Biases in Indian summer monsoon precipitation forecasts in the Unified Model and their relationship with BSISO index.

Abstract This study shows that the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) dominates the Indian summer monsoon low‐precipitation bias in the Met Office Unified model. Analyzing a recent 9‐year period (June, July, August only), it is found that the precipitation bias is dominated by break and break‐to‐active transition BSISO phases, while some of the other phases have no bias at all over a 7‐day forecast. Evidence of a link to upstream effects is found, in that there is a delayed reduction in the moisture flux entering India from the west. It is also shown that an increase in the net flow of moisture out of India to the east is strongly linked to the low‐precipitation bias, and there is some evidence that this is related to a lack of low‐pressure systems over India. Most atmospheric models have substantial rainfall biases over India, and these results may indicate the circulation patterns responsible. Plain Language Summary The Met Office Unified Model (UM) is widely used worldwide for weather forecasting, climate prediction and environmental research. An important deficiency of the UM, in common with many other weather and climate models, is that it simulates significantly too little rainfall over India, when averaged over the summer monsoon season. Indian monsoon rainfall is important to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people, and these errors in the models have knock‐on consequences for weather and climate prediction around the world. This study shows that the UM's rainfall bias is dominated by periods when the general monsoon behavior is in transition from low‐activity to high‐activity, while in other periods, the rainfall forecasts perform much better. These results will help us to better understand the causes of the model bias. A systematic evaluation of the UM moisture flow has also been carried out; this suggests that a key problem in these low to high‐activity transition periods is a replacement of monsoon cyclonic systems with too much purely westerly flow out of India. The results should also be of value in weather forecasting, in identifying weather regimes where we have relatively high, and relatively low, confidence in the forecasts

Regional differences in the response of rainfall to convectively coupled Kelvin waves over tropical Africa

The representation of convection remains one of the most important sources of bias in global models and evaluation methods are needed that show that models provide the correct mean state and variability; both for the correct reasons. Here we develop a novel approach for evaluating rainfall variability due to CCKWs in this region. A phase cycle was defined for the CCKW cycle in OLR and used to composite rainfall anomalies. We characterize the observed (TRMM) rainfall response to CCKWs over tropical Africa in April and evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations: a parameterized convection simulation (P25) and the first pan-Africa convection permitting simulation (CP4). TRMM mean rainfall is enhanced and suppressed by CCKW activity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall and dry days is coupled with CCKW activity. Focusing on regional differences, we show for the first time that: there is a dipole between West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea involving onshore/offshore shifts in rainfall; and the transition to enhanced rainfall over west equatorial Africa occurs one phase before the transition over east equatorial Africa. The global model used to drive the RCMs simulated CCKWs with mean amplitudes of 75%-82% of observations. The RCMs simulated coherent responses to the CCKWs and captured the large-scale spatial patterns and phase relationships in rainfall although the simulated rainfall response is weaker than observations and there are regional biases which are bigger away from the equator. P25 produced a closer match to TRMM mean rainfall anomalies than CP4 although the response in dry days was more closely simulated by CP4

Synoptic timescale linkage between midlatitude winter troughs Sahara temperature patterns and northern Congo rainfall: A building block of regional climate variability

A coherent synoptic sequence, mostly over North Africa, is identified whereby an upper-level midlatitude trough (in November–March) excites several days of quasi-stationary near-surface warming across the Sahara, leading to rainfall events over northern Congo (NC), and perturbed weather more widely. Ahead of NC rainfall events, composite sequences first identify troughs for several days near Iberia, followed by relatively quick transfer to the Central Mediterranean (CMed). Iberia and CMed daily trough-strength indices reveal that both lead to warming and NC rainfall. Iberia trough linkages develop through West Africa and take longer to reach NC, while CMed linkages reach NC faster (2–3 days), with impact extent focused mostly south and east of CMed. Building up to the rainfall events, initial warming over the central Sahara migrates southeastward close to NC, ultimately with typical magnitude of about 1–2°C at 10–15°N. Such anomalies are statistically predictive for NC daily rainfall and associated nearby atmospheric features: anomalous low-level southerly wind and increased moisture; anomalous low-level westerly wind and vertical easterly shear to 600 hPa; increased mid-level moisture (600 hPa), which along with low-level moisture, connects northward into midlatitudes. A secondary route identified by which Iberia troughs can impact NC rainfall is through direct atmospheric teleconnection with precipitation to the west of NC, and subsequent migration of that convection eastward into NC. The eastern side of NC generally shows a small lag on western parts, and links more strongly to CMed troughs. Taken together, the lagged synoptic expression of Iberia and CMed troughs is widespread over several days, including much of North Africa (to equatorial latitudes), southwestern Asia, eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. Overall, these results can contribute to situational awareness for weather forecasters across the zones influenced by the troughs, while also providing a framework for climate timescale analyses

Увеличение темпов прироста запасов углеводородов с помощью инновационных технологий на примере Омской области

Проведен анализ перспектив нефтегазоносности Омской области на основе данных инновационной технологии квантово-оптической фильтрации космоснимков. Приведены физические принципы технологии квантово-оптической фильтрации. На примере Омской области показана эффективность применения технологии квантово-оптической фильтрации при решении задачи повышения темпов прироста запасов углеводородного сырья

Non-operative treatment for perforated gastro-duodenal peptic ulcer in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy: a case report

BACKGROUND: Clinical characteristics and complications of Duchenne muscular dystrophy caused by skeletal and cardiac muscle degeneration are well known. Gastro-intestinal involvement has also been recognised in these patients. However an acute perforated gastro-duodenal peptic ulcer has not been documented up to now. CASE PRESENTATION: A 26-year-old male with Duchenne muscular dystrophy with a clinical and radiographic diagnosis of acute perforated gastro-duodenal peptic ulcer is treated non-operatively with naso-gastric suction and intravenous medication. Gastrointestinal involvement in Duchenne muscular dystrophy and therapeutic considerations in a high risk patient are discussed. CONCLUSION: Non-surgical treatment for perforated gastro-duodenal peptic ulcer should be considered in high risk patients, as is the case in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Patients must be carefully observed and operated on if non-operative treatment is unsuccessful

Coronary artery bypass grafting and sensorineural hearing loss, a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss is routinely encountered by the otologist. The etiology is varied and often identifiable. One of the relatively less frequent causes is surgery. Apart from being an established entity with otological surgeries, sensorineural hearing loss has also been known to occur after non-otological procedures under general anesthesia. Commonest amongst these procedures is cardiopulmonary bypass, an association that has long been recognized. However, despite the proposition of diverse hypotheses in the past, the pathophysiology remains unclear. METHODS: The study is a prospective matched cohort study that will be carried out in Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. Participants among exposed would include all those patients who would be undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery in the hospital who fall under the criteria for inclusion. Unexposed group would comprise of patients undergoing a non-bypass procedure of similar duration under the same type of anesthesia who meet the selection criteria. Both these groups will undergo audiometric testing at our hospital on three different occasions during the course of this study. Initially before the procedure to test the baseline hearing capacity; then one week after the procedure to assess any changes in hearing ability following the surgery; and finally a third audiogram at six weeks follow-up to assess further changes in any hearing deficits noted during the second phase of testing. Certain variables including the subjects' demographics and those concerning the procedure itself will be noted and used later for risk factors analysis. A detailed past medical and surgical history will also be obtained. Data analysis would include calculation of relative risk and significance of the results, by running the chi-square test. Other statistical tests like Fisher exact test may then be employed to facilitate data interpretation. Continuous scale may then be employed and multivariate linear regression used. DISCUSSION: This study is planned to obtain a better understanding of the correlation between sudden sensorineural hearing loss and cardiopulmonary bypass. Being the first major cohort trial in this line of investigation, the project is designed to identify the existence of any significant relationship between cardiopulmonary bypass and sensorineural hearing deficit

Escherichia coli induces apoptosis and proliferation of mammary cells

Mammary cell apoptosis and proliferation were assessed after injection of Escherichia coli into the left mammary quarters of six cows. Bacteriological analysis of foremilk samples revealed coliform infection in the injected quarters of four cows. Milk somatic cell counts increased in these quarters and peaked at 24 h after bacterial injection. Body temperature also increased, peaking at 12 h postinjection, The number of apoptotic cells was significantly higher in the mastitic tissue than in the uninfected control. Expression of Bax and interleukin-1 beta converting enzyme increased in the mastitic tissue at 24 h and 72 h postinfection, whereas Bcl-2 expression decreased at 24 h but did not differ significantly from the control at 72 h postinfection, Induction of matrix metalloproteinase-g, stromelysin-1 and urokinase-type plasminogen activator was also observed in the mastitic tissue. Moreover, cell proliferation increased in the infected tissue, These results demonstrate that Escherichia coli-induced mastitis promotes apoptosis and cell proliferation

Radio pulsar populations

The goal of this article is to summarize the current state of play in the field of radio pulsar statistics. Simply put, from the observed sample of objects from a variety of surveys with different telescopes, we wish to infer the properties of the underlying sample and to connect these with other astrophysical populations (for example supernova remnants or X-ray binaries). The main problem we need to tackle is the fact that, like many areas of science, the observed populations are often heavily biased by a variety of selection effects. After a review of the main effects relevant to radio pulsars, I discuss techniques to correct for them and summarize some of the most recent results. Perhaps the main point I would like to make in this article is that current models to describe the population are far from complete and often suffer from strong covariances between input parameters. That said, there are a number of very interesting conclusions that can be made concerning the evolution of neutron stars based on current data. While the focus of this review will be on the population of isolated Galactic pulsars, I will also briefly comment on millisecond and binary pulsars as well as the pulsar content of globular clusters and the Magellanic Clouds.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, to appear in Proceedings of ICREA Workshop on The High-Energy Emission from Pulsars and their Systems, Sant Cugat, Spain, 2010 April 12-16 (Springer

Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection-permitting model

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being used to improve understanding of regional climate. Here, a new 10-year CP simulation is used to study the characteristics of rainfall and atmospheric water budget for East Africa and the Lake Victoria basin. The explicit representation of convection leads to a widespread improvement in the intensities and diurnal cycle of rainfall when compared with a parametrised simulation. Differences in large-scale moisture fluxes lead to a shift in the mean rainfall pattern from the Congo to Lake Victoria basin in the CP simulation - highlighting the important connection between local changes in the representation of convection and larger scale dynamics and rainfall. Stronger lake-land contrasts in buoyancy in the CP model lead to a stronger nocturnal land breeze over Lake Victoria, increasing evaporation and moisture flux convergence (MFC), and likely unrealistically high rainfall. However, for the mountains east of the lake, the CP model produces a diurnal rainfall cycle much more similar to satellite estimates, which is related to differences in the timing of MFC. Results here demonstrate that, whilst care is needed regarding lake forcings, a CP approach offers a more realistic representation of several rainfall characteristics through a more physically-based realisation of the atmospheric dynamics around the complex topography of East Africa

Angiogenesis in Interstitial Lung Diseases: a pathogenetic hallmark or a bystander?

The past ten years parallels have been drawn between the biology of cancer and pulmonary fibrosis. The unremitting recruitment and maintenance of the altered fibroblast phenotype with generation and proliferation of immortal myofibroblasts is reminiscent with the transformation of cancer cells. A hallmark of tumorigenesis is the production of new blood vessels to facilitate tumor growth and mediate organ-specific metastases. On the other hand several chronic fibroproliferative disorders including fibrotic lung diseases are associated with aberrant angiogenesis. Angiogenesis, the process of new blood vessel formation is under strict regulation determined by a dual, yet opposing balance of angiogenic and angiostatic factors that promote or inhibit neovascularization, respectively. While numerous studies have examined so far the interplay between aberrant vascular and matrix remodeling the relative role of angiogenesis in the initiation and/or progression of the fibrotic cascade still remains elusive and controversial. The current article reviews data concerning the pathogenetic role of angiogenesis in the most prevalent and studied members of ILD disease-group such as IIPs and sarcoidosis, presents some of the future perspectives and formulates questions for potential further research