Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances: Supplementary material to "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality"

This document complements the Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017 Report. It provides the detailed GHG and energy balances for the Reference, INDC and B2C scenarios described in the main report. The results displayed in this report have been produced with the global energy & GHG model POLES-JRC.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Assessment of the impact of climate change on residential energy demand for heating and cooling

Climate change in Europe leads to a decrease of residential heating needs and an increase of residential cooling needs. The impact on cooling needs is higher than on heating, in each of the climatic European regions. The overall residential heating and cooling needs are expected to decrease by a quarter by the end of the century, due to climate change. This order of magnitude remains when accounting for a higher insulation level of buildings.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

GECO 2015 - GHG and energy balances

This document complements the GECO2015 Report. It provides the detailed GHG and energy balances for the Baseline scenario and for the Global Mitigation scenario described in the main report. The tables provide for each country and region: - the main economic indicators: population, income per capita, share of sectoral value added; - the international energy prices; - emissions per greenhouse gas (GHG) and sector; - a reduced energy balance: primary energy production, net trade, primary energy demand; - power generation: inputs , production, capacity; - final consumption per sector and per fuel.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Impact of low oil prices on the EU economy

The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil price from US$100 to US$50 may lead to a GDP gain of about 0.7%, both on a global level and in the EU28, driven by private consumption and investment. The global gains are not evenly distributed. Net oil importing countries gain, whereas oil exporting countries lose. The analysis mainly focuses on the EU28 and it shows that the more oil-intensive countries and sectors gain more than the rest of the economy. A 50% decrease of the oil price may generate up to 3 million additional jobs (1.3% of the total labour force). Interestingly, oil-intensive sectors do not necessarily improve their competitiveness vis-à-vis their competitors in other regions, as non-EU producers may be less energy efficient and therefore benefit more from low oil prices.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

ANALYSIS OF THE IRAN OIL EMBARGO

This report analyses the macro-economic, sectoral, and energy effects of an Iranian oil embargo. Five scenarios are analysed reflecting various degrees of oil scarcity on the global market and different sizes of embargo coalitions. The report estimates the macro-economic impacts using the global general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The international oil and energy markets are assessed with the POLES model. This provides the impacts in prices and quantities in the international energy (oil) market. Impacts on trade flows regarding refined oil products are estimated with the OURSE model.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality

This study shows that achieving the climate change mitigation target of staying below 2°C temperature rise is possible technically – thanks to an acceleration of decarbonisation trends, an increased electrification of final demand and large changes in the primary energy mix that include a phase out of coal and a reduction of oil and gas – and is consistent with economic growth. It yields co-benefits via improved air quality – including avoided deaths, reduction of respiratory diseases and agricultural productivity improvement – that largely offset the cost of climate change mitigation. These co-benefits arise without extra investment costs and are additional to the benefits of avoiding global warming and its impact on the economy.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. The model version presented in this report is used in particular to produce the JRC Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) series.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model, cost-supply curves and a forest ownership decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model

This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model intercomparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor