A Bayesian Framework for Combining Valuation Estimates

Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estimates. Moreover, the valuation estimates typically disagree with market price. Can one form a superior valuation estimate by averaging over the individual estimates, including market price? This article suggests a Bayesian framework for combining two or more estimates into a superior valuation estimate. The framework justifies the common practice of averaging over several estimates to arrive at a final point estimate.Comment: Citations at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=240309 Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 30.3 (2008) forthcomin

Dealing with mobility: Understanding access anytime, anywhere

The rapid and accelerating move towards the adoption and use of mobile technologies has increasingly provided people and organisations with the ability to work away from the office and on the move. The new ways of working afforded by these technologies are often characterised in terms of access to information and people ‘anytime, anywhere’. This paper presents a study of mobile workers that highlights different facets of access to remote people and information, and different facets of anytime, anywhere. Four key factors in mobile work are identified from the study: the role of planning, working in ‘dead time’, accessing remote technological and informational resources, and monitoring the activities of remote colleagues. By reflecting on these issues, we can better understand the role of technology and artefact use in mobile work and identify the opportunities for the development of appropriate technological solutions to support mobile workers

Young Hispanics’ Motivations to Use Smartphones: A Three-Country Comparative Study

The fast-changing digital media environment has provoked new communication processes in contemporary society. In particular, younger generations engage in new ways of interacting with each other thanks to the constant emergence of digital technologies and mobile communication outlets. New habits arise every year, changing not only our interpersonal communication, but also our overall consumption of information and entertainment content, with video and instant messaging apps being particularly popular among younger populations. This study employs a mixed method approach to measure young Hispanics’ motivations to use smartphones in Chile, Mexico and the U.S. The subjects, 18 to 25 years old, participated in focus groups and surveys conducted in 2015: 55 Hispanic smartphone users joined focus groups whilst 1,403 respondents completed surveys in Chile, Mexico and Texas (U.S.). Results show similarities and differences in young Hispanics’ motivations and uses of smartphones, including the personal and commercial value they ascribe to information, time spent on social networks, and their preferences for mobile devices compared to other media. The findings are used to develop three archetypes of young users, based on smartphone’s motivations and uses. Utilizing factor analysis scores, a linear regression analysis was conducted to identify the main traits of these three archetypes: “always connected,” “entertained,” and “secure.

Material Food Probes:Personalized 3D Printed Flavors for Intimate Communication

Interactions with food are complex, integrating rich multisensory experiences within emotionally meaningful social contexts. Yet, the opportunities to explore food as material resource for emotional communication have been less explored. We describe a two-month project with 5 couples centered on the co-design of personalized flavors for intimate communication, which were experienced through an explorative three day study involving a 3D food printer in participants’ homes. We discuss the value of our findings indicating preferences for both remembered and imagined positive flavors and their integration in focal intimacy practices to support emotional coregulation. We also discuss material food probes and their value for exploring and inspiring both design-with and design-around food

Long-term changes in coarse woody debris abundance in three Appalachian headwater streams with differing best management practices

IntroductionTimber harvests influence coarse woody debris (CWD) dynamics both initially and long-term—contributing a significant amount of CWD as slash immediately after harvest, but also removing some or all of the mature trees necessary to produce CWD over time. Whereas shelterwood and other similar timber harvest systems retain varying amounts of the overstory, preserving CWD production after harvest, commercial clearcutting essentially eliminates sources of fresh CWD until regenerating trees are large enough to contribute CWD through fallen limbs or trunks, often decades after harvest. Forestry best management practices (BMPs) are critical for reducing the water quality impacts of timber harvest, but their effects on riparian and stream CWD are not well understood.MethodsThe current project explores CWD dynamics (surveyed in 2001, 2004, 2009, and 2020) in three eastern Kentucky watersheds receiving differing timber harvest treatments in 1983: unharvested control, BMPs (clearcut with a protected streamside management zone), and no BMPs (clearcut).ResultsAnalysis of hydrology data over the period of record demonstrated significant flooding in 2004 that likely “reset” CWD in the study watersheds. Coarse woody debris volume was higher in control (3.33 m3/ha) than no BMP (1.03 m3/ha) in 2020, with CWD accumulation rates ranging from 0.039 m3/ha in the no BMP watershed to 0.19 m3/ha in the control.DiscussionWhile not significantly different, CWD volume was nominally higher in the BMP watershed than the No BMP watershed, suggesting that, in addition to their many other benefits, streamside management zones help facilitate CWD provisioning during stand initiation after a commercial clearcut harvest. Furthermore, this study suggests that provisioning of CWD may not recover after clearcut harvesting for 100 years or more

Transcriptome analysis reveals immune pathways underlying resistance in the common carp Cyprinus carpio against the oomycete Aphanomyces invadans

Infection with Aphanomyces invadans is a serious fish disease with major global impacts. Despite affecting over 160 fish species, some of the species like the common carp Cyprinus carpio are resistant to A. invadans infection. In the present study, we investigated the transcriptomes of head kidney of common carp experimentally infected with A. invadans. In time course analysis, 5288 genes were found to be differentially expressed (DEGs), of which 731 were involved in 21 immune pathways. The analysis of immune-related DEGs suggested that efficient processing and presentation of A. invadans antigens, enhanced phagocytosis, recognition of pathogen-associated molecular patterns, and increased recruitment of leukocytes to the sites of infection contribute to resistance of common carp against A. invadans. Herein, we provide a systematic understanding of the disease resistance mechanisms in common carp at molecular level as a valuable resource for developing disease management strategies for this devastating fish-pathogenic oomycete