A Framework to Estimate the Potential and Costs for the Control of Fine Particulate Emissions in Europe

This paper presents a methodology for estimating primary PM emissions in Europe and the costs involved to reduce these emissions from the various sources in the European countries. The framework developed is compatible with existing approaches to estimate emissions and costs for SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC in the RAINS model. Emissions of PM are released from a large variety of sources with significant technical and economic differences. The emission characteristic of the sources is also strongly influenced by country-specific conditions. The method applied considers the crucial parameters and allows sectoral and regional variation. The emissions of particulate matter (PM) in the RAINS model are calculated for three different size classes (i) fine fraction (PM2.5), (ii) coarse fraction (PM10 - PM2.5) and (iii) large particles (PM_>10 mu m). A methodology has been developed to estimate emission control costs of standard technologies under the specific conditions characteristic for the various European countries. Based on the assumption of the general availability of control technologies with equal technical properties and costs, a number of country-specific circumstances (level of technological advancement, installation size distribution, labor costs, etc.) are used to estimate the costs for the actual operation of pollution control equipment. Based on the developed methodology, a first estimate of the PM emissions in Europe was derived for the years 1990, 1995 and 2010. This estimate must be considered as preliminary, since many of the emission factors need revision and update with additional information. The projections for the year 2010 assume full implementation of the current legislation on emission controls, e.g., the EURO-IV emission standards resulting from the Auto Oil process for mobile sources, and regulations relating to the large combustion plant directive of the European Union. Major reductions in PM emissions occurred between 1990 and 1995, mainly because of the economic restructuring in Eastern Europe where many old coal power stations were retired. Between 1990 and 1995, TSP emissions declined by 41 percent; for 2010 a decline of 58 percent is projected. Emission reductions are most efficient for larger particles; for 2010, PM10 is calculated to decline by 56 percent, and PM2.5 by 48 percent. Consequently, fine fraction (PM2.5) will be relatively more important in the future (38 percent of TSP in 2010) compared to 31 percent of TSP in 1990. In 1990, combustion in energy industries, small non-industrial combustion sources, production processes and road transport contributed about 20 percent each to total TSP emissions in the EU-15. In the non-EU countries, small sources and power plants were responsible for more than 30 percent each, while road transport contributed only three percent of TSP. In those countries, small sources (domestic coal and wood combustion) are expected to increase their share to 45 percent in 2010, while in the EU-15 mobile sources will become the most important source category for TSP emissions (45 percent). For PM2.5, mobile sources were the largest contributor in 1990 in the EU-15 countries (31 percent). This share is expected to decline slightly by 2010 (28 percent) due to the strict regulations that were recently introduced. In the non-EU countries, industrial production processes were the largest source of PM2.5 emissions (36 percent), while in 2010 small combustion sources in the domestic sector will dominate (38 percent). The present implementation (version 1.03) of the RAINS PM module on the Internet (www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains/PM/pm-home.html) provides free access to the input data and results to facilitate interaction with national experts

Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects

The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to investigate changes in the aerosol burden and aerosol radiative effects in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios were applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the results were compared against the reference year 2005. Two of the scenarios are based on current legislation reductions: one shows the maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical measures, and the other is targeted to short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). We have analyzed the results in terms of global means and additionally focused on eight subregions. Based on our results, aerosol burdens show an overall decreasing trend as they basically follow the changes in primary and precursor emissions. However, in some locations, such as India, the burdens could increase significantly. The declining emissions have an impact on the clear-sky direct aerosol effect (DRE), i.e. the cooling effect. The DRE could decrease globally 0.06-0.4 W m(-2) by 2030 with some regional increases, for example, over India (up to 0.84 W m(-2)). The global changes in the DRE depend on the scenario and are smallest in the targeted SLCF simulation. The aerosol indirect radiative effect could decline 0.25-0.82 W m(-2) by 2030. This decrease takes place mostly over the oceans, whereas the DRE changes are greatest over the continents. Our results show that targeted emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due to the radiative effects associated with aerosol-cloud interactions.Peer reviewe