Dengue Deaths in Puerto Rico: Lessons Learned from the 2007 Epidemic

Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics; an estimated 50 million cases occur annually and 40 percent of the world's population lives in areas with dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Dengue has a wide range of clinical presentations from an undifferentiated acute febrile illness, classic dengue fever, to severe dengue (i.e., dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome). About 5% of patients develop severe dengue, which is more common with second or subsequent infections. No vaccines are available to prevent dengue, and there are no specific antiviral treatments for patients with dengue. However, early recognition of shock and intensive supportive therapy can reduce risk of death from ∼10% to less than 1% among severe dengue cases. Reviewing dengue deaths is one means to identify issues in clinical management. These findings can be used to develop healthcare provider education to minimize dengue morbidity and mortality

Genome Sequence Analysis of Dengue Virus 1 Isolated in Key West, Florida

Dengue virus (DENV) is transmitted to humans through the bite of mosquitoes. In November 2010, a dengue outbreak was reported in Monroe County in southern Florida (FL), including greater than 20 confirmed human cases. The virus collected from the human cases was verified as DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) and one isolate was provided for sequence analysis. RNA was extracted from the DENV-1 isolate and was used in reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to amplify PCR fragments to sequence. Nucleic acid primers were designed to generate overlapping PCR fragments that covered the entire genome. The DENV-1 isolate found in Key West (KW), FL was sequenced for whole genome characterization. Sequence assembly, Genbank searches, and recombination analyses were performed to verify the identity of the genome sequences and to determine percent similarity to known DENV-1 sequences. We show that the KW DENV-1 strain is 99% identical to Nicaraguan and Mexican DENV-1 strains. Phylogenetic and recombination analyses suggest that the DENV-1 isolated in KW originated from Nicaragua (NI) and the KW strain may circulate in KW. Also, recombination analysis results detected recombination events in the KW strain compared to DENV-1 strains from Puerto Rico. We evaluate the relative growth of KW strain of DENV-1 compared to other dengue viruses to determine whether the underlying genetics of the strain is associated with a replicative advantage, an important consideration since local transmission of DENV may result because domestic tourism can spread DENVs

An Outbreak of Dengue Fever in St. Croix (US Virgin Islands), 2005

BACKGROUND: Periodic outbreaks of dengue fever occur in the United States Virgin Islands. In June 2005, an outbreak of dengue virus (DENV) serotype-2 with cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was detected in St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. The objective of this report is to describe this outbreak of DENV-2 and the findings of a case-control study examining risk factors for DHF. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This is the largest dengue outbreak ever recorded in St. Croix, with 331 suspected dengue cases reported island-wide during 2005 (62.2 cases/10,000 population); 54% were hospitalized, 21% had at least one hemorrhagic manifestation, 28% had thrombocytopenia, 5% had DHF and 1 patient died. Eighty-nine laboratory-positive hospitalized patients were identified. Of these, there were 15 (17%) who met the WHO criteria for DHF (cases) and 74 (83%) who did not (controls). The only variable significantly associated with DHF on bivariate or multivariable analysis was age, with an adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.033 (1.003,1.064). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: During this outbreak of DENV-2, a high proportion of cases developed DHF and increasing age was significantly associated with DHF

Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 — Preliminary Report

BACKGROUND: Although several therapeutic agents have been evaluated for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), no antiviral agents have yet been shown to be efficacious. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only. RESULTS: A total of 1062 patients underwent randomization (with 541 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo). Those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 10 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 11), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 18) among those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.49; P<0.001, by a log-rank test). In an analysis that used a proportional-odds model with an eight-category ordinal scale, the patients who received remdesivir were found to be more likely than those who received placebo to have clinical improvement at day 15 (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.9, after adjustment for actual disease severity). The Kaplan–Meier estimates of mortality were 6.7% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo by day 15 and 11.4% with remdesivir and 15.2% with placebo by day 29 (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.52 to 1.03). Serious adverse events were reported in 131 of the 532 patients who received remdesivir (24.6%) and in 163 of the 516 patients who received placebo (31.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; ACTT-1 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04280705. opens in new tab.

Using hospital discharge data for determining neonatal morbidity and mortality: a validation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite widespread use of neonatal hospital discharge data, there are few published reports on the accuracy of population health data with neonatal diagnostic or procedure codes. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of using routinely collected hospital discharge data in identifying neonatal morbidity during the birth admission compared with data from a statewide audit of selected neonatal intensive care (NICU) admissions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Validation study of population-based linked hospital discharge/birth data against neonatal intensive care audit data from New South Wales, Australia for 2,432 babies admitted to NICUs, 1994–1996. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPV) with exact binomial confidence intervals were calculated for 12 diagnoses and 6 procedures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sensitivities ranged from 37.0% for drainage of an air leak to 97.7% for very low birthweight, specificities all exceeded 85% and PPVs ranged from 70.9% to 100%. In-hospital mortality, low birthweight (≤1500 g), retinopathy of prematurity, respiratory distress syndrome, meconium aspiration, pneumonia, pulmonary hypertension, selected major anomalies, any mechanical ventilation (including CPAP), major surgery and surgery for patent ductus arteriosus or necrotizing enterocolitis were accurately identified with PPVs over 92%. Transient tachypnea of the newborn and drainage of an air leak had the lowest PPVs, 70.9% and 83.6% respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although under-ascertained, routinely collected hospital discharge data had high PPVs for most validated items and would be suitable for risk factor analyses of neonatal morbidity. Procedures tended to be more accurately recorded than diagnoses.</p

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

Prospective study on severe malaria among in-patients at Bombo regional hospital, Tanga, north-eastern Tanzania

In Tanzania, malaria is the major cause of morbidity and mortality, accounting for about 30% of all hospital admissions and around 15% of all hospital deaths. Severe anaemia and cerebral malaria are the two main causes of death due to malaria in Tanga, Tanzania. This was a prospective observational hospital-based study conducted from October 2004 to September 2005. Consent was sought from study participants or guardians in the wards. Finger prick blood was collected from each individual for thick and thin smears, blood sugar levels and haemoglobin estimations by Haemocue machine after admission. A total of 494 patients were clinically diagnosed and admitted as cases of severe malaria. Majority of them (55.3%) were children below the age of 5 years. Only 285 out of the total 494 (57.7%) patients had positive blood smears for malaria parasites. Adults aged 20 years and above had the highest rate of cases with fever and blood smear negative for malaria parasites. Commonest clinical manifestations of severe malaria were cerebral malaria (47.3%) and severe anaemia (14.6%), particularly in the under-fives. Case fatality was 3.2% and majority of the deaths occurred in the under-fives and adults aged 20 years and above with negative blood smears. Proper laboratory diagnosis is crucial for case management and reliable data collection. The non-specific nature of malaria symptomatologies limits the use of clinical diagnosis and the IMCI strategy. Strengthening of laboratory investigations to guide case management is recommended