Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Critical behavior of the two-dimensional N-component Landau-Ginzburg Hamiltonian with cubic anisotropy

We study the two-dimensional N-component Landau-Ginzburg Hamiltonian with cubic anisotropy. We compute and analyze the fixed-dimension perturbative expansion of the renormalization-group functions to four loops. The relations of these models with N-color Ashkin-Teller models, discrete cubic models, planar model with fourth order anisotropy, and structural phase transition in adsorbed monolayers are discussed. Our results for N=2 (XY model with cubic anisotropy) are compatible with the existence of a line of fixed points joining the Ising and the O(2) fixed points. Along this line the exponent $\eta$ has the constant value 1/4, while the exponent $\nu$ runs in a continuous and monotonic way from 1 to $\infty$ (from Ising to O(2)). For N\geq 3 we find a cubic fixed point in the region $u, v \geq 0$, which is marginally stable or unstable according to the sign of the perturbation. For the physical relevant case of N=3 we find the exponents $\eta=0.17(8)$ and $\nu=1.3(3)$ at the cubic transition.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figure

Ischemia modified albumin is a sensitive marker of myocardial ischemia after percutaneous coronary intervention

Background— Ischemia modified albumin (IMA; Ischemia Technologies, Inc) blood levels rise in patients who develop ischemia during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). It is not known whether IMA elevations correlate with increases in other markers of oxidative stress, ie, 8-iso prostaglandin F2-A (iP). Methods and Results— We compared IMA versus iP plasma levels in 19 patients (mean age 62.8±11.9 years) undergoing PCI and 11 patients (mean age 64±13.6 years) undergoing diagnostic angiography (controls). In the PCI patients, blood samples for IMA and iP were taken from the guide catheter before PCI and after balloon inflations, and from the femoral sheath 30 minutes after PCI. IMA was measured by the albumin cobalt binding (ACB) test and plasma iP by enzyme immunoassay. During PCI, all 19 patients had chest pain and 18 had transient ischemic ST segment changes. IMA was elevated from baseline in 18 of the 19 patients after PCI. Median IMA levels were higher after PCI (101.4 U/mL, 95%CI 82 to 116) compared with baseline (72.8 U/mL, CI 55 to 93; P<0.0001). Levels remained elevated at 30 minutes (87.9 U/mL, CI 78 to 99; P<0.0001) and returned to baseline at 12 hours (70.3 U/mL, CI 65 to 87; P=0.65). iP levels were raised after PCI in 9 of the 19 patients. However, median iP levels were not significantly different immediately (P=0.6) or 30 minutes after PCI (P=0.1). In the control group, IMA and iP levels remained unchanged before and after angiography (P=0.2 and 0.16, respectively). Conclusions— IMA is a more consistent marker of ischemia than iP in patients who develop chest pain and ST segment changes during PCI

Role of "Ischemia Modified Albumin", a new biochemical marker of myocardial ischaemia, in the early diagnosis of acute coronary syndromes

Background: Diagnosis of cardiac ischaemia in patients attending emergency departments (ED) with symptoms of acute coronary syndromes is often difficult. Cardiac troponin (cTn) is sensitive and specific for the detection of myocardial damage but may not rise during reversible myocardial ischaemia. Ischemia Modified Albumin (IMA) has recently been shown to be a sensitive and early biochemical marker of ischaemia. Methods and Results: This study evaluated IMA in conjunction with ECG and cTn in 208 patients presenting to the ED within three hours of acute chest pain. At presentation, a 12-lead ECG was recorded and blood taken for IMA and cardiac troponin T (cTnT). Patients underwent standardised triage, diagnostic procedures, and treatment. Results of IMA, ECG, and cTnT, alone and in combination, were correlated with final diagnoses of non-ischaemic chest pain, unstable angina, ST segment elevation, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. In the whole patient group, sensitivity of IMA at presentation for an ischaemic origin of chest pain was 82%, compared with 45% of ECG and 20% of cTnT. IMA used together with cTnT or ECG, had a sensitivity of 90% and 92%, respectively. All three tests combined identified 95% of patients whose chest pain was attributable to ischaemic heart disease. In patients with unstable angina, sensitivity of IMA used alone was equivalent to that of IMA and ECG combined. Conclusions: IMA is highly sensitive for the diagnosis of myocardial ischaemia in patients presenting with symptoms of acute chest pain

Pain threshold and tolerance in women with syndrome X and women with stable angina pectoris

A recent report showed that during Holter monitoring of patients with syndrome X (typical anginal pain, positive exercise test response [at least 0.1 mV of ST-segment depression], no evidence of coronary spasm and angiographically normal coronary arteries), 50% of episodes of ischemic ST-segment depression were painful. This proportion is considerably higher than that in patients with chronic stable angina, which is about 30%. A significantly lower threshold and tolerance to painful stimuli was seen in a group of patients with chronic stable angina in whom 50% of episodes were painful compared with a group in whom only 5% of episodes were silent. Hence, patients with syndrome X may have enhanced sensitivity to painful stimuli. To investigate whether this difference was due to a lower threshold for painful stimuli in general, 12 patients with syndrome X and 10 (age- and sex-matched) with chronic stable angina were studied using the same battery of painful stimuli. Patients with syndrome X had a significantly lower threshold and tolerance for forearm ischemia (-36%, p less than 0.05, and -40%, p less than 0.001) and electrical skin stimulation (-37%, p less than 0.01, and -35%, p less than 0.001); the cold pressor test did not show significant differences (-7%, p = 0.391, and -1%, p = 0.818). Thus, patients with syndrome X in this study had significantly lower threshold and tolerance values for forearm ischemia and for electrical skin stimulation. These differences in sensitivity to pain may partly explain a higher incidence of painful ischemic episodes detected by ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring during unrestricted daily lif

Neurocognitive function and cerebral emboli: randomised study of on-pump versus off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery

Background Neurocognitive impairment can be a debilitating complication after coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). Cardiopulmonary bypass, in particular, cerebral emboli, has been implicated. We compared neurocognitive function and cerebral emboli in patients undergoing on-pump and off-pump CABG. Methods 212 patients admitted for CABG were randomly assigned to on-pump (n = 104) or off-pump (n = 108) surgery. Embolic signals were detected with bilateral transcranial Doppler ultrasonography of the middle cerebral artery. Neurocognitive tests were administered preoperatively, on discharge from hospital, at 6 weeks, and at 6 months after surgery. Composite neurocognitive scores were derived using principal component analysis and were compared between the two groups, using analysis of covariance to adjust for baseline values. Results At discharge from hospital, the adjusted composite neurocognitive score was 0.25 standard deviations greater in the off-pump group compared with the on-pump group (95% confidence interval: 0.05 to 0.45; p = 0.01). There was no significant difference at 6 weeks (0.09 standard deviations, 95% confidence interval: −0.11 to +0.30; p = 0.4) and 6 months (−0.002 standard deviations, 95% confidence interval: −0.23 to +0.23; p = 1.0). Median number of embolic signals was 1,605 (751 to 2,473) during on-pump and 9 (4 to 27) in off-pump CABG (p < 0.001). Age, length of education, and on-pump status were independent predictors of the predischarge neurocognitive score (p = 0.02, 0.03, and 0.006, respectively). Conclusions Cerebral emboli are more prevalent during on-pump CABG. At discharge from hospital, neurocognitive function is better after off-pump surgery, possibly as a result of the lower embolic load. However, the difference in neurocognitive function does not persist at 6 weeks and 6 months

Effects of balloon occlusion during percutaneous coronary intervention on circulating Ischemia Modified Albumin and transmyocardial lactate extraction

Studies have shown that human albumin undergoes a considerable reduction in its capacity to bind exogenous cobalt (Ischemia Modified Albumin (IMA); Ischemia Technologies, Denver, Colorado, USA), as measured by the albumin cobalt binding test, when exposed to an ischaemic insult. We have recently observed that plasma IMA levels increase soon after transient balloon inflation during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), even in the absence of considerable elevations of cardiac troponin.1 Higher IMA levels have also been reported in patients with acute coronary syndrome attending the emergency department with recent‐onset chest pain.2 At present however, no data exist regarding the relationship between IMA and an accepted gold standard for myocardial ischaemia—that is, myocardial lactate extraction.3 We therefore sought to assess whether increased IMA plasma levels documented in patients after PCI correlate with an increased production of lactate by the myocardium

Ischemia-modified albumin predicts short-term outcome and 1-year mortality in patients attending the emergency department for acute ischemic chest pain

The primary study aim was to determine whether ischemia-modified albumin (IMA) predicts adverse outcome in patients attending the emergency department (ED) with acute chest pain. Ischemia-modified albumin is a sensitive marker of myocardial ischemia. However, little is known about its ability to predict outcome in patients presenting to the ED with acute chest pain. We prospectively studied 207 patients who presented to the ED with acute chest pain suggestive of acute coronary syndrome within 3 h of the onset of symptoms. Blood samples for IMA assessment were obtained on admission. We evaluated a 30-day combined end point (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, recurrent angina) and 1-year all-cause mortality. A total of 31 (15%) patients experienced the 30-day composite end point and 16 patients (7.7%) died during the 1-year follow-up. Short-term combined end point (9.6% vs 20.4%, P = 0.03) and 1-year mortality rate (11.7% vs 3.8%, log rank 3.978, P = 0.046) were significantly higher in patients with IMA levels >93.3 U/ml compared to patients with lower IMA. On multivariate analysis, IMA remained an independent predictor of both 30-day combined end point (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.07, P = 0.01) and 1-year mortality (hazard ratio 1.038, 95% CI 1.006–1.070, P = 0.018). Ischemia-modified albumin is an independent predictor of short-and long-term adverse outcomes in patients presenting to the ED with typical acute chest pain