Risk-Return Profiles of New Ventures: An Empirical Study

This study examines how risk evolves in private, venture capital backed companies. It finds that the stochastic Ito processes assumed for public companies probably apply to young, private companies as well. However, the parameters, drift rate and standard deviation, are generally higher. Venture capitalists have viewed companies as evolving through stages, and this study assesses the probabilities of success and failure at each stage. The underlying process of price evolution appears much smoother than the stage model may suggest. The valuation mediods developed for public securities, including option pricing, should apply to private companies as well. This study is a step toward measuring the needed parameters

Valuation of Early-Stage Ventures: Option Valuation Models vs. Traditional Approaches

This paper presents a new method for valuing early stage ventures, a method which views new ventures as multi-stage call options. It examines the traditional methods for valuing such ventures--the ubiquitous Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method using a risk adjusted discount rate, and the Venture Capital method which uses high discount rates to offset optimistic forecasts--and describes their conceptual disadvantages visa vis the Option Method. In order to make the Option Method a practical alternative to traditional approaches, the paper presents an algorithm for valuing multi-stage options, and it develops the needed input data using venture capital archives and public offerings. The Option Method is applied to a typical early-stage investment, producing values close to those predicted by venture capital rules of thumb. In contrast, the DCF method badly underestimates the value of the venture. At this time the Option Method is a practical way to value early-stage ventures, both internal ventures and start-up companies. It offers many advantages over the venture capitalists\u27 s rules of thumb

Plasma Chemokine Levels Are Associated with the Presence and Extent of Angiographic Coronary Collaterals in Chronic Ischemic Heart Disease

In patients with chronic ischemic heart disease (IHD), the presence and extent of spontaneously visible coronary collaterals are powerful determinants of clinical outcome. There is marked heterogeneity in the recruitment of coronary collaterals amongst patients with similar degrees of coronary artery stenoses, but the biological basis of this heterogeneity is not known. Chemokines are potent mediators of vascular remodeling in diverse biological settings. Their role in coronary collateralization has not been investigated. We sought to determine whether plasma levels of angiogenic and angiostatic chemokines are associated with of the presence and extent of coronary collaterals in patients with chronic IHD.We measured plasma concentrations of angiogenic and angiostatic chemokine ligands in 156 consecutive subjects undergoing coronary angiography with at least one ≥90% coronary stenosis and determined the presence and extent of spontaneously visible coronary collaterals using the Rentrop scoring system. Eighty-eight subjects (56%) had evidence of coronary collaterals. In a multivariable regression model, the concentration of the angiogenic ligands CXCL5, CXCL8 and CXCL12, hyperlipidemia, and an occluded artery were associated with the presence of collaterals; conversely, the concentration of the angiostatic ligand CXCL11, interferon-γ, hypertension and diabetes were associated with the absence of collaterals (ROC area 0.91). When analyzed according to extent of collateralization, higher Rentrop scores were significantly associated with increased concentration of the angiogenic ligand CXCL1 (p<0.0001), and decreased concentrations of angiostatic ligands CXCL9 (p<0.0001), CXCL10 (p = 0.002), and CXCL11 (p = 0.0002), and interferon-γ (p = 0.0004).Plasma chemokine concentrations are associated with the presence and extent of spontaneously visible coronary artery collaterals and may be mechanistically involved in their recruitment

Pulmonary Vaccination as a Novel Treatment for Lung Fibrosis

Pulmonary fibrosis is an untreatable, uniformly fatal disease of unclear etiology that is the result of unremitting chronic inflammation. Recent studies have implicated bone marrow derived fibrocytes and M2 macrophages as playing key roles in propagating fibrosis. While the disease process is characterized by the accumulation of lymphocytes in the lung parenchyma and alveolar space, their role remains unclear. In this report we definitively demonstrate the ability of T cells to regulate lung inflammation leading to fibrosis. Specifically we demonstrate the ability of intranasal vaccinia vaccination to inhibit M2 macrophage generation and fibrocyte recruitment and hence the accumulation of collagen and death due to pulmonary failure. Mechanistically, we demonstrate the ability of lung Th1 cells to prevent fibrosis as vaccinia failed to prevent disease in Rag−/− mice or in mice in which the T cells lacked IFN-γ. Furthermore, vaccination 3 months prior to the initiation of fibrosis was able to mitigate the disease. Our findings clearly demonstrate the role of T cells in regulating pulmonary fibrosis as well as suggest that vaccinia-induced immunotherapy in the lung may prove to be a novel treatment approach to this otherwise fatal disease

Elevated serum neutrophil elastase is related to prehypertension and airflow limitation in obese women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neutrophil elastase level/activity is elevated in a variety of diseases such as atherosclerosis, systolic hypertension and obstructive pulmonary disease. It is unknown whether obese individuals with prehypertension also have elevated neutrophil elastase, and if so, whether it has a deleterious effect on pulmonary function. Objectives: To determine neutrophil elastase levels in obese prehypertensive women and investigate correlations with pulmonary function tests.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty obese prehypertensive women were compared with 30 obese normotensive subjects and 30 healthy controls. The study groups were matched for age. Measurements: The following were determined: body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, lipid profile, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum neutrophil elastase, and pulmonary function tests including forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV₁/FVC ratio.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Serum neutrophil elastase concentration was significantly higher in both prehypertensive (405.8 ± 111.6 ng/ml) and normotensive (336.5 ± 81.5 ng/ml) obese women than in control non-obese women (243.9 ± 23.9 ng/ml); the level was significantly higher in the prehypertensive than the normotensive obese women. FEV1, FVC and FEV1/FVC ratio in both prehypertensive and normotensive obese women were significantly lower than in normal controls, but there was no statistically significant difference between the prehypertensive and normotensive obese women. In prehypertensive obese women, there were significant positive correlations between neutrophil elastase and body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, high sensitivity C-reactive protein and negative correlations with high density lipoprotein cholesterol, FEV1, FVC and FEV1/FVC.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Neutrophil elastase concentration is elevated in obese prehypertensive women along with an increase in high sensitivity C-reactive protein which may account for dyslipidemia and airflow dysfunction in the present study population.</p

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Rare coding variants in PLCG2, ABI3, and TREM2 implicate microglial-mediated innate immunity in Alzheimer's disease

We identified rare coding variants associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in a 3-stage case-control study of 85,133 subjects. In stage 1, 34,174 samples were genotyped using a whole-exome microarray. In stage 2, we tested associated variants (P<1×10-4) in 35,962 independent samples using de novo genotyping and imputed genotypes. In stage 3, an additional 14,997 samples were used to test the most significant stage 2 associations (P<5×10-8) using imputed genotypes. We observed 3 novel genome-wide significant (GWS) AD associated non-synonymous variants; a protective variant in PLCG2 (rs72824905/p.P522R, P=5.38×10-10, OR=0.68, MAFcases=0.0059, MAFcontrols=0.0093), a risk variant in ABI3 (rs616338/p.S209F, P=4.56×10-10, OR=1.43, MAFcases=0.011, MAFcontrols=0.008), and a novel GWS variant in TREM2 (rs143332484/p.R62H, P=1.55×10-14, OR=1.67, MAFcases=0.0143, MAFcontrols=0.0089), a known AD susceptibility gene. These protein-coding changes are in genes highly expressed in microglia and highlight an immune-related protein-protein interaction network enriched for previously identified AD risk genes. These genetic findings provide additional evidence that the microglia-mediated innate immune response contributes directly to AD development