Back from the Depths: Brazil, the World and the EU after Lula's Electoral Victory

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known broadly as "Lula") has defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential election. As the Global South giant emerges from the isolation and loss of influence imposed by Bolsonaro's right-wing anti-globalist agenda, how can Germany and Europe best engage it with a view to resuming a key strategic partnership? Brazil's relations with the EU and Germany are at a historical postwar low. Normative differences with a Bolsonaro government driven by extreme right-wing domestic constituencies have stalled trade and climate negotiations, led to clashes on human rights and deforestation, and caused what were once regular high-level contacts to ebb to a trickle. The election itself was decided by a razor-thin margin and marred by voter suppression, contestations of its legitimacy, and pervasive electoral violations by Bolsonaro. The incumbent has not formally conceded, and his supporters were still in the streets a week after the vote. Assistance in asserting the functioning of the country's democratic institutions is urgently needed. Lula will realign the country with its multilateral diplomatic traditions and seek to reinstate social policies cancelled by Bolsonaro, such as poverty reduction, human rights, and safeguards for minorities, as well as environmental protection and sustainable development. This will align Brazil increasingly with Europe. But today's scenario is different from Lula's first two terms in office between 2003 and 2011: the National Congress is hostile to Lula's agenda, there is no commodity boom, and a polarised and unequal international system has less room for the rise of an emerging power. Germany and Europe should actively and regularly engage Brazil and assist in its moves to consolidate its democracy, combat inequality, protect the rainforest and safeguard minority rights. To do so, it should use trade policy as an incentive, reinforce civilian control over the armed forces, engage subnational partners, and assist in combatting fake news

Emerging Powers and the Notion of International Responsibility: moral duty or shifting goalpost?

The rise of new powers and attendant shifts in the global balance of power have led to calls for UN Security Council reform. Established powers have often responded by linking increased influence in the international system with the assumption of more international responsibility by aspirant powers. Based on ethical and philosophical approaches from the individual and state levels, and a case study of Brazil, this article analyses the way in which the notion of responsibility is discursively constructed, demonstrating the manner in which it has been used as an ever-shifting goalpost to deny emerging powers participation at the highest levels of global strategic decision-making. Most often, this is done by equating "responsibility" with the ability and willingness to use robust military force

Die Talfahrt einer aufstrebenden Macht: Brasiliens Krise und globale Präsenz

Das einstige Wunderland Brasilien steckt in einer tiefen Krise. Die konservative Übergangsregierung möchte sich so weit wie möglich von ihren Vorgängern Lula und Rousseff distanzieren. Trotz gerechter Kritik gilt es hier, angesichts neuer Herausforderungen nicht das Kind mit dem Bade auszuschütten und die zentralen Errungenschaften zunichte zu machen, die das Land zu einer der wichtigsten aufstrebenden Mächte gemacht hatten. Brasiliens Aufstieg zur Gestaltungsmacht stellte das Land vor das Dilemma, seine traditionellen diplomatischen Werte mit den Erwartungen an einen Global Player in Einklang zu bringen. Hieraus entstand ein außenpolitisches Projekt, welches das Land zu einer der wichtigsten globalen Gestaltungsmächte machte. Brasiliens Aufstieg basierte sowohl auf seinem damaligen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung als auch auf den erstmals explizit in die Außenpolitik eingebrachten fortschrittlichen Prinzipien der Lula- und Rousseff-Regierungen. Hierzu gehörte die Anwendung von "soft power", die Kritik am Westen und ein Führungsanspruch im globalen Süden. Obwohl die Kritik an Rousseffs Regierung in Teilen gerechtfertigt ist, geht die Übergangsregierung in ihrer Absicht, den Einfluss der Arbeiterpartei so schnell wie möglich zurückzufahren, das Risiko ein, wichtige außenpolitische Errungenschaften aufs Spiel zu setzen. Priorität hat unter der neuen Regierung die Wiederherstellung der wirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit durch Liberalisierung, Kürzung sozialer Programme und eine engere Bindung an den Westen. Die Entwicklung eines außenpolitischen Projekts, das dem der Vorgänger gleicht, steht aus. Fazit: Da Brasiliens Aufstieg als Gestaltungsmacht seine Grundlage bisher in der Anwendung von fortschrittlicher "soft power" hatte, braucht es nun ein neues Fundament für den Erhalt des globalen Status des Landes. Der Übergangsregierung dürfte es schwerfallen, diese Rolle auszufüllen. Die Prioritäten der neuen Machthaber - wirtschaftliche Stabilität und Integration globaler Märkte - sind, sofern sie nicht sozialen Fortschritt bedrohen, auch notwendige langfristige Ziele des Landes

SEGURANÇA REGIONAL, COMUNIDADES EPISTÊMICAS E COOPERAÇÃO NO ATLÂNTICO SUL: O CASO DAS ILHAS FALKLAND/MALVINAS EM PERSPECTIVA COMPARADA

O presente artigo busca contribuir com a literatura analítica de segurança internacional a partir de um viés construtivista, por meio da operacionalização do conceito de comunidades epistêmicas. O trabalho propõe-se a explorar o nexo entre tais comunidades - tendo em vista sua potencial influência na criação de expectativas de conduta e mudanças pacíficas nas relações entre Estados - e as abordagens de segurança regional. Após analisar os marcos teóricos em questão, o artigo empenha-se em apresentar brevemente o estudo de caso da Índia e do Paquistão, cujas hostilidades foram atenuadas a partir da atuação da comunidade epistêmica, voltada a solucionar desastres naturais provocados pelas cheias do Rio Indo. Finalmente, o artigo dedica-se a realizar uma análise aprofundada do caso das Falklands / Malvinas, demonstrando o papel de epistêmica e cooperação técnica na criação de uma comunidade de segurança no Atlântico Sul

Taxation and market power

"We analyze the incidence and welfare effects of unit sales taxes in experimental monopoly and Bertrand markets. We find, in line with economic theory, that firms with no market power are able to shift a high share of a tax burden on to consumers, independent of whether buyers are automated or human players. In monopoly markets, a monopolist bears a large share of the burden of a tax increase. With human buyers, however, this share is smaller than with automated buyers as the presence of human buyers constrains the pricing behavior of a monopolist." (author's abstract)"Dieser Artikel untersucht Inzidenz- und Wohlfahrtseffekte einer Mengensteuer in experimentellen Monopol- und Bertrand-Märkten. Im Einklang mit der ökonomischen Theorie sind Firmen ohne Marktmacht in der Lage, einen großen Anteil der Last einer Steuererhöhung an die Konsumenten weiterzugeben. Dies gilt unabhängig davon, ob die Käufer simuliert sind oder die Kaufentscheidungen durch reale Käufer getroffen werden. In Monopolmärkten trägt der Monopolist einen großen Anteil der Last einer Steuererhöhung. Werden die Kaufentscheidungen durch reale Käufer getroffen, ist dieser Anteil jedoch kleiner als mit simulierten Käufern, da reale Käufer im Experiment das Preissetzungsverhalten des Monopolisten einschränken." (Autorenreferat

Five generations of peace operations: from the "thin blue line" to "painting a country blue"

This article combines both international practice and analytical contributions into a systematic and synthetic presentation of the evolution of peace operations from their modern inception in 1948 to the present. It seeks to serve a didactic purpose in proposing a basic structure for Brazilian scholars' burgeoning debate on peace operations and intervention, rather than a definitive characterization of blue helmet practice. Peace operations' progression is traced through five analytical "generations," each adding a crucial factor distinguishing it from its predecessors. Each generation is placed in relation to changes in the nature of conflict and in the interpretation of the foundational principles of peace operations, and links to broader theoretical issues in International Relations are made explicit at each stage