Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.

Background: The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings: Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance: This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools

Mixed Th1 and Th2 Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific CD4 T cell responses in patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis from Tanzania.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) and helminth infections elicit antagonistic immune effector functions and are co-endemic in several regions of the world. We therefore hypothesized that helminth infection may influence Mtb-specific T-cell immune responses. We evaluated the cytokine profile of Mtb-specific T cells in 72 individuals with pulmonary TB disease recruited from two Sub-Saharan regions with high and moderate helminth burden i.e. 55 from Tanzania (TZ) and 17 from South Africa (SA), respectively. We showed that Mtb-specific CD4 T-cell functional profile of TB patients from Tanzania are primarily composed of polyfunctional Th1 and Th2 cells, associated with increased expression of Gata-3 and reduced expression of T-bet in memory CD4 T cells. In contrast, the cytokine profile of Mtb-specific CD4 T cells of TB patients from SA was dominated by single IFN-γ and dual IFN-γ/TNF-α and associated with TB-induced systemic inflammation and elevated serum levels of type I IFNs. Of note, the proportion of patients with Mtb-specific CD8 T cells was significantly reduced in Mtb/helminth co-infected patients from TZ. It is likely that the underlying helminth infection and possibly genetic and other unknown environmental factors may have caused the induction of mixed Th1/Th2 Mtb-specific CD4 T cell responses in patients from TZ. Taken together, these results indicate that the generation of Mtb-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses may be substantially influenced by environmental factors in vivo. These observations may have major impact in the identification of immune biomarkers of disease status and correlates of protection