THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS ON ACREAGE RESPONSE OVER TIME: THE CASE OF CORN PRODUCTION IN IOWA

Corn acreage response in Iowa is examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Separate estimates of the permanent portion of the parameter vector are obtained for each year over the period 1957-82. The estimated elasticities are grouped into “program” and “nonprogram” periods. The results indicate corn acreage response is more own-price elastics, and the elasticity is less variable under government acreage control programs than under a “nonprogram” regime. The assumption of parameter constancy is shown to be inappropriate for modeling Iowa corn acreage response over time.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS ON ACREAGE RESPONSE OVER TIME: THE CASE OF CORN PRODUCTION IN IOWA

Corn acreage response in Iowa is examined using a time-varying parameter regression model. Separate estimates of the permanent portion of the parameter vector are obtained for each year over the period 1957-82. The estimated elasticities are grouped into "program" and "nonprogram" periods. The results indicate corn acreage response is more own-price elastics, and the elasticity is less variable under government acreage control programs than under a "nonprogram" regime. The assumption of parameter constancy is shown to be inappropriate for modeling Iowa corn acreage response over time

ALTERNATIVE FORMS OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN SUPPLY ANALYSIS FOR U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGES

The consequences of frequently used price expectation models are analyzed by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn and soybean acreages to six alternative formulations. The trade-off between bias and variance associated with these forecasts is investigated. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysis

ALTERNATIVE PROCEDURES FOR THE FORMATION OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN SUPPLY RESPONSE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO U.S. CORN ACREAGE

This study analyzes the consequences of frequently used price expectation models by comparing the responsiveness of U.S. corn acreage to six alternative formulations. It analyzes the tradeoff between bias and variance associated with these forecasts. The results of this study have important implications for future research on supply analysi

THE RESPONSIVENESS OF U.S. CORN AND SOYBEAN ACREAGES TO CONDITIONAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE 1985 FARM BILL

Naïve and adaptive schemes have been used as proxies for price expectations in previous studies of supply response. Those studies contain mixed formulas of futures, support, and lagged prices as alternative formulations for price expectations. This study uses a conditional expected price which combines both market and support prices into one price expectations measure. It defines the total effect of available information on supply response. The results indicate the potential usefulness of formulating expected prices as conditional price expectations in supply response analysis, with support prices being the conditional set. Under the provisions of the 1985 Farm Bill, significant reductions in corn and soybean acreages are in prospect for 1987-90

Population Growth and Trends in Food Production and Consumption in the CWANA Region

Many of the financial and social challenges that face Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) can be addressed through more efficient and sustainable use of arable land and water resources. In recent years improvements in land and water use have come from an agricultural sector that is moving from state to market control, but without greater changes the region will continue to be constrained by environmental degradation, institutional inefficiencies, and persistently high population growth rates. This chapter presents a trend analysis of major cropping groups for the period 1961-2002 and summarizes ways to address the key problems of food security, poverty reduction, and conservation of natural resources throughout the CWANA region. The International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and its partners are presented as a regional knowledge portal through which many of these initiatives can occur.agricultural research priorities; integrated natural resource management; food security; policy intervention