Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices

This paper applies new time-series procedures to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular deterioration in relative primary commodity prices and the nature of their persistence. Employing a dataset of 24 relative commodity prices for the 1900-98 period, the pervasiveness of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis is shown to be a function of a priori selected decision criteria, providing an explanation of conflicting findings in the recent literature. Moreover, much less persistence is found in the relative commodity prices than previously reported, since 23 out of the 24 commodities can be classified as trend-stationary. This implies there may well be more room for stabilization and price support mechanisms than previously advocated.primary commodities, unit root tests, structural breaks

Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of dividend ratios to predict the UK equity premium. Specifically, we apply the Goyal and Welch (2003) methodology to equity premia derived from the UK FTSE All-Share index. This approach provides a powerful graphical diagnostic for predictive ability. Preliminary in-sample univariate regressions reveal that the UK equity premium contains an element of predictability. Moreover, out-of-sample the considered models outperform the historical moving average. In contrast to similar work on the US, the graphical diagnostic then indicates that dividend ratios are useful predictors of excess returns. Finally, Campbell and Shiller (1988) identities are employed to account for the time-varying properties of the dividend yield and dividend growth processes. It is shown that by instrumenting the models with the identities, forecasting ability can be improved.

The organisational contexts in which research with impact is produced: lessons from REF2014

What are the organisational contexts in which ‘impactful’ research is produced? Following an empirical analysis of a selection of REF2014 impact case studies, Neil Kellard and Martyna Śliwa discuss the links between impact scores and a variety of important contextual factors. In what might be seen as a challenge to the established hierarchy of HEIs, high scores for research publication quality did not necessarily correspond with high scores for impact case studies. However, the under-representation of both early-career and women researchers is a concern future evaluation exercises should seek to address

Hedge Funds and Herding Behaviour

This chapter examines whether hedge funds herd, how this herding occurs, and any potential market wide effects. Bringing together the mainstream finance literature and that from a more management and sociological perspective, it is shown that hedge funds herd, although there is some evidence this is less than other large institutional investors. Mechanistically, such consensus trades occur because hedge firms communicate within tight knit clusters of trusted and smart managers, who share and analyze trading positions together. This industry structure is a function of the hyper decision-making environment faced by hedge fund managers, coupled with a desire for legitimization and to maintain reputation. Finally, note that hedge fund herding can have market wide effects either directly via network risk and indirectly, as follower institutional investors amplify hedge fund trading patterns

Measuring Oil Price Shocks

The role of oil price shocks in US economic activity and inflation is controversial but a key input to current economic policy. To clarify these relations, we employ a more refined measure of oil shocks based on decomposing highly accurate realized volatility estimated using intraday oil futures data. In reconciling prior results, we find that shocks driven by price increases (decreases) are associated with rising (falling) inflation while only a symmetric volatility channel affects economic activity

Oil price uncertainty as a predictor of stock market volatility

In this paper we empirically examine the impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on US stock market volatility. We define the oil price uncertainty shock as the unanticipated component of oil price fluctuations. We find that our oil price uncertainty factor is the most significant predictor of stock market volatility when compared with various observable oil price and volatility measures commonly used in the literature. Moreover, we find that oil price uncertainty is a common volatility forecasting factor of S&P500 constituents, and it outperforms lagged stock market volatility and the VIX when forecasting volatility for medium and long-term forecasting horizons. Interestingly, when forecasting the volatility of S&P500 constituents, we find that the highest predictive power of oil price uncertainty is for the stocks which belong to the financial sector. Overall, our findings show that financial stability is significantly damaged when the degree of oil price unpredictability rises, while it is relatively immune to observable fluctuations in the oil market

Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and U.S. precious metal futures markets

Given a dominant exchange, how should other exchanges set their trading hours? We examine the introduction of a night session by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, allowing trading concurrently with daytime trading at the Commodity Exchange in the U.S. After developing hypotheses, results for gold and silver show: trading activity has increased; liquidity in Shanghai has risen and prices are less volatile at market opening; the price discovery share of Chinese gold futures has fallen but this is not a sign of weakening market quality; and volatility spillovers increase bi-directionally. Longer trading hours have decreased market segmentation and increased information flow

Is news related to GDP growth a risk factor for commodity futures returns?

Expectations about future economic activity should theoretically affect the demand for inventory holdings and therefore commodity spot and futures prices. Consistent with these predictions, we find that news related to future GDP growth is a significant factor that is priced in the cross-section of commodity futures sorted by percentage net basis. The latter is highly correlated with inventories. In particular, it establishes that commodity futures with high inventory levels provide a hedge against risk associated with future GDP growth so that investors are willing to accept lower return. By contrast, those commodity futures with low inventory levels are inversely related to the GDP-related factor so that investors require a higher return. Such results suggest that commodity futures excess returns are a compensation for risk

Credit Default Swap Spreads: Funding Liquidity Matters!

This paper explores the relationship between funding liquidity and credit default swap (CDS) spreads, evidencing the effects of the regulatory changes brought about by the introduction of the CDS Small Bang reforms for CDS contracts on European reference entities in June 2009. Using panel estimations, this study provides evidence that a tightening of funding liquidity increases CDS spreads, an effect which is three times larger in magnitude for high-CDS entities compared to low-CDS firms. This relationship increases in magnitude and significance after the implementation of the CDS Small Bang reforms which introduced fixed coupons for trading CDSs, leading to the exchange of upfront fees between CDS contract parties