“Without Evidence, there is No Answer”: Uncertainty and Scientific Ethos in the Silent Spring[s] of Rachel Carson

The 50th year anniversary of Rachel Carson’s monumental Silent Spring invites reflection on how the controversy over chemical pesticides shaped environmental discourse in the modern era. This essay focuses on uncertainty as a boundary device that shapes scientific ethos in crucial ways and negotiates a relationship between technical science and public deliberation. Situated in rhetorical analysis, the author takes a comparative approach towards the use of uncertainty and scientific ethos in the Silent Spring controversy. Drawing from Carson’s published book, and from the famous CBS Reports investigative television program seven months after the book’s publication, this essay demonstrates how CBS Reports directly received, and amplified, Carson’s uncertainty frameworks, and used them to drive the public evaluation of scientific ethos. This analysis reveals three ways uncertainty shapes scientific ethos: uncertainty as a probability (ethos of expertise), as a moral certainty (ethos of civic participant), and as an unknown or unconcern (ethos of ignorance). Finally, the author suggests that the circulation of these uncertainty frameworks of scientific ethos helped drive the momentum from the books’ publication, to public evaluation, to policy-making, and suggests these uncertainty frameworks are enduring forces in debates about the role of experts in scientific controversies

Signatures and Spinoffs: Sequences of Ignorance in the Theory/Practice Split of the Ecological Society of America, 1917–1950

In this paper, I demonstrate the rhetorical life of ignorance as a special topos of ecological science. I accomplish this through a topical survey of the genre systems of the Ecological Society of America (ESA), and show how ignorance sequences into larger argumentative signatures that define its disciplinary epistemology. I argue that Ecology is a science with a social praxis and ignoring public application not only underserves the discipline, but is inconsistent with the history of Ecology

Rhetorical Properties of Scientific Uncertainties: Public Engagement in the Carson Scholars Program

Contemporary concerns about public engagement in science communication collaboratives are a pressing area of praxis in rhetoric of science, technology, and medicine. This short paper describes the rhetorical engagements in a science and environmental communication program at the University of Arizona called the Carson Scholars Program. I argue an applied research program on the rhetorical properties of scientific uncertainties is one angle of inquiry where rhetoricians can make valuable contributions in these outreach efforts

Uncertainty, Spheres of Argument, and the Transgressive Ethos of the Science Adviser

This essay seeks to complicate and integrate Goodnight’s spheres-of-argument model by investigating the ethos of the science adviser. Uncertainty types correlate with argument spheres; understanding this—and understanding the science adviser’s ethos as both forum-bound role and transgressive character performance—are crucial factors for advisers’ selection of appropriate ethical stances in public debates

Integrated Decision Gradients: Compute Your Attributions Where the Model Makes Its Decision

Attribution algorithms are frequently employed to explain the decisions of neural network models. Integrated Gradients (IG) is an influential attribution method due to its strong axiomatic foundation. The algorithm is based on integrating the gradients along a path from a reference image to the input image. Unfortunately, it can be observed that gradients computed from regions where the output logit changes minimally along the path provide poor explanations for the model decision, which is called the saturation effect problem. In this paper, we propose an attribution algorithm called integrated decision gradients (IDG). The algorithm focuses on integrating gradients from the region of the path where the model makes its decision, i.e., the portion of the path where the output logit rapidly transitions from zero to its final value. This is practically realized by scaling each gradient by the derivative of the output logit with respect to the path. The algorithm thereby provides a principled solution to the saturation problem. Additionally, we minimize the errors within the Riemann sum approximation of the path integral by utilizing non-uniform subdivisions determined by adaptive sampling. In the evaluation on ImageNet, it is demonstrated that IDG outperforms IG, left-IG, guided IG, and adversarial gradient integration both qualitatively and quantitatively using standard insertion and deletion metrics across three common models.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, submitted to NeurIPS 2023, the full code implementation of the paper results is located at: https://github.com/chasewalker26/Integrated-Decision-Gradient

A Computational and Experimental Investigation of Shear Coaxial Jet Atomization

The instability and subsequent atomization of a viscous liquid jet emanated into a high-pressure gaseous surrounding is studied both computationally and experimentally. Liquid water issued into nitrogen gas at elevated pressures is used to simulate the flow conditions in a coaxial shear injector element relevant to liquid propellant rocket engines. The theoretical analysis is based on a simplified mathematical formulation of the continuity and momentum equations in their conservative form. Numerical solutions of the governing equations subject to appropriate initial and boundary conditions are obtained via a robust finite difference scheme. The computations yield real-time evolution and subsequent breakup characteristics of the liquid jet. The experimental investigation utilizes a digital imaging technique to measure resultant drop sizes. Data were collected for liquid Reynolds number between 2,500 and 25,000, aerodynamic Weber number range of 50-500 and ambient gas pressures from 150 to 1200 psia. Comparison of the model predictions and experimental data for drop sizes at gas pressures of 150 and 300 psia reveal satisfactory agreement particularly for lower values of investigated Weber number. The present model is intended as a component of a practical tool to facilitate design and optimization of coaxial shear atomizers

Socio-economic status influences the relationship between obesity and antenatal depression: Data from a prospective cohort study

Background Obesity has been associated with increased risk of antenatal depression, but little is known about this relationship. This study tested whether socio-economic status (SES) influences the relationship between obesity and antenatal depression. Methods Data were taken from the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) cohort. BMI was calculated from measured height and weight at 15±1 weeks' gestation. Underweight women were excluded. SES was indicated by self-reported household income (dichotomised around the median: low SES ≤£45,000; high SES >£45,000). Antenatal depression was defined as scoring ≥13 on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at both 15±1 and 20±1 weeks' gestation, to identify persistently elevated symptoms of depression. Results Five thousand five hundred and twenty two women were included in these analyses and 5.5% had persistently elevated antenatal depression symptoms. There was a significant interaction between SES and BMI on the risk of antenatal depression (p=0.042). Among high SES women, obese women had approximately double the odds of antenatal depression than normal weight controls (AOR 2.11, 95%CI 1.16–3.83, p=0.014, adjusted for confounders). Among low SES women there was no association between obesity and antenatal depression. The interaction effect was robust to alternative indicators of SES in sensitivity analyses. Limitations 1) Antenatal depression was assessed with a self-reported screening measure; and 2) potential mediators such as stigma and poor body-image could not be examined. Conclusions Obesity was only associated with increased risk of antenatal depression among high SES women in this sample. Healthcare professionals should be aware that antenatal depression is more common among low SES women, regardless of BMI category

The duration of sexual relationship and its effects on adverse pregnancy outcomes

This study aims to determine if a short duration of sexual relationship is more common among women who experience adverse pregnancy outcomes including gestational hypertension (GHT), preeclampsia, small for gestational age (SGA) pregnancies and spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) with or without abnormal uterine artery Doppler compared to women who have uncomplicated pregnancies. 5591 nulliparous women from the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study were included. The risk for pregnancy complications for women who had a duration of sexual relationship of ≤3 months, 4–6 months, 7–9 months, 10–12 months was compared with women who had a duration of sexual relationship of >12 months. Uterine artery Doppler was performed at 20 ± 1 weeks’ gestation. A short duration of sexual relationship (≤3 months) was more common among women with SGA in the presence of abnormal uterine artery Doppler [9.8% vs 3.0%, aOR (95% CI) 3.4 (1.6–7.08] compared to women who had uncomplicated pregnancies. A short duration of sexual relationship (≤3 months) was also more common among women who had abnormal uterine artery Doppler compared to those with normal uterine artery Doppler [6.1% vs 3.1%, aOR (95% CI) = 2.1 (1.4–3.2)]. A short duration of sexual relationship was not associated with preeclampsia after adjusting for confounders. A short duration of sexual relationship is more common among women who deliver SGA infants with features of placental insufficiency as indicated by abnormal uterine artery Doppler.Prabha Andraweera, Claire T. Roberts, Shalem Leemaqz, Lesley McCowan, Jenny Myers, Louise C. Kenny, James Walker, Lucilla Poston, Gus Dekker on behalf of the SCOP

Exploration and confirmation of factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy in nulliparous women: prospective cohort study

Objective: To identify factors at 15 and 20 weeks’ gestation associated with a subsequent uncomplicated pregnancy. Design: Prospective international multicentre observational cohort study. Setting: Auckland, New Zealand and Adelaide, Australia (exploration and local replication dataset) and Manchester, Leeds, and London, United Kingdom, and Cork, Republic of Ireland (external confirmation dataset). Participants: 5628 healthy nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy. Main outcome measure: Uncomplicated pregnancy, defined as a normotensive pregnancy delivered at >37 weeks’ gestation, resulting in a liveborn baby not small for gestational age, and the absence of any other significant pregnancy complications. In a stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women with a complicated pregnancy. Results: Of the 5628 women, 3452 (61.3%) had an uncomplicated pregnancy. Factors that reduced the likelihood of an uncomplicated pregnancy included increased body mass index (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence intervals 0.65 to 0.84), misuse of drugs in the first trimester (0.90, 0.84 to 0.97), mean diastolic blood pressure (for each 5 mm Hg increase 0.92, 0.91 to 0.94), and mean systolic blood pressure (for each 5 mm Hg increase 0.95, 0.94 to 0.96). Beneficial factors were prepregnancy fruit intake at least three times daily (1.09, 1.01 to 1.18) and being in paid employment (per eight hours’ increase 1.02, 1.01 to 1.04). Detrimental factors not amenable to alteration were a history of hypertension while using oral contraception, socioeconomic index, family history of any hypertensive complications in pregnancy, vaginal bleeding during pregnancy, and increasing uterine artery resistance index. Smoking in pregnancy was noted to be a detrimental factor in the initial two datasets but did not remain in the final model. Conclusions: This study identified factors associated with normal pregnancy through adoption of a novel hypothesis generating approach, which has shifted the emphasis away from adverse outcomes towards uncomplicated pregnancies. Although confirmation in other cohorts is necessary, this study implies that individually targeted lifestyle interventions (normalising maternal weight, increasing prepregnancy fruit intake, reducing blood pressure, stopping misuse of drugs) may increase the likelihood of normal pregnancy outcomes.Lucy C Chappell, Paul T Seed, Jenny Myers, Rennae S Taylor, Louise C Kenny, Gustaaf A Dekker, James J Walker, Lesley M E McCowan, Robyn A North, Lucilla Posto

Outcomes at five to eight years of age for children with Hirschsprung's disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study describes core outcomes of Hirschsprung's disease (HD) in a UK-wide cohort of primary school-aged children. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study conducted from 1 October 2010 to 30 September 2012. Outcomes data were collected from parents and clinicians when children were 5-8 years of age, and combined with data collected at birth, and 28 days and 1 year post diagnosis. SETTING: All 28 UK and Irish paediatric surgical centres. PARTICIPANTS: Children with histologically proven HD diagnosed at <6 months of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: NETS1HD core outcomes. RESULTS: Data were returned for 239 (78%) of 305 children. Twelve children (5%) died prior to 5 years of age.Of the 227 surviving children, 30 (13%) had a stoma and 21 (9%) were incontinent of urine. Of the 197 children without a stoma, 155 (79%) maintained bowel movements without enemas/washouts, while 124 (63%) reported faecal incontinence. Of the 214 surviving children who had undergone a pull-through operation, 95 (44%) underwent ≥1 unplanned reoperation. 89 unplanned reoperations (27%) were major/complex.Of the 83 children with returned PedsQL scores, 37 (49%) had quality of life scores, and 31 (42%) had psychological well-being scores, that were ≥1 SD lower than the reference population mean for children without HD. CONCLUSION: This study gives a realistic picture of population outcomes of HD in primary school-aged children in the UK/Ireland. The high rates of faecal incontinence, unplanned procedures and low quality of life scores are sobering. Ensuring clinicians address the bladder, bowel and psychological problems experienced by children should be a priority