Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordComplex interactions manifest between modes of tropical climate variability across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans. For example, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extends its influence on modes of variability in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, which in turn feed back onto ENSO. Interactions between pairs of modes can alter their strength, periodicity, seasonality, and ultimately their predictability, yet little is known about the role that a third mode plays. Here we examine the interactions and relative influences between pairs of climate modes using ensembles of 100-year partially coupled experiments in an otherwise fully coupled general circulation model. In these experiments, the air–sea interaction over each tropical ocean basin, as well as pairs of ocean basins, is suppressed in turn. We find that Indian Ocean variability has a net damping effect on ENSO and Atlantic Ocean variability, and conversely they each promote Indian Ocean variability. The connection between the Pacific and the Atlantic is most clearly revealed in the absence of Indian Ocean variability. Our model runs suggest a weak damping influence by Atlantic variability on ENSO, and an enhancing influence by ENSO on Atlantic variability.This study was supported by the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. This research was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), which is supported by the Australian Government

On the choice of ensemble mean for estimating the forced signal in the presence of internal variability

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) through grants to L. M. F. (DE170100367) and to M. H. E. through the ARC Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science (CE110001028). J. B. K. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/N005783/1). B. A. S. was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048)

CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordClimate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ~12-15 °C. Other climate variables may be linked to global mean temperature, and so accurate representation of the baseline climate state is crucial for meaningful future climate projections. In CMIP5 baseline climate states, statistically significant intermodel correlations between Southern Ocean surface temperature, outgoing shortwave radiation, cloudiness, the position of the mid-latitude eddy-driven jet, and Antarctic sea ice area are found. The baseline temperature relationships extend to projected future changes in the same set of variables. The tendency for models with initially cooler Southern Ocean to exhibit more global warming, and vice versa for initially warmer models, is linked to baseline Southern Ocean climate system biases. Some of these intermodel correlations arise due to a ‘capacity for change’. For example, models with more sea ice initially have greater capacity to lose sea ice as the planet warms, whereas models with little sea ice initially are constrained in the amount they can lose. Similar constraints apply to Southern Ocean clouds, which are projected to reduce under radiative forcing, and the jet latitude, which is projected to migrate poleward. A first look at emerging data from CMIP6 reveals a shift of the relationship from the Southern Ocean towards the Antarctic region, possibly due to reductions in Southern Ocean biases, such westerly wind representation.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans ResearchAustralian Government National Environmental Science ProgramAustralian Research Council (ARC

Indo-pacific climate interactions in the absence of an Indonesian throughflow

The Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected by an oceanic passage called the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). In this setting, modes of climate variability over the two oceanic basins interact. El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events generate sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Indian Ocean that, in turn, influence ENSO evolution. This raises the question as to whether Indo-Pacific feedback interactions would still occur in a climate system without an Indonesian Throughflow. This issue is investigated here for the first time using a coupled climate model with a blocked Indonesian gateway and a series of partially decoupled experiments in which air- sea interactions over each ocean basin are in turn suppressed. Closing the Indonesian Throughflow significantly alters the mean climate state over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Pacific Ocean retains an ENSO-like variability, but it is shifted eastward. In contrast, the Indian Ocean dipole and the Indian Ocean basinwide mode both collapse into a single dominant and drastically transformed mode. While the relationship betweenENSO and the altered Indian Ocean mode is weaker than that when the ITF is open, the decoupled experiments reveal a damping effect exerted between the two modes. Despite the weaker Indian Ocean SSTAs and the increased distance between these and the core of ENSO SSTAs, the interbasin interactions remain. This suggests that the atmospheric bridge is a robust element of the Indo-Pacific climate system, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans even in the absence of an Indonesian Throughflow

Kondisi Self Disclosure Mahasiswa Bimbingan dan Konseling

<p>Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasikan kondisi <em>self disclosure</em> mahasiswa Bimbingan dan Konseling berdasarkan dimensi keluasan dan kedalaman. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian deskriptif<em> </em>dengan metode kuantitatif. Instrumen yang digunakan adalah Inventori Pengukuran <em>Self Disclosure</em> Mahasiswa (IPSDM), dengan Sampel sebanyak 85 orang mahasiswa menggunakan teknik <em>Simple Random Sampling</em>. Temuan penelitian mengungkapkan bahwa, 1) Sebanyak 55,29% mahasiswa Bimbingan dan Konseling memiliki kondisi keluasan<em> self disclosure</em> pada kategori tidak luas dan dilihat pada target <em>person </em> menunjukkan bahwa ibu merupakan target <em>person</em> pertama dan paling banyak dipilih responden penelitian (72,16%), 2) Sebanyak 38,82% mahasiswa Bimbingan dan Konseling memiliki kondisi kedalaman<em> self disclosure</em> pada kategori sedang. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan mahasiswa Bimbingan dan Konseling, agar dapat memperluas dan memperdalam kemampuan melakukan <em>self disclosure</em> dan perlu pelayanan Bimbingan dan Konseling untuk memperluas dan memperdalam kemampuan dalam melakukan <em>self disclosure</em>.</p

External losses in high-bypass turbo fan air engines

External losses in high-bypass turbo fan air engine