Deterring a Nuclear Iran: The Devil in the Details

Explores the technical requirements for a deterrence regime against Iran should it acquire a nuclear weapons capability. Considers red lines, treaty arrangements, force deployment and bases, military assistance to Iran's neighbors, and crisis management

Stretching the Terry Doctrine to the Search for Evidence of Crime: Canine Sniffs, State Constitutions, and the Reasonable Suspicion Standard

The Fourth Amendment, protects an individual\u27s interest in freedom from unreasonable government intrusions into personal privacy. When a court finds an investigative technique to be a search within the Amendment\u27s meaning, it effectively concludes that Fourth Amendment protection should apply. If the government activity constitutes a search, that activity must be reasonable. If the activity does not amount to a search, however, the government enjoys virtual freedom to conduct that activity as unreasonably as it pleases. For pure investigatory searches, the United States Supreme Court has found that the probable cause requirement strikes the proper balance in defining reasonableness. Unlike searches in other contexts, the Court has refused to apply any standard of suspicion lower than probable cause. This requirement imposes a substantial burden on police officers to gather significant amounts of evidence before conducting a search. As a result of the cost of meeting this high standard of suspicion, the Court has excused certain police activities that intrude minimally on personal property, such as canine sniffs, from the rigors of the Amendment by concluding that these intrusions are not searches.\u27 Canine sniffs pose an interesting Fourth Amendment problem because they can reveal the presence of concealed narcotics that other- wise might remain hidden from detection. The sniff constitutes a search because it discloses the contents of an item in which the suspect possesses a reasonable expectation of privacy.\u27 The use of a dog\u27s nose, however, poses less of an intrusion into personal privacy than general rummaging or prying into a physical area because the sniff does not reveal private information about its subject beyond what the dog can detect. Because of the effectiveness and limited scope of intrusiveness, canine sniffs are a valuable tool in the fight against drug trafficking. At the same time, the sniffs limited scope of intrusiveness substantially protects citizens\u27 interests in privacy. By applying a traditional probable cause requirement to sniffs, a court would defeat these attractive features of the canine sniffs because police armed with probable cause could, and presumably would, conduct more indiscriminate searches. With few exceptions, federal courts, which are wed to a strict probable cause requirement for pure investigatory searches, have concluded that canine sniffs do not constitute searches within the meaning of the Fourth Amendment

The influence of Arab culture on Arab military effectiveness

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 1996.Includes bibliographical references (v. 2, p. 765-792).by Kenneth M. Pollack.Ph.D

Evaluation of Kentucky\u27s Graduated Driver Licensing System

Kentucky\u27s current GDL program, which applies to drivers up to age 18, was enacted in 1996. The program includes a six-month instruction permit for drivers under age 18 (minimum age 16), a restriction on driving between midnight and 6am and a requirement for adult-supervised driving for permit drivers. In addition, there is a six-point limit on traffic violations with a penalty of license suspension for drivers under age 18, a requirement for a four-hour driving safety education class (or driver education course) and a 0.02 ml/dl limit on blood alcohol concentration (continues up to age 21 ). Objectives: The objectives of this program evaluation were: (a) to examine teen driver motor vehicle crashes, crash-related injuries, and crash-related costs before and after the implementation of the GDL program; (b) to examine the implementation of the program at the local level ; and (c) to recommend actions to enhance the program\u27s effectiveness in addressing the teen crash problem. Methods: Crash and licensing data before ( 1993-1995) and after GDL ( 1997-2000) were analyzed. Data on miles driven were obtained from driving logs of over I ,000 high school students. Estimation of the cost of crashes was derived from analysis of crash data using the Crash Cost computer software program. Information on local implementation of GDL was obtained through interviews and through a questionnaire survey of 700 law enforcement officers and over 40 district judges. Results: Results indicate a 31 percent reduction in crashes for 16 year-old drivers after the GDL program, and a similar reduction in fatal crashes (31 percent) and injury crashes (33 percent), crashes between midnight and 6am (36 percent), and alcohol-related crashes (32 percent). Cost analysis indicates an estimated reduction of $36 million per year in 16 year-old teen driver crash-related expenses. Results indicate that this is due to the 83% reduction in the number of 16 to 16 1/2 year-old drivers involved in crashes. However, the number of crashes has not been reduced for drivers over age 16 1/2, i.e. drivers who may be past the permit level. In addition, the six-point limit on traffic violations and the non-cumulative penalties on 0.02 blood alcohol limit violations have not reduced the number of traffic violations or alcohol-related crashes for teen drivers over age 16 1/2. Recommendations: The six-month permit level has been successful in substantially reducing crash-related injuries and fatalities and should be retained. Additional measures, such as upgrading to an expanded GDL program, are needed to reduce crash-related injuries and fatalities for 16 1/2 to 18 year-old drivers. Specific recommendation are made to increase parental awareness and enforcement of program provisions

Satisfaction With Psychology Training In the Veterans Healthcare Administration

Given that VA is the largest trainer of psychologists in the United States, this study sought to understand satisfaction with VA psychology training and which elements of training best predict trainees\u27 positive perceptions of training (e.g., willingness to choose training experience again, stated intentions to work in VA). Psychology trainees completed the Learners\u27 Perceptions Survey (LPS) from 2005 to 2017 (N = 5,342). Satisfaction was uniformly high. Trainee satisfaction was significantly associated with level of training, facility complexity, and some patient-mix factors. Learning environment (autonomy, time with patients, etc.), clinical faculty/preceptors (teaching ability, accessibility, etc.), and personal experiences (work/life balance, personal responsibility for patient care, etc.) were the biggest drivers of stated willingness to repeat training experiences in VA and seek employment there. Results have implications for psychologists involved in the provision of a training experience valued by trainees

The (Surprising) Efficacy of Academic and Behavioral Intervention with Disadvantaged Youth : Results from a Randomized Experiment in Chicago

There is growing concern that improving the academic skills of disadvantaged youth is too difficult and costly, so policymakers should instead focus either on vocationally oriented instruction for teens or else on early childhood education. Yet this conclusion may be premature given that so few previous interventions have targeted a potential fundamental barrier to school success: "mismatch" between what schools deliver and the needs of disadvantaged youth who have fallen behind in their academic or non-academic development. This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial of a two-pronged intervention that provides disadvantaged youth with non-academic supports that try to teach youth social-cognitive skills based on the principles of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), and intensive individualized academic remediation. The study sample consists of 106 male 9th and 10th graders in a public high school on the south side of Chicago, of whom 95% are black and 99% are free or reduced price lunch eligible. Participation increased math test scores by 0.65 of a control group standard deviation (SD) and 0.48 SD in the national distribution, increased math grades by 0.67 SD, and seems to have increased expected graduation rates by 14 percentage points (46%). While some questions remain about the intervention, given these effects and a cost per participant of around $4,400 (with a range of$3,000 to $6,000), this intervention seems to yield larger gains in adolescent outcomes per dollar spent than many other intervention strategies

Anarchy's anatomy : two-tiered security systems and Libya’s civil wars

No issue deserves more scrutiny than the mechanisms whereby popular unrest unleashes civil wars. We argue that one institution — two-tiered security systems — is particularly pernicious in terms of the accompanying civil war risk. These systems’ defining characteristic is the juxtaposition of small communally stacked units that protect regimes from internal adversaries with larger regular armed forces that deter external opponents. These systems aggravate civil war risks because stacked security units lack the size to repress widespread dissent, but inhibit rapid regime change through coup d’état. Regular militaries, meanwhile, fracture when ordered to employ force against populations from which they were recruited.PostprintPeer reviewe