Ecosystem Resilience and Threshold Response in the Galápagos Coastal Zone

Background: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a conservative estimate on rates of sea-level rise of 3.8 mm yr⁻¹ at the end of the 21st century, which may have a detrimental effect on ecologically important mangrove ecosystems. Understanding factors influencing the long-term resilience of these communities is critical but poorly understood. We investigate ecological resilience in a coastal mangrove community from the Galápagos Islands over the last 2700 years using three research questions: What are the 'fast and slow' processes operating in the coastal zone? Is there evidence for a threshold response? How can the past inform us about the resilience of the modern system?Methodology/Principal Findings: Palaeoecological methods (AMS radiocarbon dating, stable carbon isotopes (δ13C)) were used to reconstruct sedimentation rates and ecological change over the past 2,700 years at Diablas lagoon, Isabela, Galápagos. Bulk geochemical analysis was also used to determine local environmental changes, and salinity was reconstructed using a diatom transfer function. Changes in relative sea level (RSL) were estimated using a glacio-isostatic adjustment model. Non-linear behaviour was observed in the Diablas mangrove ecosystem as it responded to increased salinities following exposure to tidal inundations. A negative feedback was observed which enabled the mangrove canopy to accrete vertically, but disturbances may have opened up the canopy and contributed to an erosion of resilience over time. A combination of drier climatic conditions and a slight fall in RSL then resulted in a threshold response, from a mangrove community to a microbial mat.Conclusions/Significance: Palaeoecological records can provide important information on the nature of non-linear behaviour by identifying thresholds within ecological systems, and in outlining responses to 'fast and slow' environmental change between alternative stable states. This study highlights the need to incorporate a long-term ecological perspective when designing strategies for maximizing coastal resilience.</p

Submental-cervical angle: Perceived attractiveness and threshold values of desire for surgery

AIM: The submental-cervical angle may alter as a result of mandibular orthognathic surgery and/or the ageing process and is therefore an important facial aesthetic parameter for comparative diagnosis and treatment planning. The purpose of this study was to undertake a quantitative evaluation of the influence of the submental-cervical angle on perceived attractiveness and threshold values of desire for surgery. STUDY DESIGN: The submental-cervical angle of an idealized profile silhouette image was altered incrementally between 90° and 130°. The images were rated on a seven-point Likert scale by pre-treatment orthognathic patients (n = 75), laypeople (n = 75), and clinicians (n = 35). RESULTS: A submental-cervical angle of 90°–105° was deemed acceptable. Angles up to 120° were deemed slightly unattractive by the lay and clinician groups, but very unattractive by the patient group. By 125°–130° all groups perceived the angle as very unattractive. The threshold value of desire for surgery was 110° for patients, 115° for lay people and 125° for clinicians. Patients appear to be more critical than lay and clinician groups. CONCLUSIONS: These ranges of normal variability of the submental-cervical angle and threshold values of desire for surgery, in terms of observer acceptance, should be considered by clinicians in planning mandibular orthognathic surgery and aesthetic surgical procedures of the submental-cervical region

Multi-proxy studies in palaeolimnology

Multi-proxy studies are becoming increasingly common in palaeolimnology. Eight basic requirements and challenges for a multi-proxy study are outlined in this essay – definition of research questions, leadership, site selection and coring, data storage, chronology, presentation of results, numerical tools, and data interpretation. The nature of proxy data is discussed in terms of physical proxies and biotic proxies. Loss-on-ignition changes and the use of transfer functions are reviewed as examples of problems in the interpretation of data from multi-proxy studies. The importance of pollen analysis and plant macrofossil analysis in multi-proxy studies is emphasised as lake history cannot be interpreted without knowledge of catchment history. Future directions are outlined about how multi-proxy studies can contribute to understanding biotic responses to environmental change