Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in digestive oncology trials: which candidates? A questionnaires survey among clinicians and methodologists

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard for the demonstration of a clinical benefit in cancer trials. Replacement of OS by a surrogate endpoint allows to reduce trial duration. To date, few surrogate endpoints have been validated in digestive oncology. The aim of this study was to draw up an ordered list of potential surrogate endpoints for OS in digestive cancer trials, by way of a survey among clinicians and methodologists. Secondary objective was to obtain their opinion on surrogacy and quality of life (QoL).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2007 and 2008, self administered sequential questionnaires were sent to a panel of French clinicians and methodologists involved in the conduct of cancer clinical trials. In the first questionnaire, panellists were asked to choose the most important characteristics defining a surrogate among six proposals, to give advantages and drawbacks of the surrogates, and to answer questions about their validation and use. Then they had to suggest potential surrogate endpoints for OS in each of the following tumour sites: oesophagus, stomach, liver, pancreas, biliary tract, lymphoma, colon, rectum, and anus. They finally gave their opinion on QoL as surrogate endpoint. In the second questionnaire, they had to classify the previously proposed candidate surrogates from the most (position #1) to the least relevant in their opinion.</p> <p>Frequency at which the endpoints were chosen as first, second or third most relevant surrogates was calculated and served as final ranking.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Response rate was 30% (24/80) in the first round and 20% (16/80) in the second one. Participants highlighted key points concerning surrogacy. In particular, they reminded that a surrogate endpoint is expected to predict clinical benefit in a well-defined therapeutic situation. Half of them thought it was not relevant to study QoL as surrogate for OS.</p> <p>DFS, in the neoadjuvant settings or early stages, and PFS, in the non operable or metastatic settings, were ranked first, with a frequency of more than 69% in 20 out of 22 settings. PFS was proposed in association with QoL in metastatic primary liver and stomach cancers (both 81%). This composite endpoint was ranked second in metastatic oesophageal (69%), colorectal (56%) and anal (56%) cancers, whereas QoL alone was also suggested in most metastatic situations.</p> <p>Other endpoints frequently suggested were R0 resection in the neoadjuvant settings (oesophagus (69%), stomach (56%), pancreas (75%) and biliary tract (63%)) and response. An unexpected endpoint was metastatic PFS in non operable oesophageal (31%) and pancreatic (44%) cancers. Quality and results of surgical procedures like sphincter preservation were also cited as eligible surrogate endpoints in rectal (19%) and anal (50% in case of localized disease) cancers. Except for alpha-FP kinetic in hepatocellular carcinoma (13%) and CA19-9 decline (6%) in pancreas, few endpoints based on biological or tumour markers were proposed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The overall results should help prioritise the endpoints to be statistically evaluated as surrogate for OS, so that trialists and clinicians can rely on endpoints that ensure relevant clinical benefit to the patient.</p

Tissue factor expression as a possible determinant of thromboembolism in ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer, and clear cell carcinoma in particular, reportedly increases the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, the mechanisms remain unclear. Tissue factor (TF) supposedly represents a major factor in the procoagulant activities of cancer cells. The present study examined the involvement of TF expression in VTE for patients with ovarian cancer. Subjects comprised 32 consecutive patients (mean age 49.8 years) with histologically confirmed ovarian cancer. Presence of VTE was examined using a combination of clinical features, D-dimer levels and venous ultrasonography. Immunohistochemical analysis was used to evaluate TF expression into 4 degrees. Venous thromboembolism was identified in 10 of the 32 patients (31%), including five of the 11 patients with clear cell carcinoma. Tissue factor expression was detected in cancer tissues from 24 patients and displayed significant correlations with VTE development (P=0.0003), D-dimer concentration (P=0.003) and clear cell carcinoma (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis identified TF expression as an independent predictive factor of VTE development (P<0.05). Tissue factor (TF) expression is a possible determinant of VTE development in ovarian cancer. In particular, clear cell carcinoma may produce excessive levels of TF and is more likely to develop VTE

A sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension: based on 25 648 individual patient data from six randomized controlled trials.

To construct a sudden death risk score specifically for hypertension (HYSUD) patients with or without cardiovascular history. Data were collected from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments with 8044 women and 17 604 men differing in age ranges and blood pressure eligibility criteria. In total, 345 sudden deaths (1.35%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 5.16 years. Risk factors of sudden death were examined using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusted on trials. The model was transformed to an integer system, with points added for each factor according to its association with sudden death risk. Antihypertensive treatment was not associated with a reduction of the sudden death risk and had no interaction with other factors, allowing model development on both treatment and placebo groups. A risk score of sudden death in 5 years was built with seven significant risk factors: age, sex, SBP, serum total cholesterol, cigarette smoking, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction. In terms of discrimination performance, HYSUD model was adequate with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 77.74% (confidence interval 95%, 74.13-81.35) for the derivation set, of 77.46% (74.09-80.83) for the validation set, and of 79.17% (75.94-82.40) for the whole population. Our work provides a simple risk-scoring system for sudden death prediction in hypertension, using individual data from six randomized controlled trials of antihypertensive treatments. HYSUD score could help assessing a hypertensive individual's risk of sudden death and optimizing preventive therapeutic strategies for these patients