Two stochastic models useful in petroleum exploration

A model of the petroleum exploration process that tests empirically the hypothesis that at an early stage in the exploration of a basin, the process behaves like sampling without replacement is proposed along with a model of the spatial distribution of petroleum reserviors that conforms to observed facts. In developing the model of discovery, the following topics are discussed: probabilitistic proportionality, likelihood function, and maximum likelihood estimation. In addition, the spatial model is described, which is defined as a stochastic process generating values of a sequence or random variables in a way that simulates the frequency distribution of areal extent, the geographic location, and shape of oil deposit

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program

Recurrent microblazar activity in Cygnus X-1?

Recurrent flaring events at X- and soft gamma-ray energies have been recently reported for the galactic black hole candidate Cygnus X-1. The observed fluxes during these transient outbursts are far higher than what is observed in ``normal'' episodes. Here we suggest that the origin of this radiation is non-thermal and produced by inverse Compton interactions between relativistic electrons in the jet and external photon fields, with a dominant contribution from the companion star field. The recurrent and relatively rapid variability could be explained by the precession of the jet, which results in a variable Doppler amplification.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics Letter

Eyelid development, fusion and subsequent reopening in the mouse

The process of eyelid development was studied in the mouse. The critical events occur between about 15.5 d postcoitum (p.c.) and 12 d after birth, and were studied by conventional histology and by scanning electron microscopy. At about 15.5 d p.c. the cornea of the eye is clearly visible with the primitive eyelids being represented by protruding ridges of epithelium at its periphery. Over the next 24 h, eyelid development proceeds to the stage when the cornea is completely covered by the fused eyelids. Periderm cells stream in to fill the gap between the developing eyelids. Their proliferative activity is such that they produce a cellular excrescence on the outer surface of the line of fusion of the eyelids. This excrescence had almost disappeared by about 17.5 d p.c. Keratinisation is first evident at this stage on the surface of the eyelids and passes continuously from one eyelid to the other. Evidence of epidermal differentiation is more clearly seen in the newborn, where a distinctive stratum granulosum now occupies about one third of its entire thickness. Within the subjacent dermis, hair follicles are differentiating. By about 5 d after birth, a thick layer of keratin extends without interruption across the junctional region. While a noticeable surface indentation overlies the latter, a similar depression is only seen on the conjunctival surface by about 10 d after birth. Keratinisation is also observed to extend in from the epidermal surface to involve the entire region between the 2 eyelids at about this time.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS

Ultracold neutron depolarization in magnetic bottles

We analyze the depolarization of ultracold neutrons confined in a magnetic field configuration similar to those used in existing or proposed magneto-gravitational storage experiments aiming at a precise measurement of the neutron lifetime. We use an extension of the semi-classical Majorana approach as well as an approximate quantum mechanical analysis, both pioneered by Walstrom et al. [Nucl. Instr. Meth. Phys. Res. A 599, 82 (2009)]. In contrast with this previous work we do not restrict the analysis to purely vertical modes of neutron motion. The lateral motion is shown to cause the predominant depolarization loss in a magnetic storage trap. The system studied also allowed us to estimate the depolarization loss suffered by ultracold neutrons totally reflected on a non-magnetic mirror immersed in a magnetic field. This problem is of preeminent importance in polarized neutron decay studies such as the measurement of the asymmetry parameter A using ultracold neutrons, and it may limit the efficiency of ultracold neutron polarizers based on passage through a high magnetic field.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

Spin flip loss in magnetic storage of ultracold neutrons

We analyze the depolarization of ultracold neutrons confined in a magnetic field configuration similar to those used in existing or proposed magneto-gravitational storage experiments aiming at a precise measurement of the neutron lifetime. We use an approximate quantum mechanical analysis such as pioneered by Walstrom \emph{et al} [Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. A 599, 82 (2009)]. Our analysis is not restricted to purely vertical modes of neutron motion. The lateral motion is shown to cause the predominant depolarization loss in a magnetic storage trap.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, for Proceedings of Neutron Lifetime Worksho

Formation of massive clouds and dwarf galaxies during tidal encounters

Gerola et al. (1983) propose that isolated dwarf galaxies can form during galaxy interactions. As evidence of this process, Mirabel et al. (1991) find 10(exp 9) solar mass clouds and star formation complexes at the outer ends of the tidal arms in the Antennae and Superantennae galaxies. We describe observations of HI clouds with mass greater than 10(exp 8) solar mass in the interacting galaxy pair IC 2163/NGC 2207. This pair is important because we believe it represents an early stage in the formation of giant clouds during an encounter. We use a gravitational instability model to explain why the observed clouds are so massive and discuss a two-dimensional N-body simulation of an encounter that produces giant clouds

Evaluation of structural analysis methods for life prediction

The utility of advanced constitutive models and structural analysis methods are evaluated for predicting the cyclic life of an air-cooled turbine blade for a gas turbine aircraft engine. Structural analysis methods of various levels of sophistication were exercised to obtain the cyclic stress-strain response at the critical airfoil location. Calculated strain ranges and mean stresses from the stress-strain cycles were used to predict crack initiation lives by using the total strain version of the strain range partitioning life prediction method. The major results are given and discussed