The permanent income hypothesis, business cycles, and regime shifts: Evidence from eight countries

We provide international evidence on the joint behavior of consumption and the real rate of interest and examine the rational expectations restrictions of the permanent income hypothesis. We extend the basic model to allow for independent effects of the stage of the business cycle or a regime shift after 1979. In our eight-country sample (using 1970s-1980s data) we find a small but internationally similar rate of intertemporal substitution once we allow for a regime shift affecting the average growth of consumption after 1979. The rational expectations restrictions are formally rejected, most prominently for the United Kingdom and Japan

Do Global Risk Factors Matter for International Cost of Capital Computations?

International financial markets are becoming integrated. Hence, global risk factor are increasingly important for portfolio selection and asset pricing. The recent empirical finance literature has confirmed that both the global market portfolio and exchange rate risk factors constitute important determinants of asset returns. We show, however, that global risk factors do not importantly affect estimates of the cost of equity capital for a remarkably wide variety of companies. We analyze almost 3,300 stocks from nine industrialized countries over the period 1980-1999. Incorporating global factors into cost of capit

The Cost of Capital of Cross-Listed Firms

This paper analyzes the cost of capital of firms with foreign equity listings. Our purpose is to shed light on the question whether international and domestic asset pricing models yield a different estimate of the cost of capital for cross-listed stocks. We distinguish between (i) the multifactor ICAPM of Solnik (1983) and Sercu (1980) including both the global market portfolio and exchange rate risk premia, and (ii) the single factor domestic CAPM. We test for the significance of the cost of capital differential in a sample of 336 cross-listed stocks from nine countries in the period 1980-1999. Our hypothesis is that the cost of capital differential is

De geloofwaardigheid van het EMS

M et behulp van recent ontwikkelde wisselkoersmodellen is het mogelijk hetgedrag van wisselkoersen in een wisselkoersstelsel als het EMS te bestuderen. Aan de hand van geschatte devaluatiekansen laten de auteurs zien dat het EMS tot 1987 voor veel munten ongeloofwaardig was. Na 1987 nam de geloofwaardigheid substantieel toe, totdat de recente valutacrises het stelsel omverwierpen. Er zijn tot nog toe weinig aanwijzingen dat de nieuwe opzet van het EMS met fluctuatiemarges van 15% niet houdbaar is. Ook het vasthouden van de gulden aan de 2,25% bandbreedte ten opzichte van de Duitse mark lijkt atteszins gerechtvaardigd

Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: the view from the tails

In the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime. The analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution models. The paper investigates the issue by means of extremal analysis which allows for a unified treatment. In particular, we try to sort out whether apparent distributional differences are due to differences in techniques or in regimes

Portfolio Implications of Systemic Crises

Systemic crises can have grave consequences for investors in international equity markets, because it causes the risk-return trade-off to deteriorate severely for a longer period. In this paper we propose a novel approach to include the possibility of systemic crises in asset allocation decisions. By combining regime switching models with Merton (1969)-style portfolio construction, our approach captures persistence of crises much better than existing models. Our analysis shows that incorporating systemic crises has a large impact on asset allocation decisions, while the costs of ignoring such crises are substantial. For an expected utility maximizing US investor, who can invest globally these costs range from 1.13% per year of his initial wealth when he has no prior information on the likelihood of a crisis, to over 3% per month if a crisis occurs with almost certainty. If a crisis is taken into account, the investor allocates less to risky assets, and particularly less to emerging markets, being most prone to a crisis. An investor facing short selling constraints withdraws completely from equity markets if the likelihood of a crisis increases

The effects of systemic crises when investors can be crisis ignorant

Systemic crises can largely affect asset allocations due to the rapid deterioration of the risk-return trade-off. We investigate the effects of systemic crises, interpreted as global simultaneous shocks to financial markets, by introducing an investor adopting a crisis ignorant or crisis conscious strategy. Including the possibility of a systemic crisis is a substantial improvement. Investments in risky assets fall, while allocations to countries less sensitive to a crisis grow relatively. An increasing probability of a crisis exacerbates these effects. The certainty equivalent costs of ignoring systemic crises are large, ranging from 0.65% per year unconditionally, to over 5% per month conditionally on a high probability for the occurrence of a crisis

Financial Integration Through Benchmarks: The European Banking Sector

European banking regulation has been harmonized to a high degree over the last few decades. Nevertheless, the European banking industry remains fragmented as shown by the relatively high market shares of banks in their home countries. In this paper we concentrate on the integration process of European bank share prices. We develop a parsimonious model that is able to detect different integration (correlation) regimes. The model is applied to a set of 41 European banks that have a continuous share price listing over the period January 1990 – March 2003. Our main finding is that the correlation between larger banks in Europe has increased substantially over this period, whereas the correlation between smaller banks has become lower. A reason for this result could be that investors perceive that the activities of bigger banks get more integrated. Another reason may be that as a result of institutional and other larger investors turning their investment strategies towards a European sector-based approach, investors are tracking indices of the European banking sector. These indices are typically constructed from the stock prices of the larger banks. This would create an incentive for large banks to become more integrated with other large banks

Selecting Copulas for Risk Management

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend standard goodness-of-fit tests to copulas. Contrary to existing, indirect tests, these tests can be applied to any copula of any dimension and are based on a direct comparison of a given copula with observed data. For a portfolio consisting of stocks, bonds and real estate, these tests provide clear evidence in favor of the \\studt copula, and reject both the correlation-based Gaussian copula and the extreme value-based Gumbel copula. In comparison with the \\studt copula, we find that the Gaussian copula underestimates the probability of joint extreme downward movements, while the Gumbel copula overestimates this risk. Similarly we establish that the Gaussian copula is too optimistic on diversification benefits, while the Gumbel copula is too pessimistic. Moreover, these differences are significant

Stress Testing with Student's t Dependence

In this study we propose the use of the Student's t dependence function to model dependence between asset returns when conducting stress tests. To properly include stress testing in a risk management system, it is important to have accurate information about the (joint) probabilities of extreme outcomes. Consequently, a model for the behavior of risk factors is necessary, specifying the marginal distributions and their dependence. Traditionally, dependence is described by a correlation matrix, implying the use of the dependence function inherent in the multivariate normal (Gaussian) distribution. Recent studies have cast serious doubt on the appropriateness of the Gaussian dependence function to model dependence between extreme negative returns. The student's t dependence function provides an attractive alternative. In this paper, we introduce four tests to analyze the empirical fit of both dependence functions. The empirical results indicate that probabilities assigned to stress tests are largely influenced by the choice of dependence function. The statistical tests reject the Gaussian dependence function, but do not reject the Student's t dependence function