Bridge-specific fragility analysis: when is it really necessary?

In seismic assessment of bridges the research focus has recently shifted on the derivation of bridge-specific fragility curves that account for the effect of different geometry, structural system, component and soil properties, on the seismic behaviour. In this context, a new, component-based methodology for the derivation of bridge-specific fragility curves has been recently proposed by the authors, with a view to overcoming the inherent difficulties in assessing all bridges of a road network and the drawbacks of existing methodologies, which use the same group of fragility curves for bridges within the same typological class. The main objective of this paper is to critically assess the necessity of bridge-specific fragility analysis, starting from the effect of structure-specific parameters on component capacity (limit state thresholds), seismic demand, and fragility curves. The aforementioned methodology is used to derive fragility curves for all bridges within an actual road network, with a view to investigating the consistency of adopting generic fragility curves for bridges that fall within the same class and quantifying the degree of over- or under-estimation of the probability of damage when generic bridge classes are considered. Moreover, fragility curves for all representative bridges of the analysed concrete bridge classes are presented to illustrate the differentiation in bridge fragility for varying structural systems, bridge geometry, total bridge length and maximum pier height. Based on the above, the relevance of bridge-specific fragility analysis is assessed, and pertinent conclusions are drawn

Treatment outcomes of new tuberculosis patients hospitalized in Kampala, Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In most resource limited settings, new tuberculosis (TB) patients are usually treated as outpatients. We sought to investigate the reasons for hospitalisation and the predictors of poor treatment outcomes and mortality in a cohort of hospitalized new TB patients in Kampala, Uganda. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Ninety-six new TB patients hospitalised between 2003 and 2006 were enrolled and followed for two years. Thirty two were HIV-uninfected and 64 were HIV-infected. Among the HIV-uninfected, the commonest reasons for hospitalization were low Karnofsky score (47%) and need for diagnostic evaluation (25%). HIV-infected patients were commonly hospitalized due to low Karnofsky score (72%), concurrent illness (16%) and diagnostic evaluation (14%). Eleven HIV uninfected patients died (mortality rate 19.7 per 100 person-years) while 41 deaths occurred among the HIV-infected patients (mortality rate 46.9 per 100 person years). In all patients an unsuccessful treatment outcome (treatment failure, death during the treatment period or an unknown outcome) was associated with duration of TB symptoms, with the odds of an unsuccessful outcome decreasing with increasing duration. Among HIV-infected patients, an unsuccessful treatment outcome was also associated with male sex (P = 0.004) and age (P = 0.034). Low Karnofsky score (aHR = 8.93, 95% CI 1.88 - 42.40, P = 0.001) was the only factor significantly associated with mortality among the HIV-uninfected. Mortality among the HIV-infected was associated with the composite variable of CD4 and ART use, with patients with baseline CD4 below 200 cells/µL who were not on ART at a greater risk of death than those who were on ART, and low Karnofsky score (aHR = 2.02, 95% CI 1.02 - 4.01, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: Poor health status is a common cause of hospitalisation for new TB patients. Mortality in this study was very high and associated with advanced HIV Disease and no use of ART

Establishing a Cohort at High Risk of HIV Infection in South Africa: Challenges and Experiences of the CAPRISA 002 Acute Infection Study

OBJECTIVES: To describe the baseline demographic data, clinical characteristics and HIV-incidence rates of a cohort at high risk for HIV infection in South Africa as well as the challenges experienced in establishing and maintaining the cohort. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: Between August 2004 and May 2005 a cohort of HIV-uninfected women was established for the CAPRISA 002 Acute Infection Study, a natural history study of HIV-1 subtype C infection. Volunteers were identified through peer-outreach. The cohort was followed monthly to determine HIV infection rates and clinical presentation of early HIV infection. Risk reduction counselling and male and female condoms were provided. After screening 775 individuals, a cohort of 245 uninfected high-risk women was established. HIV-prevalence at screening was 59.6% (95% CI: 55.9% to 62.8%) posing a challenge in accruing HIV-uninfected women. The majority of women (78.8%) were self-identified as sex-workers with a median of 2 clients per day. Most women (95%) reported more than one casual sexual partner in the previous 3 months (excluding clients) and 58.8% reported condom use in their last sexual encounter. Based on laboratory testing, 62.0% had a sexually transmitted infection at baseline. During 390 person-years of follow-up, 28 infections occurred yielding seroincidence rate of 7.2 (95% CI: 4.5 to 9.8) per 100 person-years. Despite the high mobility of this sex worker cohort retention rate after 2 years was 86.1%. High co-morbidity created challenges for ancillary care provision, both in terms of human and financial resources. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Challenges experienced were high baseline HIV-prevalence, lower than anticipated HIV-incidence and difficulties retaining participants. Despite challenges, we have successfully accrued this cohort of HIV-uninfected women with favourable retention, enabling us to study the natural history of HIV-1 during acute HIV-infection. Our experiences provide lessons for others establishing similar cohorts, which will be key for advancing the vaccine and prevention research agenda in resource-constrained settings

Impact of an adherence intervention on the effectiveness of tenofovir gel in the CAPRISA 004 trial.

CAPRISA, 2014.Abstract not available in pdf

Assessing adherence in the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir gel HIV prevention trial: results of a nested case–control study.

CAPRISA, 2014.Abstract available in pdf

Calculating unreported confidence intervals for paired data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Confidence intervals (or associated standard errors) facilitate assessment of the practical importance of the findings of a health study, and their incorporation into a meta-analysis. For paired design studies, these items are often not reported. Since the descriptive statistics for such studies are usually presented in the same way as for unpaired designs, direct computation of the standard error is not possible without additional information.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Elementary, well-known relationships between standard errors and <it>p</it>-values were used to develop computation schemes for paired mean difference, risk difference, risk ratio and odds ratio.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Unreported confidence intervals for large sample paired binary and numeric data can be computed fairly accurately using simple methods provided the <it>p</it>-value is given. In the case of paired binary data, the design based 2 × 2 table can be reconstructed as well.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results will facilitate appropriate interpretation of paired design studies, and their incorporation into meta-analyses.</p

Measuring adherence by visual inspection of returned empty gel applicators in the CAPRISA 004 microbicide trial.

CAPRISA, 2014.Abstract not available in pdf