The Use of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model for Policy Evaluation: Case of South Africa

Using a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM-DA), this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of 'free market reforms' may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Accounting for possible side effects mainly on the budget deficit, our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield a substantial growth in the aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting GDP growth rate could range from 5.3 percent to 9.8 percent depending on which variant of the reform policies is implemented.Marshallian Macroeconometric Model; Disaggregation; Transfer functions.

Modelling the Impact of Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers on Output Stabilisation in South Africa

This paper investigates ways in which an efficiency model like ‘DEA Window analysis’ can be utilised, under strictly defined conditions, to assess the level of efficiency of automatic fiscal stabilisers (AFS). The size of AFS is obtained through gaps in both revenue and expenditures variables such as tax revenue (current tax on income and wealth), social grants/benefits, and compensation of employees. The results obtained support evidence of AFS action between 1991 and 2005 and explain distinct cointegrating vectors that exist between the obtained efficiency scores and some selected variables, such as a corruption perception index (CPI), a conversion factor (exports), and the level of openness in the economy.South Africa; Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers; Data Envelopment Analysis; Efficiency scores

THE USE OF A MARSHALLIAN MACROECONOMIC MODEL FOR POLICY EVALUATION: CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

Using a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM-DA), this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of 'free market reforms' may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Accounting for possible side effects mainly on the budget deficit, our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield a substantial growth in the aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting GDP growth rate could range from 5.3 percent to 9.8 percent depending on which variant of the reform policies is implemented.Marshallian Macroeconometric Model, Disaggregation, Transfer functions

Modelling the impact of automatic fiscal stabilisers on output stabilisation in South Africa

This paper investigates ways in which an efficiency model like 'DEA Window analysis' can be utilised, under strictly defined conditions, to assess the level of efficiency of automatic fiscal stabilisers (AFS). The size of AFS is obtained through gaps in both revenue and expenditures variables such as tax revenue (current tax on income and wealth), social grants/benefits, and compensation of employees. The results obtained support evidence of AFS action between 1991 and 2005 and explain distinct cointegrating vectors that exist between the obtained efficiency scores and some selected variables, such as a corruption perception index (CPI), a conversion factor (exports), and the level of openness in the economy.South Africa, Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers, Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency scores.

DEA Applied to a Gauteng Sample of South African Public Hospitals

The ability of the South African government to provide antiretroviral medication to those in need will be determined by the ability of the public health services sector to efficiently provide that medication. If the delivery of other health services can be used as a guide, the goals of the anti-retroviral rollout will not be met. The research presented in this paper provides a preliminary analysis of the delivery of a few health care services by the public sector in Gauteng, South Africa. The data for the study was especially difficult to collect, suggesting the need for hospital level data information systems, as well as staff trained to analyse the information collected. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that services provided by small-scale medical facilities waste fewer resources, while medical centres offering more technical services, such as surgeries, also appear to deliver medical services more efficiently.

Social Ingredients and Conditional Convergence in the Study of Sectoral Growth

In this research article, we investigate the improved modelling ability and the outstanding policy advocacy of infusing health and education in sectoral growth equations of the South African economy. Our findings not only include improved and dependable modelling results but also provide distinct estimates of the returns on investment in health and education per sector using Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions techniques. Additionally, this paper provides a theoretical description of the productivity effects of HIV/AIDS using sectoral equations. Also, this research investigates the diffusion process in the technological progress at the South African sectoral level and its impact on the study of social ingredients. Using a fixed effects model, some features of the diffusion process are explained.Coefficient of effectiveness, Diffusion process, Fixed effects model, Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

Social Ingredients and Conditional Convergence in the Study of Sectoral Growth

In this research article, we investigate the improved modelling ability and the outstanding policy advocacy of infusing health and education in sectoral growth equations of the South African economy. Our findings not only include improved and dependable modelling results but also provide distinct estimates of the returns on investment in health and education per sector using Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions techniques. Additionally, this paper provides a theoretical description of the productivity effects of HIV/AIDS using sectoral equations. Also, this research investigates the diffusion process in the technological progress at the South African sectoral level and its impact on the study of social ingredients. Using a fixed effects model, some features of the diffusion process are explained.Coefficient of effectiveness; Diffusion process; Fixed effects model; Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

Behind-wall target detection using micro-doppler effects

Abstract: During the last decade technology for seeing through walls and through dense vegetation has interested many researchers. This technology offers excellent opportunities for military and police applications, though applications are not limited to the military and police; they go beyond those applications to where detecting a target behind an obstacle is needed. To be able to disclose the location and velocity of obscured targets, scientists’ resort to electromagnetic wave propagation. Thus, through-the-wall radar (TWR) is technology used to propagate electromagnetic waves towards a target through a wall. Though TWR is a promising technology, it has been reported that TWR imaging (TWRI) poses a range of ambiguities in target characterisation and detection. These ambiguities are related to the thickness and electric properties of walls. It has been reported that the mechanical and electric properties of the wall defocus the target image rendered by the radar. The defocusing problem is the phenomenon of displacing the target away from its true location when the image is rendered. Thus, the operator of the TWR will have a wrong position, not the real position of the target. Defocusing is not the only problem observed while the signal is travelling through the wall. Target classification, wall modelling and others are areas that need investigation...D.Ing. (Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Notoriété politique et influence électorale : Cas des élections présidentielles de 2018. Théorie et analyse

L’objectif de cet article est de participer au débat sur les résultats controversés des élections de 2018 en s’appuyant sur une analyse scientifique. Pour ce faire, la notoriété a été choisie comme critère d’analyse. Cette réflexion s’est basée également sur certains faits et propos des acteurs impliqués dans le processus électoral. Pour arriver aux conclusions, nous avons utilisé la dialectique pour confronter les propos et la logique enfin d’analyser les faits. Partant de la notoriété du parti politique, celle de la famille ainsi que du candidat, la présente étude analyse a révélé que seul le candidat Felix Tshisekedi possédait ces trois types de notoriété. Ces résultats rencontrent la théorie de Jacques Séguéla qui stipule que seul le candidat ayant 95% de notoriété peut être élu. Ce jugement n’est pas considéré comme une parole d’évangile, car l’utilisation des autres critères d’analyse peuvent contredire ou confirmer les résultats de cette analyse

A disaggregated Marshallian macroeconometric model of South Africa

The thesis enticingly describes a synergetic mix of productivity related topics at macroeconomic level. It aims at whetting potential readers to understand in more insightful ways topics such as: (1) the use of human capital in sectoral growth; (2) the role played by rising public expenditures (health and education) in strengthening production activities; (3) the role played by disaggregation in improving models’ forecasting ability and policy guidance; etc. The current research constitutes a valuable tool for understanding and predicting a country’s overall economic behavior and the behavior of important industrial sectors. In the present study, lack of data on important variables at sectoral level led to the use of advanced econometric estimation methods such as the implied transfer function equations system. As cited in the thesis, the literature reports a set of interesting economic investigations in this field that have been successful in describing some of the features included in this study. However, this research not only enhances the theoretical discussion on the issue but also provides empirical evidence using South African data. It is anticipated that further use and development of the outcomes of this thesis will yield additional explanatory, predictive and policy-making results that will be useful to many. In addition to the usefulness of this thesis’ contribution to the body of knowledge, several suggestions for further improvement are considered. Most predominantly, the work presented in this thesis has been reported in two interrelated papers (chapters). In the first paper, a methodical discussion is provided on the use and the size of social ingredients estimated as the level of normalized human capital per capita together with the conditional convergence process applied to South African sectoral growth. In the second paper, the parameters obtained are embodied into a full-fledged Macroeconometric (Marshallian) Model employing South African economic sectors. In fact, the second paper goes beyond the simple discussion of a Disaggregated Macroeconometric Model. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects that freedom (Thatcher-like) reforms may induce to the South African economy.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009.Economicsunrestricte