatial shifts of the westerlies as well as atmospheric and oceanic warming. In the NAP area, the water masses originate mainly from the Bellingshausen and Weddell seas, which create a marked regional dichotomy thermohaline characteristic. Although the NAP area has relatively easy access when compared to other Southern Ocean environments, our understanding of the water masses distribution and the dynamical processes affecting the variability of the region is still limited. That limitation is closely linked to the sparse data coverage, as is commonly the case in most Southern Ocean environments. This work provides a novel seasonal three-dimensional high-resolution hydrographic gridded data set for the NAP (version 1), namely the NAPv1.0. Hydrographic measurements from 1990 to 2019 comprising data collected by conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD) casts; sensors from the Marine Mammals Exploring the Oceans Pole to Pole (MEOP) consortium; and Argo floats have been optimally interpolated to produce maps of in situ temperature, practical salinity, and dissolved oxygen at 10 km spatial resolution and 90 depth levels. The water masses and oceanographic features in this regional gridded product are more accurate than other climatologies and state estimate products currently available. The data sets are available in netCDF format at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4420006 (Dotto et al., 2021). The novel and comprehensive data sets presented here for the NAPv1.0 product are a valuable tool to be used in studies addressing climatological changes in the unique NAP region since they provide accurate initial conditions for ocean models and improve the end of the 20th-And early 21st-century ocean mean-state representation for that area