A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing three aspects of a GCM's ability to reconstruct the historical record for global surface temperature: (1) how well the GCMs track observed temperature; (2) are the residuals from GCM simulations random (white noise) or are they systematic (red noise or a stochastic trend); (3) what is the explanatory power of the GCMs compared to a simple alternative time series model, which assumes that temperature is a linear function of radiative forcing. The results indicate that three of the eight experiments considered fail to reconstruct temperature accurately; the GCM errors are either red noise processes or contain a systematic error, and the radiative forcing variable used to simulate the GCM's have considerable explanatory power relative to GCM simulations of global temperature. The GFDL model is superior to the other models considered. Three out of four Hadley Centre experiments also pass all the tests but show a poorer goodness of fit. The Max Planck model appears to perform poorly relative to the other two models. It does appear that there is a trade-off between the greater spatial detail and number of variables provided by the GCMs and more accurate predictions generated by simple time series models. This is similar to the debate in economics regarding the forecasting accuracy of large macro-economic models versus simple time series models.

Fourier Series Formalization in ACL2(r)

We formalize some basic properties of Fourier series in the logic of ACL2(r), which is a variant of ACL2 that supports reasoning about the real and complex numbers by way of non-standard analysis. More specifically, we extend a framework for formally evaluating definite integrals of real-valued, continuous functions using the Second Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. Our extended framework is also applied to functions containing free arguments. Using this framework, we are able to prove the orthogonality relationships between trigonometric functions, which are the essential properties in Fourier series analysis. The sum rule for definite integrals of indexed sums is also formalized by applying the extended framework along with the First Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and the sum rule for differentiation. The Fourier coefficient formulas of periodic functions are then formalized from the orthogonality relations and the sum rule for integration. Consequently, the uniqueness of Fourier sums is a straightforward corollary. We also present our formalization of the sum rule for definite integrals of infinite series in ACL2(r). Part of this task is to prove the Dini Uniform Convergence Theorem and the continuity of a limit function under certain conditions. A key technique in our proofs of these theorems is to apply the overspill principle from non-standard analysis.Comment: In Proceedings ACL2 2015, arXiv:1509.0552

Full-size solar dynamic heat receiver thermal-vacuum tests

The testing of a full-size, 120 kW, solar dynamic heat receiver utilizing high-temperature thermal energy storage is described. The purpose of the test program was to quantify receiver thermodynamic performance, operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber with liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate to partly simulate a low-Earth-orbit environment. The cavity of the receiver was heated by an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones to allow axially and circumferentially varied flux distributions. A closed-Brayton cycle engine simulator conditioned a helium-xenon gas mixture to specific interface conditions to simulate the various operational modes of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. Inlet gas temperature, pressure, and flow rate were independently varied. A total of 58 simulated orbital cycles, each 94 minutes in duration, was completed during the test conduct period

Ground test program for a full-size solar dynamic heat receiver

Test hardware, facilities, and procedures were developed to conduct ground testing of a full size, solar dynamic heat receiver in a partially simulated, low Earth orbit environment. The heat receiver was designed to supply 102 kW of thermal energy to a helium and xenon gas mixture continuously over a 94 minute orbit, including up to 36 minutes of eclipse. The purpose of the test program was to quantify the receiver thermodynamic performance, its operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber using liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate. Special test equipment were designed to provide the required ranges in interface boundary conditions that typify those expected or required for operation as part of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. The support hardware includes an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones and a closed Brayton cycle engine simulator to circulate and condition the helium xenon gas mixture. The test article, test support hardware, facilities, and instrumentation developed to conduct the ground test program are all described

Assessing the factors behind oil price changes

The rapid rise in the price of crude oil between 2004 and the summer of 2006 are the subject of debate. This paper investigates the factors that might have contributed to the oil price increase in addition to demand and supply for crude oil, by expanding a model for crude oil prices to include refinery utilization rates, a non-linear effect of OPEC capacity utilization, and conditions in futures markets as explanatory variables. Together, these factors allow the model to perform well relative to forecasts implied by the far month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and are able to account for much of the rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. JEL Classification: C53, Q41Oil prices, OPEC, Refinery industry

In planta localisation patterns of MADS domain proteins during floral development in Arabidopsis thaliana

Background: MADS domain transcription factors play important roles in various developmental processes in flowering plants. Members of this family play a prominent role in the transition to flowering and the specification of floral organ identity. Several studies reported mRNA expression patterns of the genes encoding these MADS domain proteins, however, these studies do not provide the necessary information on the temporal and spatial localisation of the proteins. We have made GREEN FLUORESCENT PROTEIN (GFP) translational fusions with the four MADS domain proteins SEPALLATA3, AGAMOUS, FRUITFULL and APETALA1 from the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana and analysed the protein localisation patterns in living plant tissues by confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM). Results: We unravelled the protein localisation patterns of the four MADS domain proteins at a cellular and subcellular level in inflorescence and floral meristems, during development of the early flower bud stages, and during further differentiation of the floral organs. The protein localisation patterns revealed a few deviations from known mRNA expression patterns, suggesting a non-cell autonomous action of these factors or alternative control mechanisms. In addition, we observed a change in the subcellular localisation of SEPALLATA3 from a predominantly nuclear localisation to a more cytoplasmic localisation, occurring specifically during petal and stamen development. Furthermore, we show that the down-regulation of the homeodomain transcription factor WUSCHEL in ovular tissues is preceded by the occurrence of both AGAMOUS and SEPALLATA3 proteins, supporting the hypothesis that both proteins together suppress WUSCHEL expression in the ovule. Conclusion: This approach provides a highly detailed in situ map of MADS domain protein presence during early and later stages of floral development. The subcellular localisation of the transcription factors in the cytoplasm, as observed at certain stages during development, points to mechanisms other than transcriptional control. Together this information is essential to understand the role of these proteins in the regulatory processes that drive floral development and leads to new hypotheses

Is there a global warming signal in hemispheric temperature series?

Global and hemispheric temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, solar irradiance, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols all have increased during the last one hundred and fifty years. Classical linear regression techniques will indicate a positive relationship among such series whether or not such a relation exists. Such standard techniques cannot, therefore, show whether observed temperature increases are the result of anthropogenic climate change. However, recent developments in econometrics allow for the analysis of relationships between statistically nonstationary data. We apply some of these recently developed tests in order to uncover the presence of stochastic trends in global climate change variables. These tests indicate that the greenhouse gases are characterized by I(2) stochastic trends while they fail to find evidence of an I(2) stochastic trend in hemispheric temperature series. This would mean that there is no simple long-run equilibrium relationship between radiative forcing and temperature. We then use a multivariate structural time series model to decompose Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures into stochastic trends and autoregressive noise processes. This method does not suffer from some of the disadvantages of the standard tests. The results show that there are two independent stochastic trends. The first is I(2) and is shared by the Northern and Southern Hemisphere temperatures. It may be related to the to the radiative forcing variables and represent a global warming signal. The second trend is I(1) and is only present in Northern Hemisphere temperatures. This trend seems closely related to the radiative forcing due to tropospheric sulfates