Harold Jeffreys's Theory of Probability Revisited

Published exactly seventy years ago, Jeffreys's Theory of Probability (1939) has had a unique impact on the Bayesian community and is now considered to be one of the main classics in Bayesian Statistics as well as the initiator of the objective Bayes school. In particular, its advances on the derivation of noninformative priors as well as on the scaling of Bayes factors have had a lasting impact on the field. However, the book reflects the characteristics of the time, especially in terms of mathematical rigor. In this paper we point out the fundamental aspects of this reference work, especially the thorough coverage of testing problems and the construction of both estimation and testing noninformative priors based on functional divergences. Our major aim here is to help modern readers in navigating in this difficult text and in concentrating on passages that are still relevant today.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:1001.2967], [arXiv:1001.2968], [arXiv:1001.2970], [arXiv:1001.2975], [arXiv:1001.2985], [arXiv:1001.3073]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0909.1008]. Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS284 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Quadricuspid Aortic Valve Defined by Echocardiography and Cardiac Computed Tomography

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Heart Rate Recovery Assessed by Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: Relationship with Prognosis

© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Background: The use of exercise testing has expanded in recent decades and there is a wealth of information examining the prognostic significance of exercise variables, such as peak oxygen consumption or ventilatory measures whilst exercising. However, a paucity of research has investigated the use of recovery-derived parameters after exercise cessation. Heart rate recovery (HRR) has been considered a measure of the function of the autonomic nervous system and its dysfunction is associated with cardiovascular risk. Objectives: We aim to provide an overview of the literature surrounding HRR and its prognostic significance in patients with cardiovascular disease undertaking an exercise test. Data Sources: In December 2020, searches of PubMed, Scopus, and ScienceDirect were performed using key search terms and Boolean operators. Study Selection: Articles were manually screened and selected as per the inclusion criteria. Results: Nineteen articles met inclusion criteria and were reviewed. Disagreement exists in methodologies used for measuring and assessing HRR. However, HRR provides prognostic mortality information for use in clinical practice. Conclusions: HRR is a simple, non-invasive measure which independently predicts mortality in patients with heart failure and coronary artery disease; HRR should be routinely incorporated into clinical exercise testing.Peer reviewe

Detection of Northern Hemisphere Transient Baroclinic Eddies in REMS Pressure Data at Gale Crater Mars

Wintertime transient baroclinic eddies in the northern midlatitudes of Mars were identified in Viking Lander 2 (VL2, 48.3N, 134.0E) surface pressure data back in the early 1980s. Here we report the results of an analysis of REMS surface pressure data acquired by the Curiosity Rover in Gale Crater (4.5S, 137.4E) that suggests the meridional scale of these eddies is so large that the disturbances in the surface pressure fields they create extend across the equator and into the southern hemisphere. A power spectrum analysis of the seasonally detrended REMS pressure data from Ls=240-280 shows dominant periods of ~ 6 sols and ~2.2 sols (though with greatly reduced power) which are close the dominant periods of the transient eddies observed by VL2 at this season. Analysis of the surface pressure fields from the Ames Mars GCM for the same season also shows dominant periods at the grid points closest to VL2 and Gale Crater similar to those observed. In the model, the disturbances responsible for these oscillations are eastward traveling baroclinic eddies whose amplitudes are greatest at northern mid latitudes at this season, but whose meridional extent does indeed extend into the low latitudes of the southern hemisphere. REMS appears to be seeing the signature of these eddies, not only for this season but for the early fall and late winter seasons as well. While orbital images of the so called flushing storms, which more closely correspond to the shorter period waves, show dust-lifting frontal systems that cross the equator, REMS data - even though acquired at a longitude of comparatively weak storm activity - provide the first in-situ evidence that northern hemisphere transient eddies can be detected at the surface in low latitudes of the southern hemisphere

Assimilation of Mars Global Surveyor atmospheric temperature data into a general circulation model

We examined the observed temperature data from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) between heliocentric longitude L_s = 141° and 146° (∼10 Martian days in northern summer) during the mapping phase, then compared them with the simulated results using the NASA/Ames Mars general circulation model. Both show a strong polar vortex at the winter pole, higher equatorial temperatures near the ground and larger tropospheric lapse rates during daytime than at night. However, the simulation is colder than the observation at the bottom and top of the atmosphere and warmer in the middle. The highest wave activities are found in the polar front in both the simulations and the observations, but it is at a much higher altitude in the former. Experiments show that larger dust opacity improves the temperature field in the lower atmospheric levels. Using a steady state Kalman filter, we attempted to obtain a model state that is consistent with the observations. The assimilation did achieve better agreement with the observations overall, especially over the north pole. However, it is hard to make any further improvement. Dust opacity is the key factor in determining the temperature field; correcting temperature alone improves the spatial and temporal variations, it degrades the mean state in the south pole. Assimilation cannot improve the simulation further, unless more realistic dust opacity and its vertical profile are considered

Temporal matching of occurrence localities and forest cover data helps improve range estimates and predict climate change vulnerabilities

Improved quantification of species\u27 ranges is needed to provide more accurate estimates of extinction risks for conservation planning. Highland tropical biodiversity may be particularly vulnerable to the anthropogenic changes in land cover and climate and is subject to overestimation of geographic range size in IUCN assessments. Here, we demonstrate a novel and practical approach for quantifying inferred range reductions based upon temporal matching of recent species occurrence localities and vegetation data. As an illustration pertinent to montane forest-associated species with limited distribution data, we use Gymnuromys roberti, an endemic Malagasy rodent with a Least Concern conservation status. We estimated climatic suitability and climate change vulnerability using species distribution modeling (SDM). We then determined deforestation tolerance thresholds for the species by temporally matching recent occurrence localities with percent forest cover values from MODIS forest cover layers. Finally, we applied these thresholds in postprocessing SDM-based range estimates. These estimates demonstrate that the lack of sufficient forest cover substantially reduces the species\u27 current estimated range compared with the IUCN range map. Projections to 2050 suggest that there will be a loss of climatic suitability over three quarters of the currently suitable habitat along with increased fragmentation, highlighting the need to include climate change vulnerability assessments as an integral part of conservation planning. Broader application of SDMs could assist practitioners at various stages of conservation planning, stressing the need for improved accessibility of methodologically complex SDM approaches

Biotic predictors with phenological information improve range estimates for migrating monarch butterflies in Mexico

Although long-standing theory suggests that biotic variables are only relevant at local scales for explaining the patterns of species' distributions, recent studies have demonstrated improvements to species distribution models (SDMs) by incorporating predictor variables informed by biotic interactions. However, some key methodological questions remain, such as which kinds of interactions are permitted to include in these models, how to incorporate the effects of multiple interacting species, and how to account for interactions that may have a temporal dependence. We addressed these questions in an effort to model the distribution of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus during its fall migration (September-November) through Mexico, a region with new monitoring data and uncertain range limits even for this well-studied insect. We estimated species richness of selected nectar plants (Asclepias spp.) and roosting trees (various highland species) for use as biotic variables in our models. To account for flowering phenology, we additionally estimated nectar plant richness of flowering species per month. We evaluated three types of models: climatic variables only (abiotic), plant richness estimates only (biotic) and combined (abiotic and biotic). We selected models with AICc and additionally determined if they performed better than random on spatially withheld data. We found that the combined models accounting for phenology performed best for all three months, and better than random for discriminatory ability but not omission rate. These combined models also produced the most ecologically realistic spatial patterns, but the modeled response for nectar plant richness matched ecological predictions for November only. These results represent the first model-based monarch distributional estimates for the Mexican migration route and should provide foundations for future conservation work. More generally, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of using SDM-derived richness estimates and phenological information for biotic factors affecting species distributions.journal articl

Improving area of occupancy estimates for parapatric species using distribution models and support vector machines

As geographic range estimates for the IUCN Red List guide conservation actions, accuracy and ecological realism are crucial. IUCN’s extent of occurrence (EOO) is the general region including the species’ range, while area of occupancy (AOO) is the subset of EOO occupied by the species. Data‐poor species with incomplete sampling present particular difficulties, but species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict suitable areas. Nevertheless, SDMs typically employ abiotic variables (i.e., climate) and do not explicitly account for biotic interactions that can impose range constraints. We sought to improve range estimates for data‐poor, parapatric species by masking out areas under inferred competitive exclusion. We did so for two South American spiny pocket mice: Heteromys australis (Least Concern) and Heteromys teleus (Vulnerable due to especially poor sampling), whose ranges appear restricted by competition. For both species, we estimated EOO using SDMs and AOO with four approaches: occupied grid cells, abiotic SDM prediction, and this prediction masked by approximations of the areas occupied by each species’ congener. We made the masks using support vector machines (SVMs) fit with two data types: occurrence coordinates alone; and coordinates along with SDM predictions of suitability. Given the uncertainty in calculating AOO for low‐data species, we made estimates for the lower and upper bounds for AOO, but only make recommendations for H. teleus as its full known range was considered. The SVM approaches (especially the second one) had lower classification error and made more ecologically realistic delineations of the contact zone. For H. teleus, the lower AOO bound (a strongly biased underestimate) corresponded to Endangered (occupied grid cells), while the upper bounds (other approaches) led to Near Threatened. As we currently lack data to determine the species’ true occupancy within the post‐processed SDM prediction, we recommend that an updated listing for H. teleus include these bounds for AOO. This study advances methods for estimating the upper bound of AOO and highlights the need for better ways to produce unbiased estimates of lower bounds. More generally, the SVM approaches for post‐processing SDM predictions hold promise for improving range estimates for other uses in biogeography and conservation

Secondary somatic mutations restoring RAD51C and RAD51D associated with acquired resistance to the PARP inhibitor rucaparib in high-grade ovarian carcinoma

High-grade epithelial ovarian carcinomas (OC) containing mutated BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) homologous recombination (HR) genes are sensitive to platinum-based chemotherapy and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (PARPi), while restoration of HR function due to secondary mutations in BRCA1/2 has been recognized as an important resistance mechanism. We sequenced core HR pathway genes in 12 pairs of pre-treatment and post-progression tumor biopsy samples collected from patients in ARIEL2 Part 1, a phase 2 study of the PARPi rucaparib as treatment for platinum-sensitive, relapsed OC. In six of 12 pre-treatment biopsies, a truncation mutation in BRCA1, RAD51C or RAD51D was identified. In five of six paired post-progression biopsies, one or more secondary mutations restored the open reading frame. Four distinct secondary mutations and spatial heterogeneity were observed for RAD51C. In vitro complementation assays and a patient-derived xenograft (PDX), as well as predictive molecular modeling, confirmed that resistance to rucaparib was associated with secondary mutations