Trends of staple food and input prices: Global and regional overview, 2007-2010

This policy brief is the fifth in a series of quarterly briefs that provide updates on the food price situation in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region. The briefs are a follow up of an earlier study on the impact of rising food prices in the ESA region that was carried out by the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa (ASARECA) in collaboration with the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Eastern and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA) and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Alliance. The first update focused on the food price trends in ESA and their relationship with global food prices. The second update discussed policy responses to the food price crisis in ESA region. The third update focused on the relationships between the prices of staple foods and those of non-tradable foods (orphan crops), while the fourth brief discussed the linkages between the prices of agricultural inputs and output. This brief looks at the trend of the staple food prices, both global and national, over the period 2007-2010 and presents the price trends of inputs (fertilizer and fuel) over the same period. It also discusses the status of food prices before and after the food price crisis of 2008. Have the food prices continued to soar after the 2008 food price crisis? What is the effect of the drought in Russia and Thailand and the flooding in Pakistan on global and regional food prices

Valuation of Cow Attributes by Conjoint Analysis: A Case Study in Western Kenya

The objective of the study was to determine the value that different households attach to attributes of the dairy cow. The cow attributes were, milk yield, disease resistance, feed requirement. The valuation was done in order to quantify the economic trade-offs made during adoption of dairy technologies, assess resource availability, households perceptions on dairy technologies and their farming priorities. This was necessary to understand the adoption patterns of dairy technologies observed and suggest intervention. The Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS), Marginal Willingness to Pay (mWTP), and Marginal Willingness to Accept (mWTA) that were used were determined from conjoint (CJ) analysis using data from a survey of 630 households in Western Kenya. The household characteristics that influenced valuation were off-farm income, precipitation over evapo-transpiration (PPE), ethnicity, cultural values, education, and extension. In reference to the typical households, household characteristics that showed a higher mWTP for a cow with low feed requirement implied either scarcity of feed, high opportunity cost of using land for fodder or lack of information on feed resources. The latter indicates inefficiency in resource use. A higher mWTP for a cow with high milk yield gave an indication of the households' priorities. A mWTA payment for a cow with high milk yield in the face of potential markets showed different farming priorities and lack of information. A mWTA payment for a cow with low disease resistance shows risk aversion and limited information on disease control.cow attributes, conjoint, marginal willingness to accept, marginal willingness to pay, Livestock Production/Industries,

Valuation of cow attributes by conjoint analysis: A case study of Western Kenya

Better dairy production could reduce poverty and improve nutrition in western Kenya, but the requisite technologies have not been widely adopted. This study collected dairy cow attributes from 630 households to evaluate what factors influence smallholder farmers to adopt technologies. Conjoint analysis was used to compute the marginal rate of substitution between attributes, marginal willingness to pay, and marginal willingness to accept. Two ethnic groups had the highest willingness to pay for cattle with a high milk yield and low feed requirement. The highest marginal rate of substitution for cattle with a high disease resistance and a low feed requirement was from households with off-farm income, from areas with a good agro-climate, and from areas where cattle had cultural functions. The results suggest that farmers are more likely to choose cross-bred than high grade cows, and that extension services have little effect on their adoption of dairy technology. Kenya’s breed policy and infrastructure may need to be revised to reflect farmers’ needs.Conjoint analysis, valuation of cow attributes, dairy production, Kenya, Livestock Production/Industries,

Analysis of Factors Influencing Adoption of Dairy Technologies In Western Kenya

Indicators of poverty in western Kenya show high poverty levels. The area has low dairy development yet the potential for dairy development is quite high. Dairy farming has the potential to reduce poverty by increasing incomes and reducing unemployment. This paper reports factor interrelationships in dairy adoption with a view to understanding factors that influence adoption. The binary probit model was used to analyse data from 1575 households. Contrary to findings from similar studies elsewhere, some factors had a negative association with adoption, thus unfolding a unique adoption process. The association between the factor interactive affects and technology adoption highlighted the importance of exploring factor interrelationships. The widely held conclusion that smallholder households are resource constrained in technology adoption did not hold in this study. The source of labour supply dictated choice of variables to be used as proxies for labour availability. The exploration of endogenous relationships in the various factors dictated the use of the single probit model. The spatial factors used were highly significant in adoption, and the predicted probabilities from these factors gave a true spatial prediction. This confirmed reliability of the probit estimates. An understanding of factor interrelationships in adoption gives adoption studies high specificity while making conclusions and recommendations, thus necessitating case studies in adoption.Adoption, factor interrelationship, spatial factors, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Food Prices: Eastern and Southern Africa Defy Global Trends

Global food prices started rising sharply in 2006 and reached record levels in the second quarter of 2008. Although domestic food prices in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) are not totally unrelated to world prices, a study by the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in East and Central Africa (ASARECA), the Regional Strategic and Knowledge Support System for Eastern and Central Africa (ReSAKSS-ECA), and the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Alliance shows that national and regional factors are very important in driving domestic food prices. While global food prices have exhibited declining trends since June 2008, several ESA countries have experienced increasing prices in 2008 and early 2009. The price surges appear to be further fuelled by some of the policy responses that countries have employed in their attempts to address the food price problem. This brief provides an update on food price trends in ESA. It starts by comparing the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) global food price index and food price indexes (FPI) in individual countries followed by an update on price trends for specifi c commodities. This information serves to remind policymakers that the easing global food prices do not present any immediate relief to the food crises facing their individual countries

Fodder legumes technology and farmer to farmer extension: a case of Desmodium and Calliandra in central Kenya

Adoption studies on fodders legume technologies have shown that spread of the technology is significantly enhanced by informal methods of dissemination especially farmer-to-farmer extension. It is not known which type of farmers are involved in this dissemination. The objective of this study was to identify farm and farmer characteristics that influence farmer-to farmer extension hence identify the type of farmers that can disseminate fodder legume technologies. A random sample of 130 farmers who had been given calliandra in central Kenya responded to a structured questionnaire. Information collected included farm and farmer characteristics and the number of farmers the original farmer had given Calliandra outside the original group. A tobit model was used to analyze the data to get the magnitude of the effects of factors affecting the probability and the intensity of giving out the fodder. Results showed that farmers with positions in farmer groups** , community responsibility**, larger amounts of desmodium on the their farms** , more years of the fodder on their farms***; low access to markets* and off farm income* , were positively involved in spread of the fodder legume. It was recommended that this type of farmers be targeted with support to increase spread of the technology

A Quantitative Assessment of the COMESA Customs Union

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of the formation of a COMESA customs union, specifically of having free trade among COMESA countries while imposing a common external tariff against imports from outside COMESA. The study uses an expanded version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database and capitalizes on the Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium (MIRAGE) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for analysis. Two different assumptions are made regarding the number of sensitive products excluded from the CET rates—2 percent or 5 percent. The simulation exercise involved four scenarios to compare the impacts of the customs union under two alternative specifications of sensitive products, and the impacts of three alternative membership assumptions on the COMESA region. The alternative COMESA customs union scenarios are designed at the detailed Harmonized System at the six digit level (HS6), combining information on the current applied protection from the 2004 MAcMap data base and the COMESA Tariff Nomenclature

Consumer awareness and attitudes toward GM foods in Kenya

A survey of 604 consumers was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, in November and December 2003, at three points of sale (supermarkets, kiosks, and posho mills) to determine consumer awareness and attitudes towards genetically modified (GM) foods. Above a third (38%) of the respondents were aware of GM crops, mostly from newspapers, television and radio. Others had learned about GM crops at school. Newspapers and television were more important to higher-income and more educated consumers. Consumers acknowledged the technology’s potential positive impacts, with more than 80% agreeing that it increases productivity. Sixty-eight percent said they would buy GM maize meal at the same price as their favorite brands, although many had concerns; half of the respondents feared that GM technology could lead to a loss of biodiversity and affect non-target insects; while more than one- third (37%) had concerns about the effects of GM food on human health. We conclude that GM technology has a role to play in food security in Kenya. However, consumers need more information about the technology, which can be provided through established sources of information. Finally, consumer attitudes should be studied regularly, and the survey population broadened to include rural consumers

Factors influencing farmer-to-farmer extension of forage legume technology

Forage legumes have been introduced to farmers in Central Kenya between 1980 and 2002 through various Institutional and Projects’ efforts. The adoption rate of these forages among farmers has been found to be rather low, with the NDDP reporting only 1.9 % of farms surveyed and an ICRAF report indicating that the technology was only reaching 1 % of smallholder farms. An evaluation of adoption of Calliandra and Desmodium was conducted to identify farm characteristics affecting the likelihood of sharing of Desmodium and Calliandra technologies as well as to characterise the spread or diffusion of the technology from the original contact groups and the effect of distance from those groups. Three groups of farmers were approached. A first generation who received planting material from the distributors, a second generation who received planting materials from the former, and a randomly selected group of farmers at various distances from the first contacts. Informal discussions were held with the farmers and formal questionnaires filled. Out of the 133 first generation farmers contacted 64.7% still had Desmodium and 89.5% still had Calliandra. More farms in the contact sub-locations had the plants than the sub-locations further away. The small sample size of those with the forages could not allow effect of distance to be worked out. Tobit estimates of effects of farmer attributes influencing sharing of planting materials shows that the status of the household head in the community positively affected the likelihood of giving out planting material. The technology has a rather slow spread as indicated by percentages of farms with the forages. For better adoption and spread proponents of the technology should have the technology introduced to farmers who have substantial positions in farmer groups or have been bestowed community responsibility