A Conceptual Model for Adoption and Diffusion Process of A New Product

In the past several years, researchers have started to notice successful products whose sales patterns show rapidly declining diffusion patterns. These products include certain movies, computer software, TV game software, music CDs, etc. (e.g., Windows95 (up grade version), Final Fantasy, Terminator 2; Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996, Yamada et al. 1997, Moe and Fader 1998). These declining diffusion patterns have been rather neglected in the field of marketing (Bass 1969) because they were regarded as being peculiar to unsuccessful products, even though before Bass (1969), Fourt and Woodlock (1960) predicted first purchases of grocery products by an exponential model and in theory Lekvall and Wahlbin (1973) raised the possibility of various diffusion patterns from a bell-shaped one (logistic model) to a rapidly declining one (modified exponential model) using a mixed model similar to the Bass diffusion model. Also after Bass (1969), Gatignon and Robertson (1985) discussed the same possibility with 29 propositions. Generally speaking, however, there were no such studies that include rapidly declining diffusion patterns until recently except for the above studies (e.g., Sawhney and Eliashberg 1996; Yamada et al. 1997; Moe and Fader 1998). However, the relative importance of the entertainment industry or contents industry and IT-related industry has become greater due to the growth of the "networked" society. We believe that it is time to take a closer look at these products showing rapidly declining diffusion patterns from product classification and diffusion theory points of view. Establishing a conceptual model of adoption and diffusion process of a new product, we proposed the third "high involvement" adoption model. We call such a product as an eagerly wanted product and define it as anything that can be offered to a market to satisfy an eager want or need. Then we establish operational hypotheses to test the conceptual hypothesis that an eagerly wanted product should take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern from the beginning. We tested the following operational hypotheses on sales patterns of 254 new popular music CDs including albums and singles sold in one of the national chains of convenience stores in Japan. Common practice of music CD consumers in Japan is that they first rent single CDs and then buy albums. H1: A popular music album CD is an eagerly wanted product, that is, its diffusion pattern is rapidly declining. H2: The fraction of rapidly declining diffusion patterns for album CDs is greater than that for single CDs. H3: Sales pattern of a new singer's debut single CD does not take a rapidly declining diffusion pattern. H4: The sales pattern of a debut single of a new group or a singer produced through a well-designed process is a rapidly declining one. We also tested sales patterns of new products of beer and low malt liquor as additional evidence to H2 and H3, because new beer products may be anticipated through promotional efforts but may not be awaited as eagerly as CD albums. We obtained favorable results on all four hypotheses. As an implication of this study, a set of strategies for product development and introduction for an eagerly wanted product is proposed: (1) One should let consumers be involved from the development stage (the outset); for example (a) the ASAYAN project of TV Tokyo (see Section 4.2); (b) the use of famous artists, movie stars, and directors; (c) creating a series etc. (2) Before the introduction of a new product, its promotion and publicity should be done as intensively and widely as possible in the target market. Use media mix, etc. (3) The initial price should be set at the most reasonable level possible or free if possible. (4) To obtain a large potential market quickly, make as many business alliances as possible.Innovation diffusion process, Product classification, Diffusion pattern classification, Popular music CDs,

A Case of Acute Eosinophilic Pneumonia Associated with Heated Rubber Fume Exposure

ABSTRACTBackgroundWe report a rare case of acute eosinophilic pneumonia (AEP) associated with heated rubber fume exposure.MethodsA 31-year-old Ethiopian man, working at a rubber plant, was admitted to our hospital because of refractory dyspnea and fever. Computed tomography of the chest showed bilateral interstitial shadows and pleural effusion. We suspected AEP and performed fiberoptic bronchoscopy.ResultsThe eosinophil fraction was elevated at 59% in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). From the history of inhalation of heated rubber at the working place and hypereosinophilic counts in the BALF, he was given a diagnosis of AEP associated with heated rubber fume exposure. His symptoms and chest radiographic findings were drastically improved by corticosteroid therapy.ConclusionsHeated rubber fume can be a causative substance for AEP. In similar situations, physicians should consider AEP and order various examinations for confirmation

Synthesis of 1,3-Substituted 4-(2-Furyl)-2-azetidinones

The reaction of azidoketene (1) and haloketenes (2-4) with Schiff bases such as N-furfurylideneamines (5-9) gave the [2 + 2] cycloadducts, 1,3-substituted 4-(2-furyl)-2-azetidinones (10-18)

芳香族炭化水素結晶の高励起状態 イオン化過程と緩和過程

学習院大学Gakushuin Universit

Mixbiotic society measures: Assessment of community well-going as living system

Social isolation is caused by the impoverishment of community (atomism) and fragmentation is caused by the enlargement of in-group (mobism), both of which can be viewed as social problems related to communication. To solve these problems, the philosophical world has proposed the concept of "mixbiotic society," in which individuals with freedom and diverse values mix and mingle to recognize their respective "fundamental incapability" each other and sublimate into solidarity. Based on this concept, this study proposes new mixbiotic society measures to evaluate dynamic communication patterns with reference to classification in cellular automata and particle reaction diffusion that simulate living phenomena. Specifically, the hypothesis of measures corresponding to the four classes was formulated, and the hypothesis was validated by simulating the generation and disappearance of communication. As a result, considering communication patterns as multidimensional vectors, it found that the mean of Euclidean distance for "mobism," the variance of the relative change in distance for "atomism," the composite measure that multiplies the mean and variance of cosine similarity for "mixism," which corresponds to the well-going of mixbiotic society, and the almost zero measures for "nihilism," are suitable. Then, evaluating seven real-society datasets using these measures, we showed that the mixism measure is useful for assessing the livingness of communication, and that it is possible to typify communities based on plural measures. The measures established in this study are superior to conventional analysis in that they can evaluate dynamic patterns, they are simple to calculate, and their meanings are easy to interpret. As a future development, the mixbiotic society measures will be used in the fields of digital democracy and platform cooperativism toward a desirable society.Comment: 52 pages, 10 figure

Enhancement of protein thermostability by three consecutive mutations using loop-walking method and machine learning

We developed a method to improve protein thermostability, "loop-walking method". Three consecutive positions in 12 loops of Burkholderia cepacia lipase were subjected to random mutagenesis to make 12 libraries. Screening allowed us to identify L7 as a hot-spot loop having an impact on thermostability, and the P233G/L234E/V235M mutant was found from 214 variants in the L7 library. Although a more excellent mutant might be discovered by screening all the 8000 P233X/L234X/V235X mutants, it was difficult to assay all of them. We therefore employed machine learning. Using thermostability data of the 214 mutants, a computational discrimination model was constructed to predict thermostability potentials. Among 7786 combinations ranked in silico, 20 promising candidates were selected and assayed. The P233D/L234P/V235S mutant retained 66% activity after heat treatment at 60 degrees C for 30 min, which was higher than those of the wild-type enzyme (5%) and the P233G/L234E/V235M mutant (35%)

Synthesis of 1,3-Substituted 4-(2-Furyl)-2-azetidinones

The reaction of azidoketene (1) and haloketenes (2-4) with Schiff bases such as N-furfurylideneamines (5-9) gave the [2 + 2] cycloadducts, 1,3-substituted 4-(2-furyl)-2-azetidinones (10-18)