Is the Rise in Reported Dementia Mortality Real? Analysis of Multiple-Cause-of-Death Data for Australia and the United States

Official statistics in Australia and the United States show large recent increases in dementia mortality rates. In this study, we assessed whether these trends are biased by an increasing tendency of medical certifiers (predominantly physicians) to report on the death certificate that dementia was a direct cause of death. Regression models of multiple-cause-of-death data in Australia (2006-2016) and the United States (2006-2017) were constructed to adjust dementia mortality rates for changes in death certification practices. Compared with official statistics, the recent increase in adjusted age-standardized dementia death rates was less than half as large in Australia and about two-thirds as large in the United States. Further adjustment for changes in reporting of dementia anywhere on the death certificate implied even lower increases in dementia mortality. Declines in reporting of cardiovascular diseases as comorbid conditions also contributed to rises in dementia mortality rates. The increasing likelihood of dementia's being reported as directly leading to death largely explains recent increases in dementia mortality rates in both countries. However, studies have found that reported dementia on death certificates remains low compared with clinical evaluations of its prevalence. Improved guidance and training for certifiers in reporting of dementia on death certificates will help standardize mortality statistics within and between countries

Probing temporal aspects of high-order harmonic pulses via multi-colour, multi-photon ionization processes

High-order harmonics generated through the interaction of atoms and strong laser fields are a versatile, laboratory-scale source of extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation on a femtosecond or even attosecond time-scale. In order to be a useful experimental tool, however, this radiation has to be well characterized, both temporally and spectrally. In this paper we discuss how multi-photon, multi-colour ionization processes can be used to completely characterize either individual harmonics or attosecond pulse trains. In particular, we discuss the influence of the intensity and duration of the probe laser, and how these parameters effect the accuracy of the XUV characterization

A self-report risk index to predict occurrence of dementia in three independent cohorts of older adults: The ANU-ADRI

Background and Aims: The Australian National University AD Risk Index (ANU-ADRI, http://anuadri.anu.edu.au) is a self-report risk index developed using an evidence-based medicine approach to measure risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We aimed to evaluate the extent to which the ANU-ADRI can predict the risk of AD in older adults and to compare the ANU-ADRI to the dementia risk index developed from the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia (CAIDE) study for middle-aged cohorts. Methods: This study included three validation cohorts, i.e., the Rush Memory and Aging Study (MAP) (n = 903, age ≥53 years), the Kungsholmen Project (KP) (n = 905, age ≥75 years), and the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study (CVHS) (n = 2496, age ≥65 years) that were each followed for dementia. Baseline data were collected on exposure to the 15 risk factors included in the ANU-ADRI of which MAP had 10, KP had 8 and CVHS had 9. Risk scores and C-statistics were computed for individual participants for the ANU-ADRI and the CAIDE index. Results: For the ANU-ADRI using available data, the MAP study c-statistic was 0.637 (95% CI 0.596-0.678), for the KP study it was 0.740 (0.712-0.768) and for the CVHS it was 0.733 (0.691-0.776) for predicting AD. When a common set of risk and protective factors were used c-statistics were 0.689 (95% CI 0.650-0.727), 0.666 (0.628-0.704) and 0.734 (0.707-0.761) for MAP, KP and CVHS respectively. Results for CAIDE ranged from c-statistics of 0.488 (0.427-0.554) to 0.595 (0.565-0.625). Conclusion: A composite risk score derived from the ANU-ADRI weights including 8-10 risk or protective factors is a valid, self-report tool to identify those at risk of AD and dementia. The accuracy can be further improved in studies including more risk factors and younger cohorts with long-term follow-up. © 2014 Anstey et al

Supernova Remnants as Clues to Their Progenitors

Supernovae shape the interstellar medium, chemically enrich their host galaxies, and generate powerful interstellar shocks that drive future generations of star formation. The shock produced by a supernova event acts as a type of time machine, probing the mass loss history of the progenitor system back to ages of $\sim$ 10 000 years before the explosion, whereas supernova remnants probe a much earlier stage of stellar evolution, interacting with material expelled during the progenitor's much earlier evolution. In this chapter we will review how observations of supernova remnants allow us to infer fundamental properties of the progenitor system. We will provide detailed examples of how bulk characteristics of a remnant, such as its chemical composition and dynamics, allow us to infer properties of the progenitor evolution. In the latter half of this chapter, we will show how this exercise may be extended from individual objects to SNR as classes of objects, and how there are clear bifurcations in the dynamics and spectral characteristics of core collapse and thermonuclear supernova remnants. We will finish the chapter by touching on recent advances in the modeling of massive stars, and the implications for observable properties of supernovae and their remnants.Comment: A chapter in "Handbook of Supernovae" edited by Athem W. Alsabti and Paul Murdin (18 pages, 6 figures

Predicting Distribution of Aedes Aegypti and Culex Pipiens Complex, Potential Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Relation to Disease Epidemics in East Africa.

The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods

Validation of the CogDrisk Instrument as Predictive of Dementia in Four General Community-Dwelling Populations

Background: Lack of external validation of dementia risk tools is a major limitation for generalizability and translatability of prediction scores in clinical practice and research. Objectives: We aimed to validate a new dementia prediction risk tool called CogDrisk and a version, CogDrisk-AD for predicting Alzheimer’s disease (AD) using cohort studies. Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements: Four cohort studies were identified that included majority of the dementia risk factors from the CogDrisk tool. Participants who were free of dementia at baseline were included. The predictors were component variables in the CogDrisk tool that include self-reported demographics, medical risk factors and lifestyle habits. Risk scores for Any Dementia and AD were computed and Area Under the Curve (AUC) was assessed. To examine modifiable risk factors for dementia, the CogDrisk tool was tested by excluding age and sex estimates from the model. Results: The performance of the tool varied between studies. The overall AUC and 95% CI for predicting dementia was 0.77 (0.57, 0.97) for the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, 0.76 (0.70, 0.83) for the Health and Retirement Study - Aging, Demographics and Memory Study, 0.70 (0.67,0.72) for the Cardiovascular Health Study Cognition Study, and 0.66 (0.62,0.70) for the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Conclusions: The CogDrisk and CogDrisk-AD performed well in the four studies. Overall, this tool can be used to assess individualized risk factors of dementia and AD in various population settings

Using the MitoB method to assess levels of reactive oxygen species in ecological studies of oxidative stress

In recent years evolutionary ecologists have become increasingly interested in the effects of reactive oxygen species (ROS) on the life-histories of animals. ROS levels have mostly been inferred indirectly due to the limitations of estimating ROS from in vitro methods. However, measuring ROS (hydrogen peroxide, H2O2) content in vivo is now possible using the MitoB probe. Here, we extend and refine the MitoB method to make it suitable for ecological studies of oxidative stress using the brown trout Salmo trutta as model. The MitoB method allows an evaluation of H2O2 levels in living organisms over a timescale from hours to days. The method is flexible with regard to the duration of exposure and initial concentration of the MitoB probe, and there is no transfer of the MitoB probe between fish. H2O2 levels were consistent across subsamples of the same liver but differed between muscle subsamples and between tissues of the same animal. The MitoB method provides a convenient method for measuring ROS levels in living animals over a significant period of time. Given its wide range of possible applications, it opens the opportunity to study the role of ROS in mediating life history trade-offs in ecological settings

Residential Proximity to Agricultural Pesticide Use and Incidence of Breast Cancer in California, 1988–1997

California is the largest agricultural state in the United States and home to some of the world’s highest breast cancer rates. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether California breast cancer rates were elevated in areas with recent high agricultural pesticide use. We identified population-based invasive breast cancer cases from the California Cancer Registry for 1988–1997. We used California’s pesticide use reporting data to select pesticides for analysis based on use volume, carcinogenic potential, and exposure potential. Using 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data, we derived age- and race-specific population counts for the time period of interest. We used a geographic information system to aggregate cases, population counts, and pesticide use data for all block groups in the state. To evaluate whether breast cancer rates were related to recent agricultural pesticide use, we computed rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals using Poisson regression models, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood socioeconomic status and urbanization. This ecologic (aggregative) analysis included 176,302 invasive breast cancer cases and 70,968,598 person-years of observation. The rate ratios did not significantly differ from 1 for any of the selected pesticide categories or individual agents. The results from this study provide no evidence that California women living in areas of recent, high agricultural pesticide use experience higher rates of breast cancer

Number of teeth and myocardial infarction and stroke among elderly never smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In most previous studies the association between number of teeth and cardiovascular diseases has been found to be stronger among younger age groups than in older age groups, which indicates that age may modify the association between number of teeth and cardiovascular diseases.</p> <p>We investigated the association between tooth loss and atherosclerotic vascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and stroke in a homogeneous elderly population.</p> <p>The study population was comprised of a subpopulation of 392 community-living elderly people who participated in the population-based Kuopio 75+ study. The data were collected through an interview, a structured clinical health examination and from patient records. The main outcome measures were a history of diagnosed myocardial infarction and diagnosed ischemic stroke. Prevalence proportion ratios (PPR) were estimated using generalised linear models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Edentate subjects had a weakly, statistically non-significantly increased likelihood of a history of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke compared with dentate subjects. Those with a large number of teeth had a slightly, but not statistically significantly increased likelihood of a history of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke compared with those with a small number of teeth.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data did not show evidence that total or partial tooth loss would be associated with atherosclerotic vascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke among an elderly population aged 75 years or older.</p