Characteristics of medium range rainfall forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon

Mean characteristics of the rainfall forecasts produced by the global data analysis-forecast system of India are examined for the summer monsoons of 1993-1996. Further, daily rainfall forecasts (accumulated for 24 h) extending from day 1 to day 5 are utilised to compute monthly/seasonal mean forecast fields to study their consistency and reliability. Global patterns of rainfall forecasts are also compared with the large scale rainfall climatological fields. In addition, observed rainfall distributions over India are used for regional verification of the medium range rainfall forecasts. The forecasts appear to reproduce most of the large scale features of rainfall, except the sharp gradients over the Deccan plateau (leeside of the Western Ghats-west coast mountains over the south of Peninsular India) and the Gangetic plains over the north of India. Further, it is found that the forecast model has a characteristic tendency to reduce the quantum of rainfall over northwest India and the north Indian plains to the south of the Himalayas. In addition, in this study, certain aspects of the year-to-year variability of the predicted rainfall fields and their associated characteristics are examined along with the other systematic errors of the model. It is found that in this case, the sources of systematic errors could at least partially be eliminated, the rainfall forecasts up to day 3 or so can become a very useful product of interest

The evolution and retreat features of the summer monsoon over India

The motivation for this study stems from the fact that there are no uniform criteria to identify the onset of the summer monsoon at a particular location. Furthermore, proper understanding of the events that culminate in the onset of the monsoon is crucial to allow its prediction over various time scales. An attempt is made to elucidate the characteristics of the onset and retreat of the monsoon using a global data assimilation and forecast system. For this purpose, the time series of net tropospheric large-scale budgets of kinetic energy, heat and moisture are examined over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and some land locations in India. The study makes use of daily data comprising operational analysis (0000 UTC) and forecasts (day1 through day5) produced by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, for the summer season of 1994. The sequence of events associated with the advent of the monsoon is noticeably different at various locations. The horizontal fluxes of heat and moisture produce a divergence regime prior to the evolution and change to convergence during the onset of monsoon over the Arabian Sea. Similarly, intense diabatic cooling is noticed prior to the onset of mansoon and changes to heating subsequently. On the other hand, heat and moisture fluxes remain in the convergence regime well before the arrival of the monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. In turn, diabatic heating is noticed prior to the onset here. Onset characteristics at Bombay and Nagpur are similar to those of the Arabian Sea. However, features at Calcutta are identical to those over the Bay of Bengal. Further, the budgets of kinetic energy, heat and moisture depict monotonic decrease at various land locations corresponding to the retreat. Interestingly, the signature of retreat is very similar at the various locations considered here. These changes are observed in the analysis and further corroborated by the model forecasts. Despite the systematic biases, the model captures the essential signature of the onset at various forecast ranges

Circulation characteristics associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone during northern winter

In this study, circulation characteristics associated with the ITCZ during the winter are examined by using the archives of National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). To this end, some of the mean large scale basic meteorological and derived fields surrounding the ITCZ are analysed to examine the ITCZ circulation. It would be expected that during the INDOEX field phase experiment, several remote sensing and special observations be generated. To assess the impact of new remote sensing data in maintaining the structure and intensity of ITCZ circulation, an assimilation experiment is conducted using the high resolution TOVS temperature profile data of NOAA over the Indian Ocean for March 1996. An assimilation for the forthcoming INDOEX field phase duration in 1999 is planned by incorporating all satellite and observational data to be collected to study the dynamics of ITCZ

Frequency of ubiquitin and FUS-positive, TDP-43-negative frontotemporal lobar degeneration

Frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) is a clinically, genetically and pathologically heterogeneous disorder. Within FTLD with ubiquitin-positive inclusions (FTLD-U), a new pathological subtype named FTLD-FUS was recently found with fused in sarcoma (FUS) positive, TDP-43-negative inclusions, and striking atrophy of the caudate nucleus. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of FTLD-FUS in our pathological FTLD series, and to describe the clinical, neuroimaging and neuropathological features of FTLD-FUS, especially caudate atrophy. Demographic and clinical data collected prospectively from 387 patients with frontotemporal dementia (FTD) yielded 74 brain specimens. Immunostaining was carried out using a panel of antibodies, including AT-8, ubiquitin, p62, FUS, and TDP-43. Cortical and caudate atrophy on MRI (n = 136) was rated as normal, mild-moderate or severe. Of the 37 FTLD-U cases, 33 were reclassified as FTLD-TDP and four (0.11, 95%: 0.00–0.21) as FTLD-FUS, with ubiquitin and FUS-positive, p62 and TDP-43-negative neuronal intranuclear inclusions (NII). All four FTLD-FUS cases had a negative family history, behavioural variant FTD (bvFTD), and three had an age at onset ≤40 years. MRI revealed mild-moderate or severe caudate atrophy in all, with a mean duration from onset till MRI of 63 months (range 16–119 months). In our total clinical FTD cohort, we found 11 patients (0.03; 95% CI: 0.01–0.05) with bvFTD, negative family history, and age at onset ≤40 years. Caudate atrophy was present in 10 out of 136 MRIs, and included all four FUS-cases. The newly identified FTLD-FUS has a frequency of 11% in FTLD-U, and an estimated frequency of three percent in our clinical FTD cohort. The existence of this pathological subtype can be predicted with reasonable certainty by age at onset ≤40 years, negative family history, bvFTD and caudate atrophy on MRI

Pleosporales

One hundred and five generic types of Pleosporales are described and illustrated. A brief introduction and detailed history with short notes on morphology, molecular phylogeny as well as a general conclusion of each genus are provided. For those genera where the type or a representative specimen is unavailable, a brief note is given. Altogether 174 genera of Pleosporales are treated. Phaeotrichaceae as well as Kriegeriella, Zeuctomorpha and Muroia are excluded from Pleosporales. Based on the multigene phylogenetic analysis, the suborder Massarineae is emended to accommodate five families, viz. Lentitheciaceae, Massarinaceae, Montagnulaceae, Morosphaeriaceae and Trematosphaeriaceae

DNA microarray revealed and RNAi plants confirmed key genes conferring low Cd accumulation in barley grains

List of genes down-regulated in both W6nk2 and Zhenong8 after 15 days exposure to 5 ΟM Cd. (DOC 130 kb

Evaluation of Stepping Stones as a tool for changing knowledge, attitudes and behaviours associated with gender, relationships and HIV risk in Karnataka, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stepping Stones training aims to help individuals explore sexual relationships and recognize gender inequalities, the structural drivers of the HIV epidemic, in order to understand risk behaviours and to seek solutions to factors that increase HIV vulnerability. Despite earlier studies suggesting the success of Stepping Stones, little data exist to show diffusion to trainees' social networks or the wider community.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A mixed-methods evaluation of this approach was undertaken using in-depth interviews of trainees and friends, and polling booth surveys in 20 villages where Stepping Stones training took place and in another 20 villages with no Stepping Stones intervention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interview respondents and their friends reported significant changes in their relationships after training, and benefit from discussion of gender, sexuality, condom use and HIV vulnerability issues. However, though diffusion of this knowledge at the level of personal contacts was strong, the evaluation revealed that diffusion to the community level was limited.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The qualitative part of this study reflects other studies in different settings, in that SS participants gained immensely from the training. Wider behaviour change is a challenging goal that many programmes fail to attain, with most interventions too limited in scope and intensity to produce larger community effects. This may have contributed to the fact that we observed few differences between interventions and non-intervention villages in this study. However, it is also possible that we had excessive expectations of individual change at the community level, and that it might have been more appropriate to have had broader community level rather than individual behavioural change indicators. We suggest that SS could be enhanced by efforts to better engage existing community opinion leaders, to empower and train participants as community change agents, and to support the development of village-level action plans that combat sexual stereotyping and risky behaviours that lead to unhealthy sexual relationships.</p