295 research outputs found

    RECOVERY SCENARIOS FOR IRELAND. ESRI RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 7 MAY 2009

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    The Irish economy is facing extremely challenging times. It is in the throes of a deep recession, unemployment is rising rapidly and the Irish banking system is facing serious funding difficulties. As a consequence, by the end of 2010 output per head will have fallen back to its 2001 level. Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that the potential growth rate of the economy is around 3 per cent a year. Given the very severe recession that Ireland is currently experiencing, this means that when the world economy eventually recovers the Irish economy can be expected to experience a period of above average growth. On this basis, output per head could be restored to its 2007 level by the middle of the next decade. Consistent with this forecast, our estimates suggest that there will be a permanent loss of output of 10 per cent compared to where the economy might have been. This will represent a very painful permanent “scar” on the economy arising from the current recession

    The HERMES-13 macroeconomic model of the Irish economy. ESRI WP460. July 2013

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    The HERMES macroeconomic model has been used extensively for over 25 years to carry out medium-term forecasting and scenario analysis of the Irish economy. Most recently the model has been used to generate the scenarios underpinning the 2013 edition of the ESRI's Medium-Term Review. In the long period over which the model has been used for policy analysis, the Irish economy has undergone substantial change and new approaches to modelling important economic relationships have been developed. This paper outlines the structure and behaviour of the most recent version of the HERMES model (HERMES-13). We describe the key mechanisms and the modelling innovations which have been introduced to deal with major changes in the economy. As the model draws on a range of research on the Irish economy, we describe how this work has been incorporated into the model to better capture key economic relationships. Finally, we examine the results of a series of shocks to key variables carried out using the model. This provides a benchmark against which to evaluate the long-run properties of the model as well as illustrating how the model can shed light on the key transmission channels in the economy. This paper, and the accompanying detailed model listing and estimation output, provides a basic reference manual that practitioners and interested parties can use to interpret model output and, it is hoped, make suggestions for further model development and improvement

    Diagnostic development for determining the joint temperature/soot statistics in hydrocarbon-fueled pool fires : LDRD final report.

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    A joint temperature/soot laser-based optical diagnostic was developed for the determination of the joint temperature/soot probability density function (PDF) for hydrocarbon-fueled meter-scale turbulent pool fires. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort was in support of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program which seeks to produce computational models for the simulation of fire environments for risk assessment and analysis. The development of this laser-based optical diagnostic is motivated by the need for highly-resolved spatio-temporal information for which traditional diagnostic probes, such as thermocouples, are ill-suited. The in-flame gas temperature is determined from the shape of the nitrogen Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering (CARS) signature and the soot volume fraction is extracted from the intensity of the Laser-Induced Incandescence (LII) image of the CARS probed region. The current state of the diagnostic will be discussed including the uncertainty and physical limits of the measurements as well as the future applications of this probe

    Medium-Term Review: 2008-2015, No. 11 May 2008

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    Despite the very real difficulties that are currently being encountered, the essential message of this Review is that the economy will eventually rebound, and return to its medium-term growth path. The analysis in the Review suggests that the Irish economy is resilient in the face of adverse circumstances. When we wrote the last Medium-Term Review in December 2005 we were more concerned that a misplaced sense of economic invincibility had taken hold in Ireland and we sought to draw attention to the very real dangers facing the economy at that time. Unfortunately, some of these problems have now come to pass (along with some we did not envisage). However, if properly managed the slowdown that is occurring in the economy today should pass and the economy should recover fully in the early years of the next decade

    Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism

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    The American economic system has always been the foundation of our national strength. But this foundation is showing cracks—from high levels of income inequality, declining economic mobility, and persistent economic insecurity among low- and middle-income Americans.Many now conclude that our economic system is broken. Recent polling data show that trust in capitalism is declining, especially among younger people. A 2018 Gallup poll found that less than half of respondents (45%) ages 18-29 held positive views of capitalism. This shift represents a 20-point decline since 2010 in the share of young adults' who held positive views of capitalism.The upshot is clear: American capitalism is in trouble. We need to strengthen our system to ensure that more people participate in our economic success. This means updating and adjusting our policies to ensure the outcomes of our market-based economy are consistent with fundamental American values of freedom, opportunity, and equality.Doing so isn't just an imperative for economic reasons. We believe that strengthening capitalism is as important for the health of the American economy as it is for the strength of our democracy. High levels of economic inequality will only contribute to increasing political dysfunction.The essays contained in this volume seek to clarify the lines of debate on some of the greatest economic policy challenges of our time and present evidence- based analysis on how to address them. It examines the hypothesis that growing market concentration is inhibiting a dynamic and competitive economy. Next, it examines the health of America's fiscal situation and what it implies about the continued strength of our market-based economy. Finally, it takes a hard look at recent policy proposals that would dramatically raise taxes on the rich and expand access to public benefit programs in response to high levels of income inequality and declining economic mobility.The perspectives presented in this volume are not intended to represent the consensus view of Aspen Economic Strategy Group members. Our goal is to equip policymakers with the best analysis available to better inform decision making and to help Americans better understand the difficult trade-offs our leaders face in making such decisions.There is no single solution to the challenges facing the American economy. The important role of evidence-based policies with bipartisan appeal, however, is difficult to overstate. This volume cannot claim to represent the end of thinking on ways to strengthen American capitalism, but we believe it provides a useful start

    Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

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    Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

    Canvass: a crowd-sourced, natural-product screening library for exploring biological space

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    NCATS thanks Dingyin Tao for assistance with compound characterization. This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health (NIH). R.B.A. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1665145) and NIH (GM126221). M.K.B. acknowledges support from NIH (5R01GM110131). N.Z.B. thanks support from NIGMS, NIH (R01GM114061). J.K.C. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1665331). J.C. acknowledges support from the Fogarty International Center, NIH (TW009872). P.A.C. acknowledges support from the National Cancer Institute (NCI), NIH (R01 CA158275), and the NIH/National Institute of Aging (P01 AG012411). N.K.G. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1464898). B.C.G. thanks the support of NSF (RUI: 213569), the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation, and the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Foundation. C.C.H. thanks the start-up funds from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography for support. J.N.J. acknowledges support from NIH (GM 063557, GM 084333). A.D.K. thanks the support from NCI, NIH (P01CA125066). D.G.I.K. acknowledges support from the National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health (1 R01 AT008088) and the Fogarty International Center, NIH (U01 TW00313), and gratefully acknowledges courtesies extended by the Government of Madagascar (Ministere des Eaux et Forets). O.K. thanks NIH (R01GM071779) for financial support. T.J.M. acknowledges support from NIH (GM116952). S.M. acknowledges support from NIH (DA045884-01, DA046487-01, AA026949-01), the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Peer Reviewed Medical Research Program (W81XWH-17-1-0256), and NCI, NIH, through a Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA008748). K.N.M. thanks the California Department of Food and Agriculture Pierce's Disease and Glassy Winged Sharpshooter Board for support. B.T.M. thanks Michael Mullowney for his contribution in the isolation, elucidation, and submission of the compounds in this work. P.N. acknowledges support from NIH (R01 GM111476). L.E.O. acknowledges support from NIH (R01-HL25854, R01-GM30859, R0-1-NS-12389). L.E.B., J.K.S., and J.A.P. thank the NIH (R35 GM-118173, R24 GM-111625) for research support. F.R. thanks the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC) for financial support. I.S. thanks the University of Oklahoma Startup funds for support. J.T.S. acknowledges support from ACS PRF (53767-ND1) and NSF (CHE-1414298), and thanks Drs. Kellan N. Lamb and Michael J. Di Maso for their synthetic contribution. B.S. acknowledges support from NIH (CA78747, CA106150, GM114353, GM115575). W.S. acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (R15GM116032, P30 GM103450), and thanks the University of Arkansas for startup funds and the Arkansas Biosciences Institute (ABI) for seed money. C.R.J.S. acknowledges support from NIH (R01GM121656). D.S.T. thanks the support of NIH (T32 CA062948-Gudas) and PhRMA Foundation to A.L.V., NIH (P41 GM076267) to D.S.T., and CCSG NIH (P30 CA008748) to C.B. Thompson. R.E.T. acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (GM129465). R.J.T. thanks the American Cancer Society (RSG-12-253-01-CDD) and NSF (CHE1361173) for support. D.A.V. thanks the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation, the National Science Foundation (CHE-0353662, CHE-1005253, and CHE-1725142), the Beckman Foundation, the Sherman Fairchild Foundation, the John Stauffer Charitable Trust, and the Christian Scholars Foundation for support. J.W. acknowledges support from the American Cancer Society through the Research Scholar Grant (RSG-13-011-01-CDD). W.M.W.acknowledges support from NIGMS, NIH (GM119426), and NSF (CHE1755698). A.Z. acknowledges support from NSF (CHE-1463819). (Intramural Research Program of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health (NIH); CHE-1665145 - NSF; CHE-1665331 - NSF; CHE-1464898 - NSF; RUI: 213569 - NSF; CHE-1414298 - NSF; CHE1361173 - NSF; CHE1755698 - NSF; CHE-1463819 - NSF; GM126221 - NIH; 5R01GM110131 - NIH; GM 063557 - NIH; GM 084333 - NIH; R01GM071779 - NIH; GM116952 - NIH; DA045884-01 - NIH; DA046487-01 - NIH; AA026949-01 - NIH; R01 GM111476 - NIH; R01-HL25854 - NIH; R01-GM30859 - NIH; R0-1-NS-12389 - NIH; R35 GM-118173 - NIH; R24 GM-111625 - NIH; CA78747 - NIH; CA106150 - NIH; GM114353 - NIH; GM115575 - NIH; R01GM121656 - NIH; T32 CA062948-Gudas - NIH; P41 GM076267 - NIH; R01GM114061 - NIGMS, NIH; R15GM116032 - NIGMS, NIH; P30 GM103450 - NIGMS, NIH; GM129465 - NIGMS, NIH; GM119426 - NIGMS, NIH; TW009872 - Fogarty International Center, NIH; U01 TW00313 - Fogarty International Center, NIH; R01 CA158275 - National Cancer Institute (NCI), NIH; P01 AG012411 - NIH/National Institute of Aging; Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation; Arnold and Mabel Beckman Foundation; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; P01CA125066 - NCI, NIH; 1 R01 AT008088 - National Center for Complementary and Integrative Health; W81XWH-17-1-0256 - Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Peer Reviewed Medical Research Program; P30 CA008748 - NCI, NIH, through a Cancer Center Support Grant; California Department of Food and Agriculture Pierce's Disease and Glassy Winged Sharpshooter Board; American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC); University of Oklahoma Startup funds; 53767-ND1 - ACS PRF; PhRMA Foundation; P30 CA008748 - CCSG NIH; RSG-12-253-01-CDD - American Cancer Society; RSG-13-011-01-CDD - American Cancer Society; CHE-0353662 - National Science Foundation; CHE-1005253 - National Science Foundation; CHE-1725142 - National Science Foundation; Beckman Foundation; Sherman Fairchild Foundation; John Stauffer Charitable Trust; Christian Scholars Foundation)Published versionSupporting documentatio

    Safety of extended uses of UV-treated baker's yeast as a Novel Food pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2015/2283

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    In 2014, the EFSA NDA Panel concluded that UV-treated baker's yeast containing up to 3.5 Mio IU of vitamin D/100 g, is safe under the proposed conditions of use for yeast-leavened breads, rolls and fine bakery wares, and food supplements. Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was asked to deliver an opinion on an application for an extension of the use of UV-treated baker's yeast as a novel food (NF) pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2015/2283. In this extension of use, the applicant proposed a broad range of food categories to which the NF can be added. On the basis of the proposed uses and maximum use levels, the Panel estimated the potential exposure to vitamin D from the NF and the potential combined exposure to vitamin D including also exposure from the background diet and food supplements. The Panel notes that the upper level (UL) for one age group, i.e. children aged 4-10 years, is exceeded by 4%, when summing up the highest P95 estimate for the background diet (including food supplements) and the highest P95 estimate for vitamin D from the NF under the proposed uses and maximum use levels. The Panel notes, however, the highly conservative approach for estimating the potential intake of vitamin D from the NF, given that the applicant has proposed 34 FoodEx2 level 2 food categories. Thus, the Panel considers that the UL for children aged between 4 and 10 years is highly unlikely to be exceeded. The Panel concludes that the NF is safe under the proposed conditions of use

    Safety of dried fruits of Synsepalum dulcificum as a novel food pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2015/2283

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    Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was asked to deliver an opinion on dried fruits of Synsepalum dulcificum as a novel food (NF) pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2015/2283. The NF is pitted and dried (by lyophilisation) fruits of S. dulcificum. The NF contains the glycoprotein miraculin (≤ 2.5%) which causes sour and acidic foods to taste sweet. The fruits have a documented history of consumption in Africa and products thereof can be found in different markets worldwide. Information on the production process and the composition of the NF is sufficient and does not raise safety concerns. The applicant proposes to use the NF as or in food supplements for the adult population, excluding pregnant and lactating women, at a maximum daily amount of 0.9 g. Taking into account these conditions of use, the Panel considers that the consumption of the NF is not nutritionally disadvantageous. The provided genotoxicity studies do not raise concerns for genotoxicity of the NF. The Panel concludes that the only dose tested in a 90-day oral toxicity study of 2,000 mg/kg body weight (bw) per day was not associated with adverse effects. By applying an uncertainty factor of 200, the Panel concludes that the NF is safe at an intake level of 10 mg/kg bw per day, corresponding to a maximum daily intake of 0.7 g of the NF for the target population, rather than 0.9 g/day as proposed by the applicant
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