Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman ρ = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman ρ = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19

The magnitude and timing of recalled immunity after breakthrough infection is shaped by SARS-CoV-2 variants

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 protects from infection and improves clinical outcomes in breakthrough infections, likely reflecting residual vaccine-elicited immunity and recall of immunological memory. Here, we define the early kinetics of spike-specific humoral and cellular immunity after vaccination of seropositive individuals and after Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Early longitudinal sampling revealed the timing and magnitude of recall, with the phenotypic activation of B cells preceding an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. While vaccination of seropositive individuals resulted in robust recall of humoral and T cell immunity, recall of vaccine-elicited responses was delayed and variable in magnitude during breakthrough infections and depended on the infecting variant of concern. While the delayed kinetics of immune recall provides a potential mechanism for the lack of early control of viral replication, the recall of antibodies coincided with viral clearance and likely underpins the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19

The effect of mixing on the extrusion-spheronisation of a micro-crystalline cellulose paste.

The effect of mixer shear strain rate on the performance of a model micro-crystalline cellulose pharmaceutical paste undergoing extrusion-spheronisation was studied using a laboratory scale planetary mixer and a screw-based mixer. The maximum shear strain rate in each mixer was estimated. Five pastes were prepared, one each at 97 and 265 s(-1) in the planetary mixer, and one each at 304, 988 and 2220 s(-1) in the screw mixer. The rheology of the pastes was quantified by Benbow-Bridgwater characterisation based on ram extrusion. Each paste was spheronised and pellet size and shape distributions obtained by automated size analysis. Mixer type (rather than shear strain rate) was found to have the strongest influence on the paste properties, with the screw-mixed material having a higher yield strength and forming smaller pellets with a narrower size distribution when spheronised under identical conditions.Support for MPB is gratefully received from Sandvik Hyperion and Ceratizit GmbH.This is the accepted manuscript. It is currently embargoed until 18/12/2015. The final version is available from Elsevier at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037851731400925

Monoclonal antibody levels and protection from COVID-19

Multiple monoclonal antibodies have been shown to be effective for both prophylaxis and therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we aggregate data from randomized controlled trials assessing the use of monoclonal antibodies (mAb) in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We use data on the in vivo concentration of mAb and the associated protection from COVID-19 over time to model the dose-response relationship of mAb for prophylaxis. We estimate that 50% protection from COVID-19 is achieved with a mAb concentration of 96-fold of the in vitro IC50 (95% CI: 32—285). This relationship provides a tool for predicting the prophylactic efficacy of new mAb and against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Finally, we compare the relationship between neutralization titer and protection from COVID-19 after either mAb treatment or vaccination. We find no significant difference between the 50% protective titer for mAb and vaccination, although sample sizes limited the power to detect a difference

Single nucleotide polymorphisms to discriminate different classes of hybrid between wild Atlantic salmon and aquaculture escapees

Many wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations are threatened by introgressive hybridization from domesticated fish that have escaped from aquaculture facilities. A detailed understanding of the hybridization dynamics between wild salmon and aquaculture escapees requires discrimination of different hybrid classes; however, markers currently available to discriminate the two types of parental genome have limited power to do this. Using a high-density Atlantic salmon single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, in combination with pooled-sample allelotyping and an F-st outlier approach, we identified 200 SNPs that differentiated an important Atlantic salmon stock from the escapees potentially hybridizing with it. By simulating multiple generations of wild-escapee hybridization, involving wild populations in two major phylogeographic lineages and a genetically diverse set of escapees, we showed that both the complete set of SNPs and smaller subsets could reliably assign individuals to different hybrid classes up to the third hybrid (F3) generation. This set of markers will be a useful tool for investigating the genetic interactions between native wild fish and aquaculture escapees in many Atlantic salmon populations

Determinants of passive antibody efficacy in SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Randomised controlled trials of passive antibodies as treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19 have reported variable efficacy. However, the determinants of efficacy have not been identified. We aimed to assess how the dose and timing of administration affect treatment outcome. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we extracted data from published studies of passive antibody treatment from Jan 1, 2019, to Jan 31, 2023, that were identified by searching multiple databases, including MEDLINE, PubMed, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included only randomised controlled trials of passive antibody administration for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19. To compare administered antibody dose between different treatments, we used data on in-vitro neutralisation titres to normalise dose by antibody potency. We used mixed-effects regression and model fitting to analyse the relationship between timing, dose and efficacy. Findings: We found 58 randomised controlled trials that investigated passive antibody therapies for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. Earlier clinical stage at treatment initiation was highly predictive of the efficacy of both monoclonal antibodies (p<0·0001) and convalescent plasma therapy (p=0·030) in preventing progression to subsequent stages, with either prophylaxis or treatment in outpatients showing the greatest effects. For the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19, we found a significant association between the dose administered and efficacy in preventing hospitalisation (relative risk 0·77; p<0·0001). Using this relationship, we predicted that no approved monoclonal antibody was expected to provide more than 30% efficacy against some omicron (B.1.1.529) subvariants, such as BQ.1.1. Interpretation: Early administration before hospitalisation and sufficient doses of passive antibody therapy are crucial to achieving high efficacy in preventing clinical progression. The relationship between dose and efficacy provides a framework for the rational assessment of future passive antibody prophylaxis and treatment strategies for COVID-19. Funding: The Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, the University of New South Wales, Monash University, Haematology Society of Australia and New Zealand, Leukaemia Foundation, and the Victorian Government

“It’s just a theory”: trainee science teachers’ misunderstandings of key scientific terminology

Background: This article presents the findings from a survey of 189 pre-service science teachers who were asked to provide definitions of key scientific terms ('theory'; 'fact'; 'law'; 'hypothesis'). The survey was a scoping and mapping exercise to establish the range and variety of definitions. Methods: Graduates on a pre-service science teacher training course were asked to complete a short, free response survey and define key science terminology a >95% response rate was achieved and respondents definitions were categorised according to a best fit model. Results: In some cases, definitions contrary to accepted scientific meanings were given. In other cases, terminology was defined in a wholly non-scientific way, e.g., one-fifth of the respondents defined a ‘law’ in the context of rules that govern society rather than in a scientific context. Science graduates’ definitions and their understanding of key terminology is poor despite their study of science in formal university settings (with many respondents being recent science graduates). Conclusions: Key terminology in science, such as 'theory', 'law', 'fact', 'hypothesis', tends not to be taught and defined with consideration for the differences in meaning that different audiences/users give to them. This article calls for better instruction for pre-service science teachers’ in the importance of accurate and precise definitions of key science terminology in order to better differentiate between the scientific and colloquial usage of key terms

Features of mammalian microRNA promoters emerge from polymerase II chromatin immunoprecipitation data

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short, non-coding RNA regulators of protein coding genes. miRNAs play a very important role in diverse biological processes and various diseases. Many algorithms are able to predict miRNA genes and their targets, but their transcription regulation is still under investigation. It is generally believed that intragenic miRNAs (located in introns or exons of protein coding genes) are co-transcribed with their host genes and most intergenic miRNAs transcribed from their own RNA polymerase II (Pol II) promoter. However, the length of the primary transcripts and promoter organization is currently unknown. Methodology: We performed Pol II chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP)-chip using a custom array surrounding regions of known miRNA genes. To identify the true core transcription start sites of the miRNA genes we developed a new tool (CPPP). We showed that miRNA genes can be transcribed from promoters located several kilobases away and that their promoters share the same general features as those of protein coding genes. Finally, we found evidence that as many as 26% of the intragenic miRNAs may be transcribed from their own unique promoters. Conclusion: miRNA promoters have similar features to those of protein coding genes, but miRNA transcript organization is more complex. © 2009 Corcoran et al

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program