Wind Data Mining by Kohonen Neural Networks

Time series of Circulation Weather Type (CWT), including daily averaged wind direction and vorticity, are self-classified by similarity using Kohonen Neural Networks (KNN). It is shown that KNN is able to map by similarity all 7300 five-day CWT sequences during the period of 1975–94, in London, United Kingdom. It gives, as a first result, the most probable wind sequences preceding each one of the 27 CWT Lamb classes in that period. Inversely, as a second result, the observed diffuse correlation between both five-day CWT sequences and the CWT of the 6(th) day, in the long 20-year period, can be generalized to predict the last from the previous CWT sequence in a different test period, like 1995, as both time series are similar. Although the average prediction error is comparable to that obtained by forecasting standard methods, the KNN approach gives complementary results, as they depend only on an objective classification of observed CWT data, without any model assumption. The 27 CWT of the Lamb Catalogue were coded with binary three-dimensional vectors, pointing to faces, edges and vertex of a “wind-cube,” so that similar CWT vectors were close

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

We thank The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland for providing funding for Miloš Rydval’s PhD. The Scottish pine network expansion has been an ongoing task since 2007 and funding must be acknowledged to the following projects: EU project ‘Millennium’ (017008-2), Leverhulme Trust project ‘RELiC: Reconstructing 8000 years of Environmental and Landscape change in the Cairngorms (F/00 268/BG)’ and the NERC project ‘SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/K003097/1)’.This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ’subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology > 800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-16th century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the 16th century until the early 1800s – agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe - with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response one year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Modular prevention of heart disease following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) [ISRCTN42984084]

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Australia and it is recommended that all persons with unstable angina (UA) or myocardial infarction (MI) participate in secondary prevention as offered in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs. However, the majority of patients do not access standard CR and have higher baseline coronary risk and poorer knowledge of CHD than those persons due to commence CR. The objective of this study is to investigate whether a modular guided self-choice approach to secondary prevention improves coronary risk profile and knowledge in patients who do not access standard CR. METHODS/DESIGN: This randomised controlled trial with one year follow-up will be conducted at a tertiary referral hospital. Participants eligible for but not accessing standard CR will be randomly allocated to either a modular or conventional care group. Modular care will involve participation in individualised modules that involve choice, goal-setting and coaching. Conventional care will involve ongoing heart disease management as directed by the participant's doctors. Both modular and conventional groups will be compared with a contemporary reference group of patients attending CR. Outcomes include measured modifiable risk factors, relative heart disease risk and knowledge of risk factors. DISCUSSION: We present the rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial testing a modular approachfor the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease following acute coronary syndrome

Do Meio- and Macrobenthic Nematodes Differ in Community Composition and Body Weight Trends with Depth?

Nematodes occur regularly in macrobenthic samples but are rarely identified from them and are thus considered exclusively a part of the meiobenthos. Our study compares the generic composition of nematode communities and their individual body weight trends with water depth in macrobenthic (>250/300 µm) samples from the deep Arctic (Canada Basin), Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the Bermuda slope with meiobenthic samples (<45 µm) from GOM. The dry weight per individual (µg) of all macrobenthic nematodes combined showed an increasing trend with increasing water depth, while the dry weight per individual of the meiobenthic GOM nematodes showed a trend to decrease with increasing depth. Multivariate analyses showed that the macrobenthic nematode community in the GOM was more similar to the macrobenthic nematodes of the Canada Basin than to the GOM meiobenthic nematodes. In particular, the genera Enoploides, Crenopharynx, Micoletzkyia, Phanodermella were dominant in the macrobenthos and accounted for most of the difference. Relative abundance of non-selective deposit feeders (1B) significantly decreased with depth in macrobenthos but remained dominant in the meiobenthic community. The occurrence of a distinct assemblage of bigger nematodes of high dry weight per individual in the macrobenthos suggests the need to include nematodes in macrobenthic studies

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years

Effects of self-management, education and specific exercises, delivered by health professionals, in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An education self-management program for people with osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee was designed to be delivered by health professionals, incorporating their knowledge and expertise. Improvement in quality of life, health status and pain in response to this program has previously been demonstrated in an uncontrolled pilot study. To more rigorously test the effectiveness of the program we will undertake a randomised controlled trial of people with OA of the knee offering specific self-administered exercises and education, in accordance with the principles of self-management.</p> <p>Aim: To determine whether an education self management program for subjects with Osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee (OAK program) implemented by health professionals in a primary health care setting can achieve and maintain clinically meaningful improvements compared standard medical management in a control group.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The effects of standard medical management will be compared with the effects of the OAK program in a single-blind randomized study.</p> <p><it>Participants: </it>146 male and female participants with established OA knee will be recruited. Volunteers with coexistent inflammatory joint disease or serious co-morbidities will be excluded.</p> <p><it>Interventions: </it>Participants will be randomized into either intervention or control groups (delayed start). The intervention group will complete the OA knee program and both groups will be followed for 6 months.</p> <p><it>Measurements: </it>Assessments will be at baseline, 8 weeks and 6 months. SF-36, WOMAC and VAS pain questionnaires will be completed. Isometric quadriceps and hamstring strength will be measured using a dynamometer; knee range of movement using a goniometer; and physical function will be determined by a modified timed up and go test. Data will be analysed using repeated measures ANOVA.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>While there is evidence to support the effectiveness of SM programs for people with hypertension, diabetes and asthma, the evidence available for treatment of arthritis remains equivocal. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a disease specific self-management program for people with OA knee.</p> <p>The study design includes all the important features of a clinical experimental study to minimize bias so the results of the study will provide a high level of evidence. People with OA of the knee have identified pain and problems with daily activities as the most important problems associated with their condition. The outcome measures selected specifically address these issues and have demonstrated validity and are responsive within the range of change expected in response to the intervention. Hence the results of the study will reflect their priorities.</p> <p>The results of the study will provide evidence to guide clinicians and funding bodies seeking to establish priorities regarding the provision of this disease specific program.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ACTR number: 12607000080426</p