Main outcomes of the Phebus FPT1 uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the EU-MUSA project

The Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA) project was funded in HORIZON 2020 and is coordinated by CIEMAT (Spain). The project aims at consolidating a harmonized approach for the analysis of uncertainties and sensitivities associated with Severe Accidents (SAs) analysis, focusing on source term figures of merit. The Application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Methods against Integral Experiments (AUQMIE – Work Package 4 (WP4)), led by ENEA (Italy), was devoted to apply and test UQ methodologies adopting the internationally recognized PHEBUS FPT1 test. FPT1 was chosen to test UQ methodologies because, even though it is a simplified SA scenario, it was representative of the in-vessel phase of a severe accident initiated by a break in the cold leg of a PWR primary circuit. WP4 served as a platform to identify and discuss the issues encountered in the application of UQ methodol ogies to SA analyses (e.g. discuss the UQ methodology, perform the coupling between the SA codes and the UQ tools, define the results post-processing methods, etc.). The purpose of this paper is to describe the MUSA PHEBUS FPT1 uncertainty application exercise with the related specifications and the methodologies used by the partners to perform the UQ exercise. The main outcomes and lessons learned of the analysis are: scripting was in general needed for the SA code and uncertainty tool coupling and to have more flexibility; particular attention should be devoted to the proper choice of the input uncertain parameters; outlier values of figures of merit should be carefully analyzed; the computational time is a key element to perform UQ in SA; the large number of uncertain input parameters may complicate the interpretation of correlation or sensitivity analysis; there is the need for a statistically solid handling of failed calculations

Main outcomes of the Phebus FPT1 uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the EU-MUSA project

International audienceThe Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA) project was funded in HORIZON 2020 and is coordinated by CIEMAT (Spain). The project aims at consolidating a harmonized approach for the analysis of uncertainties and sensitivities associated with Severe Accidents (SAs) analysis, focusing on source term figures of merit. The Application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Methods against Integral Experiments (AUQMIE – Work Package 4 (WP4)), led by ENEA (Italy), was devoted to apply and test UQ methodologies adopting the internationally recognized PHEBUS FPT1 test. FPT1 was chosen to test UQ methodologies because, even though it is a simplified SA scenario, it was representative of the in-vessel phase of a severe accident initiated by a break in the cold leg of a PWR primary circuit. WP4 served as a platform to identify and discuss the issues encountered in the application of UQ methodologies to SA analyses (e.g. discuss the UQ methodology, perform the coupling between the SA codes and the UQ tools, define the results post-processing methods, etc.). The purpose of this paper is to describe the MUSA PHEBUS FPT1 uncertainty application exercise with the related specifications and the methodologies used by the partners to perform the UQ exercise. The main outcomes and lessons learned of the analysis are: scripting was in general needed for the SA code and uncertainty tool coupling and to have more flexibility; particular attentions hould be devoted to the proper choice of the input uncertain parameters; outlier values of figures of merit should be carefully analyzed; the computational time is a key element to perform UQ in SA; the large number of uncertain input parameters may complicate the interpretation of correlation or sensitivity analysis; there is the need for a statistically solid handling of failed calculations

First Outcomes from the PHEBUS FPT1 Uncertainty Application done in the EU-MUSA Project

The Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA) project, founded in HORIZON 2020 and coordinated by CIEMAT (Spain), aims to consolidate a harmonized approach for the analysis of uncertainties and sensitivities associated with Severe Accidents (SAs) by focusing on Source Term (ST) Figure of Merits (FOM). In this framework, among the 7 MUSA WPs the Application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Methods against Integral Experiments (AUQMIE – Work Package 4 (WP4)), led by ENEA (Italy), looked at applying and testing UQ methodologies, against the internationally recognized PHEBUS FPT1 test. Considering that FPT1 is a simplified but representative SA scenario, the main target of the WP4 is to train project partners to perform UQ for SA analyses. WP4 is also a collaborative platform for highlighting and discussing results and issues arising from the application of UQ methodologies, already used for design basis accidents, and in MUSA for SA analyses. As a consequence, WP4 application creates the technical background useful for the full plant and spent fuel pool applications planned along the MUSA project, and it also gives a first contribution for MUSA best practices and lessons learned. 16 partners from different world regions are involved in the WP4 activities. The purpose of this paper is to describe the MUSA PHEBUS FPT1 uncertainty application exercise, the methodologies used by the partners to perform the UQ exercise, and the first insights coming out from the calculation phase