Integrated Modelling Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Decision Support

As argued in Chapter 1, modern management of environmental resources defines problems from a holistic and integrated perspective, thereby imposing strong requirements on Environmental Decision Support Systems (EDSSs) and Integrated Assessment Tools (IATs). These systems and tools tend to be increasingly complex in terms of software architecture and computational power in order to cope with the type of problems they must solve. For instance, the discipline of Integrated Assessment (IA) needs tools that arc able to span a wide range of disciplines, from socio-economics to ecology to hydrology. Such tools must support a wide range of methodologies and techniques like agent-based modeling, Bayesian decision networks, optimization, multicriteria analyses and visualization tools, to name a few

High APACHE II score and long length of bowel resection impair the outcomes in patients with necrotic bowel induced hepatic portal venous gas

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatic portal venous gas (HPVG) is a rare but potentially lethal condition, especially when it results from intestinal ischemia. Since the literatures regarding the prognostic factors of HPVG are still scarce, we aimed to investigate the risk factor of perioperative mortality in this study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed data for patients with intestinal ischemia induced HPVG by chart review in our hospital between 2000 and 2007. Factors associated with perioperative mortality were specifically analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 22 consecutive patients receiving definite bowel resection. 13 cases (59.1%) died after surgical intervention. When analyzing the mortality in patients after bowel resections, high Acute Physiology And Chronic health Evaluation (APACHE) II score (<it>p < 0.01</it>) and longer length of bowel resection (<it>p </it>= 0.047) were significantly associated with mortality in univariate analyses. The complication rate was 66.7% in alive patients after definite bowel resection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Bowel resection was the only potential life-saving therapy for patients with mesenteric ischemia induced HPVG. High APACHE II score and severity of underlying necrotic bowel determined the results in patients after bowel resection.</p

Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology functional impairment among people with severe and enduring mental disorder in rural Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

Purpose: Evidence regarding functional impairment in people with severe mental disorders (SMD) is sparse in low and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with functional impairment in people with enduring SMD in a rural African setting. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the baseline of a health service intervention trial. A total of 324 participants were recruited from an existing communityascertained cohort of people with SMD (n= 218), and attendees at the Butajira General Hospital psychiatric clinic (n= 106). Inclusion criteria defined people with SMD who had ongoing need for care: those who were on psychotropic medication, currently symptomatic or had a relapse in the preceding two years. The World Health Organization Disability Assessment schedule (WHODAS-2.0) and the Butajira Functioning Scale (BFS), were used to assess functional impairment. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were fitted to investigate the association between demographic, socio-economic and clinical characteristics, and functional impairment. Results: Increasing age, being unmarried, rural residence, poorer socio-economic status, symptom severity, continuous course of illness, medication side effects and internalized stigma were associated with functional impairment across self reported and caregiver responses for both the WHODAS and the BFS. Diagnosis per se was not associated consistently with functional impairment. Conclusion: To optimize functioning in people with chronic SMD in this setting, services need to target residual symptoms, poverty, medication side effects and internalized stigma. Testing the impact of community interventions to promote recovery will be useful. Advocacy for more tolerable treatment options is warranted

Local Increase of Arginase Activity in Lesions of Patients with Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Ethiopia

The leishmaniases are a complex of diseases caused by Leishmania parasites. Currently, the diseases affect an estimated 12 million people in 88 countries, and approximately 350 million more people are at risk. The leishmaniases belong to the most neglected tropical diseases, affecting the poorest populations, for whom access to diagnosis and effective treatment are often not available. Leishmania parasites infect cells of the immune system called macrophages, which have the capacity to eliminate the intracellular parasites when they receive the appropriate signals from other cells of the immune system. In nonhealing persistent leishmaniasis, lymphocytes are unable to transmit the signals to macrophages required to kill the intracellular parasites. The local upregulation of the enzyme arginase has been shown to impair lymphocyte effector functions at the site of pathology. In this study, we tested the activity of this enzyme in skin lesions of patients presenting with localized cutaneous leishmaniasis. Our results show that arginase is highly upregulated in these lesions. This increase in arginase activity coincides with lower expression of a signalling molecule in lymphocytes, which is essential for efficient activation of these cells. These results suggest that increased arginase expression in the localized cutaneous lesions might contribute to persistent disease in patients presenting with cutaneous leishmaniasis

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold &gt;75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold &lt;0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold &lt;1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH