Modelling Decision Making under Uncertainty for Strategic Forecasting

In current market conditions, the key to productive economic activity is the ability to provide a high-quality forecast, even in situations of insufficient information. Strategic forecasting refers to this type of activity, errors in which the actions of any company can have a detrimental effect on the fundamental level. The justification and selection of specific management decisions can often be carried out in conditions of uncertainty due to the inability to clearly predict the values of the final results of these decisions. The decision-making system within the framework of the strategic forecasting task should help maintain the effectiveness of actions by simplifying the picture of the real world by modelling it. While allowing to reduce the influence of the subjectivity of the personality of the decision-maker on the decision-making process itself

Oligo- and Polymetastatic Progression in Lung Metastasis(es) Patients Is Associated with Specific MicroRNAs

Rationale: Strategies to stage and treat cancer rely on a presumption of either localized or widespread metastatic disease. An intermediate state of metastasis termed oligometastasis(es) characterized by limited progression has been proposed. Oligometastases are amenable to treatment by surgical resection or radiotherapy.Methods: We analyzed microRNA expression patterns from lung metastasis samples of patients with ≤5 initial metastases resected with curative intent.Results: Patients were stratified into subgroups based on their rate of metastatic progression. We prioritized microRNAs between patients with the highest and lowest rates of recurrence. We designated these as high rate of progression (HRP) and low rate of progression (LRP); the latter group included patients with no recurrences. The prioritized microRNAs distinguished HRP from LRP and were associated with rate of metastatic progression and survival in an independent validation dataset.Conclusion: Oligo- and poly- metastasis are distinct entities at the clinical and molecular level.</p

Detection of intervals / layers in sections of the wells with anomalous areas of drilling mud filtrate contamination according to the well logging (with negative test results of horizons)

The zone of infiltration of the drilling fluid filtrate into the reservoir rock creates significant difficulties for the study by logging methods and during further testing of the formation. Due to the penetration of filtrate, significant contamination of the near-wellbore zone occurs. The porosity and filtration characteristics of reservoir rocks are changing. There is a possibility of blockage by filtrate in the invaded zone of oil or gas flow from the formation to the well. As a result of the studies carried out using well logging data, it was found that the presence and distribution of a mud cake on the borehole wall opposite the reservoir is an important factor influencing the process of filtration of the drilling fluid into the layers. On the examples of the Yablunivske oil and gas and Kolomatske gas fields of the Dnieper-Donets basin, it is shown that the absence of a mud cake on the borehole walls leads to the formation of maximum, anomalous zones of filtrate invasion. The determining of the diameter of the invaded zone was carried out according to the data of electrical logging methods. In addition, the diameter of the invaded zone was calculated as a solution direct task equation for the case of direct filtration without blocking by the mud cake. Comparison of the results of determining the diameter of the invaded zone by two methods made it possible to draw certain conclusions. An important conclusion is that even partial absence of mud cake on the reservoir wall in the well leads to horizontal and vertical filtration of the drilling fluid from the well into the formation. As a result, the invaded zone may be so deep, that the gas flow rate is absent even at high values of porosity, permeability and gas saturatio

Quantitative method for determining the solution error of the inverse problem in the electrometry of oil and gas wells

Determining the quantitative degree of connection between logging error and the corresponding error of oil and gas wells electrometry inverse problem solving is considered. A quantitative method to determine the magnitude of the error of solving the inverse problem depending on the magnitude of the logging error for a given model of a single layer or section as a whole is described. Examples of determining the error of the inverse problem for real well materials, taking into account the actual measurement error, are given. A method for determining the characteristics of the spatial resolution of electrometry methods is described. Examples of its use for low-frequency induction logging equipment are given. The proposed methods allow to determine the areas of equivalent solutions and the areas of existence of stable / unstable solutions of the inverse electrometry problem

Політика управління освітньою діяльністю університету в умовах російсько-української війни

The purpose of the study is to identify the peculiarities of the activities of a higher education institution during a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the russian army. On the example of the Higher Educational Establishment of Ukoopspilka “Poltava University of Economics and Trade”, the paper considers ways to search for and identify internal capabilities of the educational institution that would allow compensation and overcoming the negative impact of the aggressive external environment on the educational process, creating synergy between teaching, student education and youth involvement in volunteer activities. The paper describes the existing practices of partnership support in terms of interest in the learning process through the continuation of international cooperation, the application of analytical approaches to solving problems in matters of financial instability, the continuation of scientific and stabilization of the educational component, and the identification of existing experience in educational work at the university through involving young people in various career guidance and student activities. An important issue in the paper is the question of the volunteer activities of the university, which has implemented several projects to support war refugees and internally displaced persons from the temporarily occupied territories and the zone of active hostilities. Achieving such goals is possible only through a deep understanding of and adherence to the mission of Poltava University of Economics and Trade, which is so deeply perceived by the entire team of its employees

Unique immunologic patterns in fibromyalgia

BACKGROUND: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a clinical syndrome characterized by chronic pain and allodynia. The diagnosis of FM has been one of exclusion as a test to confirm the diagnosis is lacking. Recent data highlight the role of the immune system in FM. Aberrant expressions of immune mediators, such as cytokines, have been linked to the pathogenesis and traits of FM. We therefore determined whether cytokine production by immune cells is altered in FM patients by comparing the cellular responses to mitogenic activators of stimulated blood mononuclear cells of a large number of patients with FM to those of healthy matched individuals. METHODS: Plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were collected from 110 patients with the clinical diagnosis of FM and 91 healthy donors. Parallel samples of PBMC were cultured overnight in medium alone or in the presence of mitogenic activators; PHA or PMA in combination with ionomycin. The cytokine concentrations of IFN-γ, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, MIP-1β , MCP-1, and MIP1-α in plasma as well as in cultured supernatants were determined using a multiplex immunoassay using bead array technology. RESULTS: Cytokine levels of stimulated PBMC cultures of healthy control subjects were significantly increased as compared to matched non-stimulated PBMC cultures. In contrast, the concentrations of most cytokines were lower in stimulated samples from patients with FM compared to controls. The decreases of cytokine concentrations in patients samples ranged from 1.5-fold for MIP-1β to 10.2-fold for IL-6 in PHA challenges. In PMA challenges, we observed 1.8 to 4-fold decreases in the concentrations of cytokines in patient samples. CONCLUSION: The cytokine responses to mitogenic activators of PBMC isolated from patients with FM were significantly lower than those of healthy individuals, implying that cell-mediated immunity is impaired in FM patients. This novel cytokine assay reveals unique and valuable immunologic traits, which, when combined with clinical patterns, can offer a diagnostic methodology in FM