A New Family of Exponential Type Estimators in the Presence of Non-Response

We propose families of estimators for the population mean using an exponential function in case of non-response. This situation is examined under two cases, Case I and II. The bias, MSE and minimum MSE are separately obtained for both cases. We compare the proposed estimators theoretically with the main estimators from the literature, such as Hansen and Hurwitz (1946), ratio, regression and exponential estimators. The conditions for which the proposed estimators are most efficient are obtained. Moreover, different empirical studies are conducted to support the theoretical results for both cases

The Analysis of the Short-term Capital Movements by Using the VAR Model: The Case of Turkey

This paper investigates the relations among short-term capital inflows, government deficit, interest rate differentials, real exchange rate and some accounts of the balance of payments in Turkey in 1990s by using the vector autoregression (VAR) technique. The dynamic behaviours of each variable due to random shocks given to short-term foreign liabilities are captured by impulse response functions, and the portion of variance in the prediction for each variable in the system that is attributable to its own innovations and to shocks to other variables in the system is analysed by variance decomposition method. It is found that the policy of high interest-low exchange rate (hot money) is the main reason for the short-term capital inflows in Turkey, and we propose some main controls on capital inflows to limit some of the macroeconomic repercussions of these inflows

Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey

As it is possible to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), it is suitable to apply this method to the chaotic series having nonlinear component. Therefore, in this study, we propose to employ ANN method for high volatility Turkish TL/US dollar exchange rate series and the results show that ANN method has the best forecasting accuracy with respect to time series models, such as seasonal ARIMA and ARCH models. The suggestions about the details of the usage of ANN method are also made for the exchange rate of Turkey.Activation function, ARIMA, ARCH, Artificial neural network, Chaotic series, Exchange rate, Forecasting, Time series

Türkiye'nin İhracat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi

This study includes an econometric analysis of the export demand behaviour by using Turkey's annual data that cover 32 years periods from 1970 to 2002. In the study, the 'bounds test' method of Pesaran et al (2001) was used to investigate the long run relationship between export demand, and its determinants, namely income and relative prices. As a result of this empirical analysis, it was demonstrated that export volume, income and relative prices were cointegrated. The estimated long term elasticities of export demand with respect to income and relative prices are 0.21 and -1.684, respectively. The sum of the elasticities of import and export demand exceeds one (-1.01) i.e., Marshall-Lerner condition holds. These results show that monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies may be used as substitutive policies to correct unfavourable trade balance.Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin 1970'den 2002 yılına kadar kadar olan 32 yıllık dönemini kapsayan yıllık verileri kullanarak yapılan ihracat talebinin ekonometrik analizini içermektedir. Çalışmada, ihracat talebi ile ihracat talebini belirleyen etkenler olan gelir ve nispi fiyatlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelemek amacıyla Pesaran, ve öte. (2001)'in sınır testi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu ampirik analizin sonucunda, ihracatla, gelir ve nispi fiyatların eşbütünleşik oldukları görülmüştür. İhracat talebinin, gelir ve nispi fiyatlara göre tahmin edilen uzun dönem esneklikleri sırayla; 0.21 ve - 1.684 olarak bulunmuştur. İthalat ve ihracat fiyat esnekliklerinin toplamı birden büyüktür. (-1.01) Marshall-Lerner koşulu sağlanmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar; parasal, mali ve döviz kuru politikalarının halen mevcut olan aleyhteki ticaret dengesinin düzeltilmesinde yardımcı araçlar olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir

Fisher Etkisinin Türkiye Verileri ile Testi

In this study, the Fisher effect, which claims that there is one to one long-term relationship between the inflation rate and the long-term nominal interest rate, has been tested using Turkish quarterly data over the 1987(I)- 2004(4) periods. Here, ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration newly developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) in applied econometrics is used. Results support the Fisher effect.Bu çalışmada, uzun dönemli faiz oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasında bire birlik uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin mevcut olduğunu ifade eden Fisher etkisi, 1987(I)-2004(4) dönemine ilişkin Türkiye ekonomisi verileri kullanılarak test edilmektedir. Çalışmada, uygulamalı ekonometride Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından yeni geliştirilen eşbütünleşmeye ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Fisher etkisini desteklemektedir

Improvement In Estimating The Population Mean In Simple Random Sampling

This paper proposes some estimators for the population mean using the ratio estimators presented in [C. Kadilar, H. Cingi, Ratio estimators in simple random sampling, Applied Mathematics and Computation 151 (2004) 893-902] and shows that all proposed estimators are always more efficient than the ratio estimators. This result is also supported by a numerical example. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.WoSScopu

Improved Estimators using Exponential Function for the Population Mean in Simple and Stratified Random Samplings

In this article, we investigated estimators with the exponential function for the estimation of the population mean in the simple and stratified random samplings. Family of estimators based on the exponential function is proposed for both sampling methods. The proposed estimators are compared with estimators in literature. Moreover, we provide an application on different data sets to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed estimators. As a result, the proposed estimators are more efficient than other estimators in literature under the obtained conditions in theory

Modified Estimators For The Change Point In Hazard Function

We propose the consistent estimators for the change point in hazard function by improving the estimators in [A.P. Basu, J.K. Ghosh, S.N. Joshi, On estimating change point in a failure rate, in: S.S. Gupta,J.O. Berger (Eds.), Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics IV, vol. 2, Springer-Verlag, 1988, pp. 239-252] and [H.T. Nguyen, G.S. Rogers, E.A. Walker, Estimation in change point hazard rate model, Biometrika 71 (1984) 299-304]. By a simulation study, we show that the proposed estimators are more efficient than the original estimators in many cases. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved