New Methods for Integrated Models of Animal Disease Control

Accurate assessments of the epidemiological and economic impacts of an animal disease require the incorporation of feedbacks between disease spread and production incentives. This paper motivates a new modeling framework that is sensitive to the dynamics of disease, production decisions and incentives, different livestock production systems, and their interaction through the use of an integrated system dynamics framework. Preliminary simulation results are provided to demonstrate proof-of-concept of such an approach, with additional discussion given on extensions and implications of integrated methods.Animal disease control, simulation modeling, system dynamics, Livestock Production/Industries,

A SPATIAL MODEL OF ANIMAL DISEASE CONTROL IN LIVESTOCK: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE IN THE SOUTHERN CONE

This paper presents a multi-market model of animal disease control that extends the current literature by accounting for spatial and inter-temporal relations in both epidemiological and economic variables. The model is applied to Foot and Mouth Disease control in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, but it is broadly generalizable.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. DURUM WHEAT AND PASTA MARKETS

A quarterly, partial-equilibrium vector-autoregression model of the U.S. durum wheat and pasta markets was estimated and simulated under three trade-barrier changes that are of potential relevance for the current round of WTO agricultural negotiations: a rise in the U.S. market-clearing durum wheat quantity from increased imports; a policy- or tariff- reduction-induced decline in U.S. durum wheat price; and a tariff-induced rise in U.S. pasta product prices. In response to each shock, an array of quarterly dynamic response characteristics are examined: response reaction times, direction and pattern of quarterly responses, response durations, response multipliers, and strength of durum/pasta market interrelationships.Industrial Organization,

Commodity-based Trade and Market Access for Developing Country Livestock Products: The Case of Beef Exports from Ethiopia

While Ethiopia is Africa’s largest livestock producer, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers and animal diseases have traditionally constrained market access. A system dynamics model examined the feasibility of a proposed SPS certification system under a number of scenarios. Model results indicate that the system may not be viable for beef exports to Middle Eastern markets. However, the binding constraint is high domestic input costs rather than the costs of SPS compliance. Sensitivity analyses reveal that while investments in feed efficiency and animal productivity would enhance Ethiopia’s export competitiveness, the competitive nature of international beef markets may still prevent market access.SPS, livestock, market access, system dynamics, Ethiopia, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Q10, Q13,

The Global Effort to Eradicate Rinderpest

During the past 70 years, concerted efforts by the national veterinary services of affected countries from Senegal to China and Russia to South Africa—aided by international organizations—have brought the once-dreaded rinderpest virus to the point of extinction. In the near future, we can expect to see a global declaration of freedom from rinderpest, the first time this has been achieved for a livestock disease. The devastation wrought by rinderpest stimulated the founding of veterinary schools in many countries, and provided the basis for the development of the veterinary profession. The legacy of control programs in the past 20 years includes vaccine innovations and the development of new epidemiological and surveillance tools that are based on participatory techniques. Additionally, the benefits derived from eradication are many, ranging from increased confidence in livestock-based agriculture to increased food security, protected rural livelihoods, technically more proficient veterinary services, an opening of trade into lucrative markets in the Middle East, and the safeguarding of Africa’s wildlife heritage from a serious threat to its dwindling populations. As for the financial benefits of rinderpest eradication, describing them is constrained because of a general lack of studies on the subject, and the fact that programs covering multiple issues often did not clearly discern the rinderpest problem. This analysis attempts to present lessons learned from the experience gained in eradicating rinderpest, and explores the socioeconomic gains made as a result