Single equation models for inflation forecasting in Rwanda

This study evaluates Phillips curve forecasts of inflation for Rwanda. The study relies on the use of various single equation prototype Phillips curve models, as described by Stock and Watson (2008). Pseudo out-of-sample comparison tests are used to evaluate the forecast performance of these Phillips curve forecasts relative to the AR (autoregression) benchmark forecasts. In this regard, tests of equal forecast accuracy based on mean square forecast error and those based on forecast encompassing as used by several scholars (for example, Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005), Rapach and Weber (2004)) are reported. Furthermore, the results from forecasts using inflation in levels and in differences as the dependent variable are reported, to check the sensitivity to this specification issue. The study finds that the Phillips curve and augmented Phillips curve forecasts outperform the AR benchmark forecasts at one- and two-quarter horizons. The output gap, exchange rate and money supply (M3) are found to be good predictors of inflation in Rwanda in the generalised Phillips curve context. It is therefore strongly recommended that Rwandan economic policymakers take into consideration these variables when forecasting inflation

Regional Trade and Competitiveness of Rwandan Agriculture: Empirical Analysis of Selected Priority Foodstuffs

This study aims at investigating the impact of regional integration on the agricultural trade development by focusing on wheat flour, maize grain, maize flour, potato, rice and soybean, fresh bean and dried beans sectors selected among priority foodstuffs in Rwanda. This is motivated by the lack of the studies comparing the competitive performance of all priority staple foods sub-sectors in Rwanda in the context of regional trade. The analysis used secondary data obtained through documentary reviews and those collected from the National Bank of Rwanda and FAOSTAT on imports and exports of Rwanda from 2007 to 2017. Apart from the literature review, the analysis was conducted using the Net Export Index (NEI) and the Grubel-Lloyd (GL) measure. The literature review and empirical results reveal that Rwanda benefited from its accession to regional and global trade blocks, especially in terms of the ease of access to external markets through the establishment of the Common Market, the Customs Union and the alleviation of some of trade barriers for basic foodstuffs and consumer goods. The analysis of the Net Export Index and the Grubel-Lloyd measures revealed that Rwanda can have a comparative advantage for wheat flour, fresh beans and dried beans at regional and global markets if measures aiming at developing a dynamic commercial network and improving agricultural value chains productivity are put forward

Conflict-induced displacement as a catalyst for agricultural innovation: findings from South Sudan

This article explores how conflict-induced displacement influences agricultural innovation processes and systems, and its implications after the return home or permanent resettlement of smallholder farmers. Results show that high rates of agricultural innovation occurred during displacement in the Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), many of which were maintained afterwards. Respondents cited the need for adaptation to new social and physical circumstances, changed gender roles, and enhanced inter-household communication as contributing to increased opportunities for knowledge exchange, trade, and importantly, the development of new networks, modes of organisation and social norms. Furthermore, returnees to South Sudan have embodied these changes together with new values, habits and expectations. New linkages continued across borders between returnees and non-returnees, facilitating knowledge exchange and access to resources, markets and sources of ideas. A high degree of autonomous innovation capacity was also evident. Further research is required on the dynamics and processes associated with innovation in conflict-induced displacement. It is important for policy makers to encourage approaches that seek to actively tap into and build on the institutional, human and social capital built during displacement

Technological and Economic Factors Determining ICT Level : Evidence from Rural Micro-Businesses in Democratic Republic of Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the 11th largest country in the world although wars have devastated the economics of the country. In this vast but poor area, there are a lot of small businesses, particularly in agriculture. Therefore, focusing on small enterprises and their use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) can be a key issue in enhancing the nation's infrastructure, communications, social relations and economy. This research aims at increasing our understanding of these issues together by analysing the effects of ICT in micro‐level businesses in a developing country. The research focused on the rural neighbourhood of Ngandanjike in the area of Mbujimayi in south DRC. Two hundred agricultural micro‐entrepreneurs were randomly surveyed by a Non‐Profit Organisation (NPO) about their current situation regarding their ICT use, ICT access, mobile phone use, ICT education level and accounting information systems. Multivariate statistics models were used in the data analysis. After analysing the regression of the six ICT factors and additional financial data as total revenues and total assets, we found that micro‐entrepreneurial total assets are connected with management accounting with ICT, ICT education level and ICT adoption. We contribute to existing research by adding empirical evidence, at a microeconomic level of agricultural micro‐enterprises, on the effects of ICT access and use as an engine of local economic growth. Additionally, this research can impact policy decisions regarding micro‐entrepreneurs, seeking to reduce poverty by understanding what ICT factors are most valued and most needed by these micro‐entrepreneurs to help them with sustainable economic activity and to alleviate the poverty. Policy makers need to emphasise training and motivation for micro‐entrepreneurs in order to deepen their ICT knowledge and to help their business.peerReviewe