CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper

Long-term effects of drainage and hay-removal on nutrient dynamics and limitation in the Biebrza mires, Poland

To provide a reference for wetlands elsewhere we analysed soil nutrients and the vegetation of floodplains and fens in the relatively undisturbed Biebrza-valley, Poland. Additionally, by studying sites along a water-table gradient, and by comparing pairs of mown and unmown sites, we aimed with exploring long-term effects of drainage and annual hay-removal on nutrient availabilities and vegetation response. In undrained fens and floodplains, N mineralization went slowly (0-30kgNha−1year−1) but it increased strongly with decreasing water table (up to 120kgNha−1year−1). Soil N, P and K pools were small in the undisturbed mires. Drainage had caused a shift from fen to meadow species and the disappearance of bryophytes. Biomass of vascular plants increased with increasing N mineralization and soil P. Annual hay-removal tended to have reduced N mineralization and soil K pools, but it had increased soil P. Moreover, N concentrations in vascular plants were not affected, but P and K concentrations and therefore N:P and N:K ratios tended to be changed. Annual hay-removal had induced a shift from P to K limitation in the severely drained fen, and from P to N limitation in the floodplain. The low nutrient availabilities and productivity of the undisturbed Biebrza mires illustrate the vulnerability of such mires to eutrophication in Poland and elsewhere. In nutrient-enriched areas, hay removal may prevent productivity increase of the vegetation, but also may severely alter N:P:K stoichiometry, induce K-limitation at drained sites, and alter vegetation structure and compositio

Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland - Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km  ×  5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d

Nutrients in tropical and temperate rivers and floodplains – comparison of the Rivers Songkhram (Thailand) and Narew (Poland)

Ecological processes in floodplains may function differently across climate regions. We compared the river discharge, water chemistry, and nutrient budget and balance of floodplain vegetation in a temperate climate (River Narew, Poland) with those in a tropical climate (River Songkhram, Thailand). Both rivers show a discharge regime with a flood pulse, following snowmelt (Narew) or monsoon rainfall (Songkhram), with peak discharges roughly 25 times higher in the River Songkhram. Electrical Conductivity (EC) values of both rivers are generally comparable, while nutrient concentrations are somewhat higher in the temperate River Narew (with total phosphorus (TP) approximately 1.5 and total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) approximately 2.2 times higher than in Songkhram). A comparison of the nutrient budget of floodplain vegetation suggests that soil is the most important source of nutrients for most vegetation types, i.e., Narew sedge (N), Narew forest floor (N and P), Songkhram bamboo (N and P), and Songkhram grass (P). Additionally, floodwater is the main input source of P for the Narew sedge and a secondary input source for Songkhram grass. Vegetation close to the river tends to have higher productivity, emphasizing the nutrient-filtering function of floodplain vegetation. For both rivers, nutrient input into the floodplains by floodwater is higher than nutrient export from the floodplains, indicating that both floodplains have a nutrient sink function. These findings demonstrate that the floodwater pulse is a source of nutrient input for floodplain vegetation in both temperate and tropical climates, with the soil playing a vital role in the nutrient budgets and balance

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well

Spatial hydrological flow processes, water quality, sediment and vegetation community distributions in a natural floodplain fen – implication for the Flood Pulse Concept

We studied spatial patterns in inundation water quality, sediment and vegetation distribution in a floodplain fen in Poland to map interacting peatland hydrological processes. Using PCA and K-means cluster analysis, we identified four water types, related to river water inundation, discharge of clean and polluted groundwater, and precipitation and snowmelt dilution. Spatially, these hydrochemical water types are related to known water sources in the flood- plain and occupy distinctive zones. River water is found along the river, clean and polluted groundwater at the valley margins and groundwater diluted with precipitation and snowmelt water in the central part of the floodplain. This implies that, despite the floodplain being completely inundated, nutrient input from river flooding occurs only in a relatively narrow zone next to the river. Our findings question the relevance of the edge of inundation, as presented in the Flood Pulse Concept, as delineating the zone of input and turnover of nutrients. Secondly, we studied rich-fen and freshwater vegetation community distributions in relation to the presented inundation water quality types. We successfully determined inundation water quality preference for 14 out of 17 studied rich-fen and freshwater communities in the floodplain. Spatial patterns in preference show vegetation with attributed river water preference to occur close to the river channel, with increasing distance to the river followed by communities with no preference, diluted groundwater preference in the central part, and clean and polluted groundwater preference at the valley margins. In inundation water, nutrients are known to be transported mainly as attached to sediment, besides in dissolved state. This means that in the zone where sediment deposition occurs, nutrient input can be a relevant contribution to the nutrient input of the floodplain. We found a significant decrease in sediment-attached nutrient deposition with distance from the river. Sediment-attached nutrients correlated better to aboveground standing biomass than dissolved nutrients. These findings further reduce the spatial zone where significant nutrient input is influenced by transport from the river, compared to the zone influenced by dissolved nutrients. Our findings indicate the need for a revision of the Flood Pulse Concept for temperate river with multiple water sources, as peatland hydrological processes significantly influence spatial floodplain vegetation distribution