Estimating Survival Probabilities of Unmarked Dependent Young When Detection Is Imperfect

We present a capture-recapture modeling approach to the estimation of survival probability of dependent chicks when only the attending adult bird is marked. The model requires that the bird\u27s nest is found prior to hatching and that the number of eggs that hatch are counted. Subsequent data are sightings of the marked adult and a count of chicks with the adult. The model allows for imperfect detection of chicks, but the number of chicks can never exceed the number of eggs in the nest (i.e., adults cannot adopt chicks). We use data from radio-tagged adult Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) and their unmarked chicks as an example. We present the model in terms of precocial bird species, but the method extends to many other taxa

A meta-BACI approach forevaluating management intervention on chronic wasting disease in mule deer

Advances in acquiring and analyzing the spatial attributes of data have greatlyenhanced the potential utility of wildlife disease surveillance data for addressing problems ofecological or economic importance. We present an approach for using wildlife diseasesurveillance data to identify areas for (or of ) intervention, to spatially delineate pairedtreatment and control areas, and then to analyze these nonrandomly selected sites in a meta-analysis framework via before–after–control–impact (BACI) estimates of effect size. We applythese methods to evaluate the effectiveness of attempts to reduce chronic wasting disease(CWD) prevalence through intensive localized culling of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus)innorth-central Colorado, USA. Areas where surveillance data revealed high prevalence or caseclusters were targeted by state wildlife management agency personnel for focal scale (onaverage ,17 km2) culling, primarily via agency sharpshooters. Each area of sustained cullingthat we could also identify as unique by cluster analysis was considered a potential treatmentarea. Treatment areas, along with spatially paired control areas that we constructed post hocin a case-control design (collectively called ‘‘management evaluation sites’’), were thendelineated using home range estimators. Using meta-BACI analysis of CWD prevalence datafor all management evaluation sites, the mean effect size (change of prevalence on treatmentareas minus change in prevalence on their paired control areas) was 0.03 (SE ¼ 0.03); meaneffect size on treatment areas was not greater than on paired control areas. Excluding cullsamples from prevalence estimates or allowing for an equal or greater two-year lag in systemresponses to management did not change this outcome. We concluded that managementbenefits were not evident, although whether this represented true ineffectiveness or was a resultof lack of data or insufficient duration of treatment could not be discerned. Based on ourobservations, we offer recommendations for designing a management experiment with 80%power to detect a 0.10 drop in prevalence over a 6–12-year period

Evaluating Design Tradeoffs in Numeric Static Analysis for Java

Numeric static analysis for Java has a broad range of potentially useful applications, including array bounds checking and resource usage estimation. However, designing a scalable numeric static analysis for real-world Java programs presents a multitude of design choices, each of which may interact with others. For example, an analysis could handle method calls via either a top-down or bottom-up interprocedural analysis. Moreover, this choice could interact with how we choose to represent aliasing in the heap and/or whether we use a relational numeric domain, e.g., convex polyhedra. In this paper, we present a family of abstract interpretation-based numeric static analyses for Java and systematically evaluate the impact of 162 analysis configurations on the DaCapo benchmark suite. Our experiment considered the precision and performance of the analyses for discharging array bounds checks. We found that top-down analysis is generally a better choice than bottom-up analysis, and that using access paths to describe heap objects is better than using summary objects corresponding to points-to analysis locations. Moreover, these two choices are the most significant, while choices about the numeric domain, representation of abstract objects, and context-sensitivity make much less difference to the precision/performance tradeoff

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades

Three Pathogens in Sympatric Populations of Pumas, Bobcats, and Domestic Cats: Implications for Infectious Disease Transmission

Anthropogenic landscape change can lead to increased opportunities for pathogen transmission between domestic and non-domestic animals. Pumas, bobcats, and domestic cats are sympatric in many areas of North America and share many of the same pathogens, some of which are zoonotic. We analyzed bobcat, puma, and feral domestic cat samples collected from targeted geographic areas. We examined exposure to three pathogens that are taxonomically diverse (bacterial, protozoal, viral), that incorporate multiple transmission strategies (vector-borne, environmental exposure/ingestion, and direct contact), and that vary in species-specificity. Bartonella spp., Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV), and Toxoplasma gondii IgG were detected in all three species with mean respective prevalence as follows: puma 16%, 41% and 75%; bobcat 31%, 22% and 43%; domestic cat 45%, 10% and 1%. Bartonella spp. were highly prevalent among domestic cats in Southern California compared to other cohort groups. Feline Immunodeficiency Virus exposure was primarily associated with species and age, and was not influenced by geographic location. Pumas were more likely to be infected with FIV than bobcats, with domestic cats having the lowest infection rate. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence was high in both pumas and bobcats across all sites; in contrast, few domestic cats were seropositive, despite the fact that feral, free ranging domestic cats were targeted in this study. Interestingly, a directly transmitted species-specific disease (FIV) was not associated with geographic location, while exposure to indirectly transmitted diseases – vector-borne for Bartonella spp. and ingestion of oocysts via infected prey or environmental exposure for T. gondii – varied significantly by site. Pathogens transmitted by direct contact may be more dependent upon individual behaviors and intra-specific encounters. Future studies will integrate host density, as well as landscape features, to better understand the mechanisms driving disease exposure and to predict zones of cross-species pathogen transmission among wild and domestic felids

Social preferences and network structure in a population of reef manta rays

Understanding how individual behavior shapes the structure and ecology ofpopulations is key to species conservation and management. Like manyelasmobranchs, manta rays are highly mobile and wide ranging species threatened byanthropogenic impacts. In shallow-water environments these pelagic rays often formgroups, and perform several apparently socially-mediated behaviors. Group structuresmay result from active choices of individual rays to interact, or passive processes.Social behavior is known to affect spatial ecology in other elasmobranchs, but this isthe first study providing quantitative evidence for structured social relationships inmanta rays. To construct social networks, we collected data from more than 500groups of reef manta rays over five years, in the Raja Ampat Regency of West Papua.We used generalized affiliation indices to isolate social preferences from non-socialassociations, the first study on elasmobranchs to use this method. Longer lastingsocial preferences were detected mostly between female rays. We detectedassortment of social relations by phenotype and variation in social strategies, with theoverall social network divided into two main communities. Overall network structurewas characteristic of a dynamic fission-fusion society, with differentiated relationshipslinked to strong fidelity to cleaning station sites. Our results suggest that fine-scaleconservation measures will be useful in protecting social groups of M. alfredi in theirnatural habitats, and that a more complete understanding of the social nature of mantarays will help predict population response

Effect of aliskiren on post-discharge outcomes among diabetic and non-diabetic patients hospitalized for heart failure: insights from the ASTRONAUT trial

Aims The objective of the Aliskiren Trial on Acute Heart Failure Outcomes (ASTRONAUT) was to determine whether aliskiren, a direct renin inhibitor, would improve post-discharge outcomes in patients with hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) with reduced ejection fraction. Pre-specified subgroup analyses suggested potential heterogeneity in post-discharge outcomes with aliskiren in patients with and without baseline diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods and results ASTRONAUT included 953 patients without DM (aliskiren 489; placebo 464) and 662 patients with DM (aliskiren 319; placebo 343) (as reported by study investigators). Study endpoints included the first occurrence of cardiovascular death or HHF within 6 and 12 months, all-cause death within 6 and 12 months, and change from baseline in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at 1, 6, and 12 months. Data regarding risk of hyperkalaemia, renal impairment, and hypotension, and changes in additional serum biomarkers were collected. The effect of aliskiren on cardiovascular death or HHF within 6 months (primary endpoint) did not significantly differ by baseline DM status (P = 0.08 for interaction), but reached statistical significance at 12 months (non-DM: HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64-0.99; DM: HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.91-1.47; P = 0.03 for interaction). Risk of 12-month all-cause death with aliskiren significantly differed by the presence of baseline DM (non-DM: HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.50-0.94; DM: HR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.15-2.33; P < 0.01 for interaction). Among non-diabetics, aliskiren significantly reduced NT-proBNP through 6 months and plasma troponin I and aldosterone through 12 months, as compared to placebo. Among diabetic patients, aliskiren reduced plasma troponin I and aldosterone relative to placebo through 1 month only. There was a trend towards differing risk of post-baseline potassium ≥6 mmol/L with aliskiren by underlying DM status (non-DM: HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 0.71-1.93; DM: HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.30-4.42; P = 0.07 for interaction). Conclusion This pre-specified subgroup analysis from the ASTRONAUT trial generates the hypothesis that the addition of aliskiren to standard HHF therapy in non-diabetic patients is generally well-tolerated and improves post-discharge outcomes and biomarker profiles. In contrast, diabetic patients receiving aliskiren appear to have worse post-discharge outcomes. Future prospective investigations are needed to confirm potential benefits of renin inhibition in a large cohort of HHF patients without D

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls (Strix varia). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λ[subscript]RJS) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.Keywords: Northern Spotted Owl, occupancy, population change, Strix varia, Strix occidentalis caurina, fecundity, Barred Owl, surviva