Lessons learned from the Pefki solar village in Athens, nearly 20 years on

Solar Village 3 in Pefki, Athens, was part of an ambitious program, with active and passive solar systems providing space and water heating for 1750 inhabitants, designed in the early 80's, and inhabited from the late 80's. This paper focuses on passive solar systems applied to a number of the buildings. A survey highlighted the cases of trombe water benches and conservatories as the most frequently, poorly operated systems. Over time this led to a lack of belief by the occupants in the passive systems. Building simulation indicated a much higher cooling load than originally designed for, combined with recent warmer summers and poor maintenance and operation, have led to the present case that many homes have installed air conditioning. Plans for district heating will improve heating provision for residents and reduce CO2 emissions but a lack of a maintenance strategy for the passive systems will surely lead to their increased neglect

Robust and Adaptive Functional Logistic Regression

We introduce and study a family of robust estimators for the functional logistic regression model whose robustness automatically adapts to the data thereby leading to estimators with high efficiency in clean data and a high degree of resistance towards atypical observations. The estimators are based on the concept of density power divergence between densities and may be formed with any combination of lower rank approximations and penalties, as the need arises. For these estimators we prove uniform convergence and high rates of convergence with respect to the commonly used prediction error under fairly general assumptions. The highly competitive practical performance of our proposal is illustrated on a simulation study and a real data example which includes atypical observations

Asymptotics for M-type smoothing splines with non-smooth objective functions

M-type smoothing splines are a broad class of spline estimators that include the popular least-squares smoothing spline but also spline estimators that are less susceptible to outlying observations and model-misspecification. However, available asymptotic theory only covers smoothing spline estimators based on smooth objective functions and consequently leaves out frequently used resistant estimators such as quantile and Huber-type smoothing splines. We provide a general treatment in this paper and, assuming only the convexity of the objective function, show that the least-squares (super-)convergence rates can be extended to M-type estimators whose asymptotic properties have not been hitherto described. We further show that auxiliary scale estimates may be handled under significantly weaker assumptions than those found in the literature and we establish optimal rates of convergence for the derivatives, which have not been obtained outside the least-squares framework. A simulation study and a real-data example illustrate the competitive performance of non-smooth M-type splines in relation to the least-squares spline on regular data and their superior performance on data that contain anomalies

Robust Functional Regression with Discretely Sampled Predictors

The functional linear model is an important extension of the classical regression model allowing for scalar responses to be modeled as functions of stochastic processes. Yet, despite the usefulness and popularity of the functional linear model in recent years, most treatments, theoretical and practical alike, suffer either from (i) lack of resistance towards the many types of anomalies one may encounter with functional data or (ii) biases resulting from the use of discretely sampled functional data instead of completely observed data. To address these deficiencies, this paper introduces and studies the first class of robust functional regression estimators for partially observed functional data. The proposed broad class of estimators is based on thin-plate splines with a novel computationally efficient quadratic penalty, is easily implementable and enjoys good theoretical properties under weak assumptions. We show that, in the incomplete data setting, both the sample size and discretization error of the processes determine the asymptotic rate of convergence of functional regression estimators and the latter cannot be ignored. These theoretical properties remain valid even with multi-dimensional random fields acting as predictors and random smoothing parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed class of estimators in practice is demonstrated by means of a simulation study and a real-data example

M-type penalized splines with auxiliary scale estimation

Penalized spline smoothing is a popular and flexible method of obtaining estimates in nonparametric regression but the classical least-squares criterion is highly susceptible to model deviations and atypical observations. Penalized spline estimation with a resistant loss function is a natural remedy, yet to this day the asymptotic properties of M-type penalized spline estimators have not been studied. We show in this paper that M-type penalized spline estimators achieve the same rates of convergence as their least-squares counterparts, even with auxiliary scale estimation. We further find theoretical justification for the use of a small number of knots relative to the sample size. We illustrate the benefits of M-type penalized splines in a Monte-Carlo study and two real-data examples, which contain atypical observations

Robust functional regression based on principal components

Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of modern statistics and the functional linear model has become popular in recent years. However, most estimation methods for this model rely on generalized least squares procedures and therefore are sensitive to atypical observations. To remedy this, we propose a two-step estimation procedure that combines robust functional principal components and robust linear regression. Moreover, we propose a transformation that reduces the curvature of the estimators and can be advantageous in many settings. For these estimators we prove Fisher-consistency at elliptical distributions and consistency under mild regularity conditions. The influence function of the estimators is investigated as well. Simulation experiments show that the proposed estimators have reasonable efficiency, protect against outlying observations, produce smooth estimates and perform well in comparison to existing approaches.Comment: 33 pages, including the appendix and reference

The law of activity delays

Delays in activities completion drive human projects to schedule and cost overruns. It is believed activity delays are the consequence of multiple idiosyncrasies without specific patterns or rules. Here we show that is not the case. Using data for 180 construction project schedules, we demonstrate that activity delays satisfy a universal model that we call the law of activity delays. After we correct for delay risk factors, what remains follows a log-normal distribution.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

Robust and efficient estimation of nonparametric generalized linear models

Generalized linear models are flexible tools for the analysis of diverse datasets, but the classical formulation requires that the parametric component is correctly specified and the data contain no atypical observations. To address these shortcomings we introduce and study a family of nonparametric full rank and lower rank spline estimators that result from the minimization of a penalized power divergence. The proposed class of estimators is easily implementable, offers high protection against outlying observations and can be tuned for arbitrarily high efficiency in the case of clean data. We show that under weak assumptions these estimators converge at a fast rate and illustrate their highly competitive performance on a simulation study and two real-data examples