Lived religion in a plural society: a resource or liability

Recently there is a renewed academic interest in religion bringing it back on the global political agenda. Religion in the post modern global order is fast emerging as a new organizing principle in the face of multi-polarity, trans-nationality and sweeping pluralisation of peoples. Contrary to the secularist self believe, the modern has failed to take over the tradition including religion. Rather a logical opposite seems to be happening, questioning the very presumptions of the modernity project. The present paper is a narrative on this creative tension in the religious modern and post modern. The paper is crafted into four sections. First section seeks to pin down the genesis of “religious” in the search for social order and consciousness beyond the material world. Second section deals with the unfolding of enlightenment project and its manifest consequence with the birth of secularism master theory. Third section delves deep into the immediate Indian religious lived experiences under foreign rule up to the sweeping spell of globalisation. Fourth and last part of the essay makes a case for universality of a multicultural world and religious secularism

mic Efficiency and Pareto Optimality in a Stochastic OLG Model with Production and Social Security

We analyze the interaction between risk sharing and capital accumulation in a stochastic OLG model with production. We give a complete characterization of interim Pareto optimality. Our characterization also subsumes equilibria with a PAYG social security system. In a competitive equilibrium interim Pareto optimality is equivalent to intergenerational exchange efficiency, which in turn implies dynamic efficiency. Furthermore, dynamic efficiency does not rule out a Pareto-improving role for a social security system. Social security can provide insurance against macroeconomic risk, namely aggregate productivity risk in the second period of life (old age) through dynamic risk sharing. We briefly relate our results to models without uncertainty where the notions of exchange efficiency, dynamic efficiency and interim Pareto optimality are all equivalent in a competitive equilibrium.Stochastic OLG Model, Dynamic Efficiency, Interim Pareto Optimality, Social Security, Risk Sharing

An adverse selection model of optimal unemployment insurance

We derive the shape of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) contracts when agents can exert search effort but face different search costs and have private information about their type. We derive a recursive solution of our dynamic adverse selection problem with repeated moral hazard. Conditions under which the UI agency should always offer separating contracts are identified. We show that the good searcher receives an information rent and that the bad searcher receives the minimal entitlement. From a methodological point of view, we achieve a precise characterization of the sets of jointly feasible entitlements. This allows us to map our analytical results one-toone to a numerical algorithm. According to our results the contract for the good searcher has a decreasing benefit profile, as the one he would be offered in a pure moral hazard environment. In contrast, the contract of the bad searcher is distorted by an adverse selection effect, so that it tends to have an upward-sloping benefit profile. We provide a comparative static analysis of changes in various parameters of our model. --Unemployment Insurance,Adverse Selection,Moral Hazard

Welfare Analysis in a Schumpeterian Growth Model with Capital

In this note we compare the laissez-faire steady-state solution in the Howitt and Aghion (1998) model to the social optimum. The analysis offers several new insights in comparison to the welfare analysis in Aghion and Howitt (1992). We find various new distortions between private and optimal solution. First, a monopoly distortion effect generates too little capital accumulation in the private solution because households' gross return per unit of capital will be lower than in the social optimum due to monopoly power. Second, a cost-benefit gap effect leads to excessive research in the private solution because the planner is interested in the average technology whereas the private researcher is interested in the leading-edge technology. Third, we decompose the well-known intertemporal spillover effect into three subeffects and clarify why the planner does not consider other factors than the interest rate to discount gains from innovation.Endogenous Growth Model

The Zilcha criteria for dynamic inefficiency reconsidered

We reconsider necessary and sufficient conditions for dynamic inefficiency given in Zilcha (J Econ Theory 52:364-379, 1990, J Econ Theory 55:1-16, 1991) and a critique by Rangazas and Russell (2005). First, we show that the characterization given in Zilcha (1990) for nonstationary economies is correct and correct Zilcha's proof. Second, using this insight, we complement Rangazas and Russell's (Econ Theory 26:701-716, 2005) discussion of the counterexamples to Zilcha (J Econ Theory 55:1-16, 1991). Third, we discuss consequences of our results for applied tests of (in-)efficiency based on the Zilcha criteri

The (possible) effect of plain packaging on the smoking prevalence of minors in Australia: a trend analysis

A key stated objective of the Australian Plain Packaging Act 2011 is to influence smoking prevalence, in particular of minors. We use the Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) data set on minors, (that is, Australians aged 14 to 17 years) over the time period January 2001 to December 2013 to analyze whether there is evidence that this goal has been achieved. We carry out a statistical trend analysis to study the (possible) effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence of minors in Australia. More specifically, we fit a linear time trend that explains well the fact that observed smoking prevalence has declined steadily over the last 13 years. Two informative analyses help to draw conclusions on the (actual) effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence of Australian minors. First, we look at the year of data before plain packaging was introduced, which happened in December 2012. Second, we compute confidence intervals around the estimated treatment effects (that is, around the deviations from the fitted trend line) from 12/2012 on. Both analyses fail to find any evidence for an actual plain packaging effect on Australians aged 14 to 17 years. Several reasonable variations to our methodology are discussed. All of these would only result in findings even more indicative of an absence of any plain packaging effect

Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates

It is becoming increasingly popular in applications of synthetic control methods to include the entire pre-treatment path of the outcome variable as economic predictors. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that using all outcome lags as separate predictors renders all other covariates irrelevant. This finding holds irrespective of how important these covariates are for accurately predicting post-treatment values of the outcome, potentially threatening the estimator's unbiasedness. We show that estimation results and corresponding policy conclusions can change considerably when the usage of outcome lags as predictors is restricted, resulting in other covariates obtaining positive weights

Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates

It is becoming increasingly popular in applications of synthetic control methods to include the entire pre-treatment path of the outcome variable as economic predictors. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that using all outcome lags as separate predictors renders all other covariates irrelevant. This finding holds irrespective of how important these covariates are for accurately predicting post-treatment values of the outcome, potentially threatening the estimator's unbiasedness. We show that estimation results and corresponding policy conclusions can change considerably when the usage of outcome lags as predictors is restricted, resulting in other covariates obtaining positive weights