Ethnic Party Bans and Civil Unrest: a Measurement Modeling Approach to Predicting Effects of Constitutional Engineering

Political representation through exclusively ethnic parties has long been thought to create, or enforce, social cleavages leading to conflict. To gain support and mobilize ethnic constituents, ethnic party leadership has incentive to exaggerate differences between, or even antagonize, members of other ethnic groups through the process of ethnic outbidding. Classic political theory cautions that the exclusive nature of ethnic parties can also produce a dangerous zero sum game between ethnic groups that cannot be solved by compromise via democratic institutions. Several institutional solutions have been proposed to counter the problem of instability ethnic divisions create for new democracies, encountering varying levels of success. Constitutional ethnic party bans are designed with the intention of coercing ethnic groups to form inclusive, multiethnic political parties. Party membership, then, takes on a national, rather than communal, character, which is thought to prevent extremism and encourage moderate political parties. Opponents of this method of party regulation argue that prohibiting ethnic groups from forming parties obstructs advancement of interests exclusive to the ethnic group and that this practice is especially repressive for ethnic minorities. The theory I present in this dissertation makes the case that ethnic party bans, in the form of constitutional party regulations with spatial distribution requirements, instead prevent majority ethnic groups from resorting to extremism by restricting parties to compete in elections only when the party has diverse membership. To garner support across ethnic cleavages, through a kind of party-level federalism, party leaders are compelled to moderate political platforms in order to form winning coalitions. I argue that this institutional arrangement is not only effective at reducing conflict, but that the design is more stabilizing than power-sharing or proportional representation. To date, there is no consensus on whether the risk of unrest is heightened by ethnic party competition or subsequently dampened by the banning of ethnic party participation in politics. Recent empirical inquiries into the relationship between ethnic parties, or banned ethnic party activity, and conflict have returned contradictory results. Some of the discrepancy in findings can be attributed to differing approaches to research design. In particular, in Ishiyama\u27s 2011 study his mixed findings indicate that in certain statistical models ethnic parties are more prone to conflict whereas utilizing alternative modeling strategies, there is no apparent relationship. I argue that the problem requires a deeper inquiry into measurement attributes of the data which can offer insight into the selection of appropriate modeling techniques. My research deals with this measurement problem by utilizing alternating least squares optimal scaling (ALSOS) regression to effectively transform the ordinal dependent variable to its least biased linear form. As an added attempt to reduce endogeneity, I employ causal inference techniques to stratify a sample of most similar cases between ethnic groups with parties, without parties, and those who have been banned from party operation. This scaling solution will both improve this particular model of ethnic conflict and demonstrate the value of ALSOS regression in myriad social science applications. The analysis follows with discussion of several cases of constitutional ethnic party bans, examining the specific features of the institution that prove most useful. I find that constitutional ethnic party bans are an effective tool in the prevention of ethnic outbidding. Ethnic groups banned from forming exclusively ethnic parties engage in lower levels of unrest as compared to groups with ethnic parties. I also show that bans with spatial distribution requirements work well to facilitate minority ethnic group representation within multiethnic parties and that bans are less effective in countries with already well-established ethnic parties

Predicting academic achievement in deaf poulations using measures of learning and memory

The purpose of this study was to (1) examine the correlation between a test of academic achievement (SAT-9) and a test of cognitive ability (WISC-III PIQ), and between a test of academic achievement (SAT-9) and tests of memory and learning (TOMAL VSR and WSR subtests), and (2) to examine the degree to which each type of test (either WISC-III PIQ, TOMAL WSR, or TOMAL VSR) is predictive of achievement in several achievement areas for deaf and hard of hearing children. The TOMAL WSR and VSR subtests were administered to 30 children enrolled at a school for the deaf in Buffalo, NY. Data on WISC-ITI PIQ and SAT-9 scores were obtained from school records. Test instructions were given through Total Communication, using a combination of American Sign Language and spoken English. Significant correlations were found between the WISC-III PIQ and each SAT-9 subtest as well as between both subtests of the TOMAL and each SAT-9 subtest. Only the VSR subtest of the TOMAL was found to significantly predict achievement on the Reading Comprehension, Total Language, and Problem Solving subtests of the SAT-9. The study provides support for the use of tests of visual memory in the psychological assessment of deaf children

Recovery of Black Carbon Concentrations in Burned Forests

Forest fires shed light absorbing particles (LAP), such as black carbon and burned woody debris, into snowpacks, darkening snow surface albedo, and advancing snowmelt timing and snow disappearance patterns for decades following fire. Although the role of LAPs in seasonal snow has been extensively studied in recent years, the spatiotemporal variability of LAPs and contributions to snowmelt relative to years since fire and burn severity is still unknown. In the Triple Divide region of western Wyoming, the headwaters of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri rivers, we quantified the spatiotemporal variability of forest fire effects on snow albedo, using geochemical analysis and radiative transfer modeling of black carbon and burned woody debris concentrations in snowpacks from a chronosequence of eight burned forests. We found that the postfire radiative forcing on snow due to black carbon and burned woody debris concentrations was greatest immediately following fire and in high severity burned forests, but snow albedo in burned forests recovered over decades following fire to resemble snow albedo in open meadows. Geochemical analysis and radiative transfer modeling enhances our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of the key mechanisms driving forest fire effects on snowmelt

Forest Fire Effects on Landscape Snow Albedo Recovery and Decay

Surface snow albedo (SSA) darkens immediately following a forest fire, while landscape snow albedo (LSA) brightens as more of the snow-covered surface becomes visible under the charred canopy. The duration and variability of the post-fire snow albedo recovery process remain unknown beyond a few years following the fire. We evaluated the temporal variability of post-fire snow albedo recovery relative to burn severity across a chronosequence of eight burned forests burned from 2000 to 2019, using pre- and post-fire daily, seasonal, and annual landscape snow albedo data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MOD10A1). Post-fire annual LSA increased by 21% the first year following the fire and increased continually by 33% on average across all eight forest fires and burn severity classifications over the period of record (18 years following a fire). Post-fire LSA measurements increased by 63% and 53% in high and moderate burn severity areas over ten years following fire. While minimum and maximum snow albedo values increased relative to annual post-fire LSA recovery, daily snow albedo decay following fresh snowfall accelerated following forest fire during the snowmelt period. Snow albedo recovery over 10 years following fire did not resemble the antecedent pre-fire unburned forest but more resembled open meadows. The degradation of forest canopy structure is the key driver underlying the paradox of the post-fire snow albedo change (SSA vs. LSA)

Forest Fire Effects on Radiative and Turbulent Fluxes over Snow : Implications for Snow Hydrology

As a result of a warming climate, subsequent declining snowpack, and a century of fire suppression, forest fires are increasing across the western United States. However, we still do not fully understand how forest fire effects snowpack energy balance, nor the volume and availability of snow melt and associated water resources. This dissertation investigated the radiative and turbulent energy fluxes over snow in a burned and unburned forest site using a suite of experimental, modeling, and remote sensing methods to determine the overall impact of forest fire disturbance to snowpack energy balance and snow hydrology. For three years following the Shadow Lake Fire, which occurred in September 2011 at the crest of the Oregon Cascades, a suite of field experiments were maintained, including snow water equivalent and snow spectral albedo measurement transects, snow surface sampling, snow depth and basic micro-meteorological monitoring and eddy covariance measurements of turbulent heat fluxes. These data were used to empirically characterize forest fire effects to the radiative and turbulent fluxes over snow, to parameterize key drivers of snowpack energy balance and to model forest fire effects to snow hydrology using a physically-based spatially distributed snowpack energy and mass balance model for both the burned and unburned forest sites. This resulted in three papers summarizing forest fire effects to snowpack energy balance and implications for snow hydrology. This dissertation documented forest fire effects to the radiative and turbulent fluxes over snow and evaluated implications for snow hydrology. These results showed a 40% reduction in snow albedo in the burned forest during the ablation period in the first year following fire, while 60% more solar radiation reached the snow surface, driving a 200% increase in net shortwave radiation. This dissertation documented that both sensible and latent heat fluxes were double the magnitude and variability in the burned forest compared to the nearby unburned forest. These results showed that the turbulent fluxes over snow can be periodically large and substantial over time. The contribution of sensible heat flux and loss of energy by the latent heat flux is responsible for a loss of snow mass of approximately 2% that measured snowmelt in the burned forest site during the clear-sky snowmelt period. Overall, the radiative fluxes dominate the overall snowpack energy balance in burned and unburned forests. An empirically-based parameterization was developed to represent the temporal and spatial variability of snow albedo relative to days-since-snowfall in the burned and unburned forests, which was employed in a physically based spatially distributed snowpack energy and mass balance model. Using this variable snow albedo parameterization improved model performance in both burned and unburned forest sites, and better captured the temporal and spatial variability of snow albedo and snow water equivalent than a fixed albedo parameterization. Overall this evaluation demonstrated that even though more snow may accumulate in burned areas than unburned forests, the combined effect of the increased postfire radiative forcing to snow and increased turbulent fluxes over snow accelerates snow melt, shortens the duration of snow cover, and advances the date of snow disappearance across the extent of the burned forest. Although this research focused on a relatively small burned area in the western Oregon Cascades, it has broad applications from regional to global scales particularly in forested maritime snow-dominated watersheds. Eighty percent of forest fires in the western United States occur in the seasonal snow zone, and those fires are 4.4 times larger than outside the seasonal snow zone. As forest fires increase and snowpacks decrease across forested montane headwater regions of the western US and beyond, it is critical that we incorporate forest fire disturbance effects to snow hydrology in our hydrologic modeling applications and our natural resource management decisions

Disseminating the best available evidence: New challenges in public reporting of health care

As a direct benefit of the Health Care Reform Act (2010), concerted effort has been deployed to define and characterize the process by which the best available evidence for diagnosis or treatment intervention prognosis can be obtained. The science of research synthesis in health care has established the systematic research protocol by which randomized clinical trials and other clinical studies must be reviewed and compared for the level and quality of the evidence presented, as well as the consensus of the best available evidence synthesized and shared. This process of systematic review yields a reliable and valid approach in comparing different interventions and strategies to prevent, diagnose, treat and monitor health conditions in terms of efficacy, and or of effectiveness. The resulting bioinformation outcome of comparative effectiveness and efficacy research review of the available clinical data is expressed as a consensus of the best available evidence, which finds its way in evidence-based clinical practice guidelines, standards of care and eventually, in policies: hence, the acronym CEERAP (comparative effectiveness and efficacy review and policy). The methodological and the procedural criteria that determine and regulate the public reporting dissemination of this sort of bioinformation, and the extent of benefit to the patient's health literacy, which have remained a bit more elusive to this date, are investigated and discussed in this paper

Charred forests increase snowmelt: Effects of burned woody debris and incoming solar radiation on snow ablation

We document effects of postfire forest conditions on snow accumulation, albedo, and ablation in the Oregon Cascades. We measured snow water equivalent, solar radiation, snow albedo, and snowpack surface debris at a pair of burned and unburned forest plots. Snow accumulation was greater in the burned forest; however, the snowpack disappeared 23days earlier and had twice the ablation rate than in the unburned forest. Snow albedo was 40% lower in the burned forest during ablation, while approximately 60% more solar radiation reached the snow surface, driving a 200% increase in net shortwave radiation. Significant amounts of pyrogenic carbon particles and larger burned woody debris shed from standing charred trees accumulated on the snowpack and darkened its surface. Spatial analysis showed that across the Western U.S., 80% of all forest fires occurred in the seasonal snow zone, and were 4.4 times larger than fires outside the seasonal snow zone.Keywords: Western United States, Cover, Decliniing mountain snowpack, Wildlife, Ecosystems, Model, North America, Melt, Albedo, Climate chang

Quantitative Genetic Mapping and Genome Assembly in the Lesser Wax Moth Achroia grisella

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Specific characteristics of the male Achroia grisella acoustic mating signal determine a male’s attractiveness toward females. These features are genetically variable in populations, and mapping experiments have been used to identify loci contributing to song variation, and understand the evolutionary forces acting on this important sexual trait. Here we built on this foundation and carried out QTL (Quantitative Trait Locus) mapping using >1,000 recombinant individuals, genotyping this large cohort at thousands of sequence-based markers covering the entire collection of 30 A. grisella chromosomes. This dense marker set, coupled with our development of an annotated, draft genome of A. grisella, allowed us to link >3,000 genome scaffolds, >10,000 predicted genes, and close to 275Mb of genome sequence to chromosomes. Our QTL mapping confirmed a fraction of the QTL identified in a previous study, and additionally revealed novel loci. Collectively, QTL explained only small fractions of the phenotypic variance, suggesting many more causative factors remain below the detection threshold of our study. A surprising, and ultimately challenging feature of our study was the low level of intrachromosomal recombination present in our mapping population. This led to difficulty ordering markers along linkage groups, necessitating a chromosome-by-chromosome mapping approach, rather than true interval mapping, and precluded confident ordering/orienting of scaffolds along each chromosome. Nonetheless, our study increased the genomic resources available for the A. grisella system. Enabled by ever more powerful technologies, future investigators will be able to leverage our data to provide more detailed genetic dissection of male song variation in A. grisella.NSF IOB-0516634NIGMS award P20GM103638NIGMS award P20GM103418NIH R01 GM085260NIH R01 OD01097

The importance of identifying and protecting coastal wildness

Conservation of coastal biodiversity and associated ecosystem services requires protection and management for attributes of coastal wildness, which we define to include physical and ecological intactness and connectivity, native species and habitat diversity, and limited human disturbance. Coastal wildness is threatened by high demand for access to and development of coastal margins; sea level rise exacerbates this threat. As a case study, California (USA), a biodiversity hotspot, has a network of marine and terrestrial protected areas along the coast and strong coastal policy. While 35% of California’s coast has wildness attributes, only 9% of California’s coast is characterized as wild and also protected on both land and in the adjacent waters. A multi-tiered approach is needed to incorporate wild coast attributes into conservation planning and protection of coastal areas. A coastal wildness designation is needed, as well as policies that manage for wildness attributes in existing protected areas