On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

This is the final version of the article. Available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE); grant no. NE/J017043/1)

Switching the World's Salt Supply—Learning from Iodization to Achieve Potassium Enrichment

Sodium is an essential dietary component, but excess sodium intake can lead to high blood pressure and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Many national and international bodies, including the World Health Organization, have advocated for population-wide sodium reduction interventions. Most have been unsuccessful due to inadequate sodium reduction by food industry and difficulties in persuading consumers to add less salt to food. Recent research highlights potassium-enriched salt as a new, feasible, acceptable, and scalable approach to reducing the harms caused by excess sodium and inadequate potassium consumption. Modeling shows that a global switch from regular salt to potassium-enriched salt has the potential to avert millions of strokes, heart attacks, and premature deaths worldwide each year. There will be many challenges in switching the world's salt supply to potassium-enriched salt, but the success of universal salt iodization shows that making a global change to the manufacture and use of salt is a tractable proposition. This in-depth review of universal salt iodization identified the importance of a multisectoral effort with strong global leadership, the support of multilateral organizations, engagement with the salt industry, empowered incountry teams, strong participation of national governments, understanding the salt supply chain, and a strategic advocacy and communication plan. Key challenges to the implementation of the iodization program were costs to government, industry, and consumers, industry concerns about consumer acceptability, variance in the size and capabilities of salt producers, inconsistent quality control, ineffective regulation, and trade-related regulatory issues. Many of the opportunities and challenges to universal salt iodization will likely also be applicable to switching the global salt supply to iodized and potassium-enriched salt

Interleukin-6 and Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: New Insights From CANVAS

OBJECTIVE The inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) is associated with cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in various populations. However, data in patients with type 2 diabetes are limited. We assessed the association of IL-6 with CV and kidney outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) and determined the effect of canagliflozin on IL-6. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo. Plasma IL-6 was measured at baseline and years 1, 3, and 6. The composite CV outcome was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or CV death; the composite kidney outcome was sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney-related death. Multi-variable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations between IL-6 and the outcomes. The effect of canagliflozin on IL-6 over time was assessed with a repeated-measures mixed-effects model. RESULTS The geometric mean IL-6 at baseline, available in 3,503 (80.2%) participants, was 1.7 pg/mL. Each doubling of baseline IL-6 was associated with 14% (95% CI 4, 24) and 21% (95% CI 1, 45) increased risk of CV and kidney outcomes, respectively. Over 6 years, IL-6 increased by 5.8% (95% CI 3.4, 8.3) in the placebo group. Canagliflozin modestly attenuated the IL-6 increase (absolute percentage difference vs. placebo 4.4% [95% CI 1.3, 9.9; P = 0.01]). At year 1, each 25% lower level of IL-6 compared with baseline was associated with 7% (95% CI 1, 22) and 14% (95% CI 5, 22) lower risks for the CV and kidney outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk, baseline IL-6 and its 1-year change were associated with CV and kidney outcomes. The effect of IL-6–lowering therapy on CV, kidney, and safety outcomes remains to be tested

Discovery and Validation of a New Class of Small Molecule Toll-Like Receptor 4 (TLR4) Inhibitors

Many inflammatory diseases may be linked to pathologically elevated signaling via the receptor for lipopolysaccharide (LPS), toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4). There has thus been great interest in the discovery of TLR4 inhibitors as potential anti-inflammatory agents. Recently, the structure of TLR4 bound to the inhibitor E5564 was solved, raising the possibility that novel TLR4 inhibitors that target the E5564-binding domain could be designed. We utilized a similarity search algorithm in conjunction with a limited screening approach of small molecule libraries to identify compounds that bind to the E5564 site and inhibit TLR4. Our lead compound, C34, is a 2-acetamidopyranoside (MW 389) with the formula C17H27NO9, which inhibited TLR4 in enterocytes and macrophages in vitro, and reduced systemic inflammation in mouse models of endotoxemia and necrotizing enterocolitis. Molecular docking of C34 to the hydrophobic internal pocket of the TLR4 co-receptor MD-2 demonstrated a tight fit, embedding the pyran ring deep inside the pocket. Strikingly, C34 inhibited LPS signaling ex-vivo in human ileum that was resected from infants with necrotizing enterocolitis. These findings identify C34 and the β-anomeric cyclohexyl analog C35 as novel leads for small molecule TLR4 inhibitors that have potential therapeutic benefit for TLR4-mediated inflammatory diseases. © 2013 Neal et al

Neurospora from natural populations: Population genomics insights into the Life history of a model microbial Eukaryote

The ascomycete filamentous fungus Neurospora crassa played a historic role in experimental biology and became a model system for genetic research. Stimulated by a systematic effort to collect wild strains initiated by Stanford geneticist David Perkins, the genus Neurospora has also become a basic model for the study of evolutionary processes, speciation, and population biology. In this chapter, we will first trace the history that brought Neurospora into the era of population genomics. We will then cover the major contributions of population genomic investigations using Neurospora to our understanding of microbial biogeography and speciation, and review recent work using population genomics and genome-wide association mapping that illustrates the unique potential of Neurospora as a model for identifying the genetic basis of (potentially adaptive) phenotypes in filamentous fungi. The advent of population genomics has contributed to firmly establish Neurospora as a complete model system and we hope our review will entice biologists to include Neurospora in their research

Validity and Normative Data for the Biber Figure Learning Test: A Visual Supraspan Memory Measure

The Biber Figure Learning Test (BFLT), a visuospatial serial figure learning test, was evaluated for biological correlates and psychometric properties, and normative data were generated. Nondemented individuals ( n = 332, 73 ± 7, 41% female) from the Vanderbilt Memory & Aging Project completed a comprehensive neuropsychological protocol. Adjusted regression models related BFLT indices to structural brain magnetic resonance imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of brain health. Regression-based normative data were generated. Lower BFLT performances (Total Learning, Delayed Recall, Recognition) related to smaller medial temporal lobe volumes and higher CSF tau concentrations but not CSF amyloid. BFLT indices were most strongly correlated with other measures of verbal and nonverbal memory and visuospatial skills. The BFLT provides a comprehensive assessment of all aspects of visuospatial learning and memory and is sensitive to biomarkers of unhealthy brain aging. Enhanced normative data enriches the clinical utility of this visual serial figure learning test for use with older adults

Mortality among Patients with Cleared Hepatitis C Virus Infection Compared to the General Population: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The increased mortality in HCV-infected individuals partly stems from viral damage to the liver and partly from risk-taking behaviours. We examined mortality in patients who cleared their HCV-infection, comparing it to that of the general population. We also addressed the question whether prognosis differed according to age, substance abuse (alcohol abuse and injection drug use) and comorbidity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients with cleared HCV-infection were categorized into one of 8 groups according to age (20-39 years or 40-69 years) and patient characteristics (no substance abuse/no comorbidity; substance abuse/no comorbidity; no substance abuse/comorbidity; and substance abuse/comorbidity). For each patient, 4 age- and gender-matched individuals without substance abuse or comorbidity were selected from the general population, comprising a total of 8 comparison cohorts. We analyzed 10-year survival and used stratified Cox Regression analysis to compute mortality rate ratios (MRRs), comparing mortality between the 8 patient groups and the comparison cohorts, adjusting for personal income. Among patients without substance abuse or comorbidity, those aged 40-69 years had the same mortality as the comparison cohort (10-year survival: 95% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 93%-97%), MRR: 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8-2.3)), whereas those aged 20-39 years had higher mortality than the comparison cohort (10-year survival: 93% versus 99%, MRR: 5.7 (95% CI: 2.3-14.0). For both age categories, substance abuse and comorbidity decreased survival and increased MRRs. Patients aged 40-69 years with substance abuse and comorbidity suffered from substantial mortality (MRR: 12.5 (95% CI: 5.1-30.6)). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in patients aged 40-69 years with cleared HCV-infection is comparable to individuals without HCV, provided they have no substance abuse or comorbidity. Any substance abuse and/or comorbidity not captured in the registries used for our study could explain the increased mortality in patients aged 20-39 years without documented substance abuse or comorbidity