Has inventory volatility returned? A look at the current cycle

The massive liquidation of inventories during the 2001 recession contrasts sharply with the more moderate inventory movements observed in recent decades. While the rundown might be seen as evidence that firms are not managing their inventories as effectively as some economists have claimed, a careful analysis of inventory behavior in 2001 suggests that during much of the recession, firms were successfully regulating their inventories to avoid a large buildup of excess stock.Inventories ; Recessions

Self-reported health and health care use in an ageing population in the Agincourt sub-district of rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa is experiencing a demographic and epidemiological transition with an increase in population aged 50 years and older and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases. This, coupled with high HIV and tuberculosis prevalence, puts an already weak health service under greater strain. OBJECTIVE: To measure self-reported chronic health conditions and chronic disease risk factors, including smoking and alcohol use, and to establish their association with health care use in a rural South African population aged 50 years or older. METHODS: The Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE), in collaboration with the INDEPTH Network and the World Health Organization, was implemented in the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeast South Africa where there is a long-standing health and socio-demographic surveillance system. Household-based interviews were conducted in a random sample of people aged 50 years and older. The interview included questions on self-reported health and health care use, and some physical measurements, including blood pressure and anthropometry. RESULTS: Four hundred and twenty-five individuals aged 50 years or older participated in the study. Musculoskeletal pain was the most prevalent self-reported condition (41.7%; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 37.0-46.6) followed by hypertension (31.2%; 95% CI 26.8-35.9) and diabetes (6.1%; 95% CI 4.1-8.9). All self-reported conditions were significantly associated with low self-reported functionality and quality of life, 57% of participants had hypertension, including 44% of those who reported normal blood pressure. A large waist circumference and current alcohol consumption were associated with high risk of hypertension in men, whereas in women, old age, high waist-hip ratio, and less than 6 years of formal education were associated with high risk of hypertension. Only 45% of all participants reported accessing health care in the last 12 months. Those who reported higher use of the health facilities also reported lower levels of functioning and quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported chronic health conditions, especially hypertension, had a high prevalence in this population and were strongly associated with higher levels of health care use. The primary health care system in South Africa will need to provide care for people with non-communicable diseases

Parameter estimation of models with many damped complex exponentials

Parameter estimation techniques for data modelled as a sum of damped complex exponentials are proving to be a successful alternative to Fourier transform methods for spectral estimation

Profiling Methodology and Performance Tuning of the Met Office Unified Model for Weather and Climate Simulations

Global weather and climate modelling is a compute-intensive task that is mission-critical to government departments concerned with meteorology and climate change. The dominant component of these models is a global atmosphere model. One such model, the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), is widely used in both Europe and Australia for this purpose. This paper describes our experiences in developing an efficient profiling methodology and scalability analysis of the MetUM version 7.5 at both low scale and high scale atmosphere grid resolutions. Variability within the execution of the MetUM and variability of the run-time of identical jobs on a highly shared cluster are taken into account. The methodology uses a lightweight profiler internal to the MetUM which we have enhanced to have minimal overhead and enables accurate profiling with only a relatively modest usage of processor time. At high-scale resolution, the MetUM scaled to core counts of 2048, with load imbalance accounting a significant fraction the loss from ideal performance. Recent patches have removed two relatively small sources of inefficiency. Internal segment size parameters gave a modest performance improvement at low-scale resolution (such as are used in climate simulation); this however was not significant a higher scales. Near-square process grid configurations tended to give the best performance. Byte-swapping optimizations vastly improved I/O performance, which has in turn a large impact on performance in operational runs

Experiential learning about medication adherence

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140039/1/tct12645.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140039/2/tct12645_am.pd

Assessing health and well-being among older people in rural South Africa

Background: The population in developing countries is ageing, which is likely to increase the burden of noncommunicable diseases and disability. Objective: To describe factors associated with self-reported health, disability and quality of life (QoL) of older people in the rural northeast of South Africa. Design: Cross-sectional survey of 6,206 individuals aged 50 and over. We used multivariate analysis to examine relationships between demographic variables and measures of self-reported health (Health Status), functional ability (WHODASi) and quality of life (WHOQoL). Results: About 4,085 of 6,206 people eligible (65.8%) completed the interview. Women (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.30, 95% CI 1.09, 1.55), older age (OR2.59, 95% CI 1.97, 3.40), lower education (OR1.62, 95% CI 1.31,2.00), single status (OR1.18, 95% CI 1.01, 1.37) and not working at present (OR1.29, 95% CI 1.06, 1.59) were associated with a low health status. Women were also more likely to report a higher level of disability (OR1.38, 95% CI 1.14, 1.66), as were older people (OR2.92, 95% CI 2.25, 3.78), those with no education (OR1.57, 95% CI 1.26, 1.97), with single status (OR1.25, 95% CI 1.06, 1.46) and not working at present (OR1.33, 95% CI 1.06, 1.66). Older age (OR1.35, 95% CI 1.06, 1.74), no education (OR1.39, 95% CI 1.11, 1.73), single status (OR1.28, 95% CI 1.10, 1.49), a low household asset score (OR1.52, 95% CI 1.19, 1.94) and not working at present (OR1.32; 95% CI 1.07, 1.64) were all associated with lower quality of life. Conclusions: This study presents the first population-based data from South Africa on health status, functional ability and quality of life among older people. Health and social services will need to be restructured to provide effective care for older people living in rural South Africa with impaired functionality and other health problems

Building capacity for public and population health research in Africa : the consortium for advanced research training in Africa (CARTA) model

Background: Globally, sub-Saharan Africa bears the greatest burden of disease. Strengthened research capacity to understand the social determinants of health among different African populations is key to addressing the drivers of poor health and developing interventions to improve health outcomes and health systems in the region. Yet, the continent clearly lacks centers of research excellence that can generate a strong evidence base to address the region’s socio-economic and health problems. Objective and program overview: We describe the recently launched Consortium for Advanced Research Training in Africa (CARTA), which brings together a network of nine academic and four research institutions from West, East, Central, and Southern Africa, and select northern universities and training institutes. CARTA’s program of activities comprises two primary, interrelated, and mutually reinforcing objectives: to strengthen research infrastructure and capacity at African universities; and to support doctoral training through the creation of a collaborative doctoral training program in population and public health. The ultimate goal of CARTA is to build local research capacity to understand the determinants of population health and effectively intervene to improve health outcomes and health systems. Conclusions: CARTA’s focus on the local production of networked and high-skilled researchers committed to working in sub-Saharan Africa, and on the concomitant increase in local research and training capacity of African universities and research institutes addresses the inability of existing programs to create a critical mass of well-trained and networked researchers across the continent. The initiative’s goal of strengthening human resources and university-wide systems critical to the success and sustainability of research productivity in public and population health will rejuvenate institutional teaching, research, and administrative systems

A cross-sectional study of vascular risk factors in a rural South African population : data from the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI)

Background: Rural sub-Saharan Africa is at an early stage of economic and health transition. It is predicted that the 21st century will see a serious added economic burden from non-communicable disease including vascular disease in low-income countries as they progress through the transition. The stage of vascular disease in a population is thought to result from the prevalence of vascular risk factors. Already hypertension and stroke are common in adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a multidisciplinary approach we aimed to assess the prevalence of several vascular risk factors in Agincourt, a rural demographic surveillance site in South Africa. Methods: We performed a cross sectional random sample survey of adults aged over 35 in Agincourt (population ≈ 70 000). Participants were visited at home by a trained nurse who administered a questionnaire, carried out clinical measurements and took a blood sample. From this we assessed participants' history of vascular risk, blood pressure using an OMRON 705 CP monitor, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 402 people (24% men) participated. There was a high prevalence of smoking in men, but the number of cigarettes smoked was small. There was a striking difference in mean BMI between men and women (22.8 kg/m2 versus 27.2 kg/m2), but levels of blood pressure were very similar. 43% of participants had a blood pressure greater than 140/90 or were on anti-hypertensive treatment and 37% of participants identified with measured high blood pressure were on pharmacological treatment. 12% of participants had an ABI of < 0.9, sugesting the presence of sub-clinical atheroma. 25.6% of participants had a total cholesterol level > 5 mmol/l. Conclusion: We found a high prevalence of hypertension, obesity in women, and a suggestion of subclinical atheroma despite relatively favourable cholesterol levels in a rural South African population. South Africa is facing the challenge of an emerging epidemic of vascular disease. Research to establish the social determinates of these risk factors and interventions to reduce both individual and population risk are required