Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are
important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system.
In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios
that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model intercomparison
exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the
likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices
over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We
explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the
scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the
suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within
the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are,
in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also
shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows
between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate
near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy
system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are,
on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the
stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor