Effectiveness of strategies to increase the validity of findings from association studies: size vs. replication

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The capacity of multiple comparisons to produce false positive findings in genetic association studies is abundantly clear. To address this issue, the concept of false positive report probability (FPRP) measures "the probability of no true association between a genetic variant and disease given a statistically significant finding". This concept involves the notion of prior probability of an association between a genetic variant and a disease, making it difficult to achieve acceptable levels for the FPRP when the prior probability is low. Increasing the sample size is of limited efficiency to improve the situation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To further clarify this problem, the concept of true report probability (TRP) is introduced by analogy to the positive predictive value (PPV) of diagnostic testing. The approach is extended to consider the effects of replication studies. The formula for the TRP after k replication studies is mathematically derived and shown to be only dependent on prior probability, alpha, power, and number of replication studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Case-control association studies are used to illustrate the TRP concept for replication strategies. Based on power considerations, a relationship is derived between TRP after k replication studies and sample size of each individual study. That relationship enables study designers optimization of study plans. Further, it is demonstrated that replication is efficient in increasing the TRP even in the case of low prior probability of an association and without requiring very large sample sizes for each individual study.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>True report probability is a comprehensive and straightforward concept for assessing the validity of positive statistical testing results in association studies. By its extension to replication strategies it can be demonstrated in a transparent manner that replication is highly effective in distinguishing spurious from true associations. Based on the generalized TRP method for replication designs, optimal research strategy and sample size planning become possible.</p

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as −9 °C, compared to −14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain–snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1148594)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ROSES Grant 09-IDS09-0049

Use of biological based therapy in patients with cardiovascular diseases in a university-hospital in New York City

BACKGROUND: The use of complementary and alternative products including Biological Based Therapy (BBT) has increased among patients with various medical illnesses and conditions. The studies assessing the prevalence of BBT use among patients with cardiovascular diseases are limited. Therefore, an evaluation of BBT in this patient population would be beneficial. This was a survey designed to determine the effects of demographics on the use of Biological Based Therapy (BBT) in patients with cardiovascular diseases. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of the education level on the use of BBT in cardiovascular patients. This survey also assessed the perceptions of users regarding the safety/efficacy of BBT, types of BBT used and potential BBT-drug interactions. METHOD: The survey instrument was designed to assess the findings. Patients were interviewed from February 2001 to December 2002. 198 inpatients with cardiovascular diseases (94 BBT users and 104 non-users) in a university hospital were included in the study. RESULTS: Users had a significantly higher level of education than non-users (college graduate: 28 [30%] versus 12 [12%], p = 0.003). Top 10 BBT products used were vitamin E [41(43.6%)], vitamin C [30(31.9%)], multivitamins [24(25.5%)], calcium [19(20.2%)], vitamin B complex [17(18.1%)], fish oil [12(12.8%)], coenzyme Q10 [11(11.7%)], glucosamine [10(10.6%)], magnesium [8(8.5%)] and vitamin D [6(6.4%)]. Sixty percent of users' physicians knew of the BBT use. Compared to non-users, users believed BBT to be safer (p < 0.001) and more effective (p < 0.001) than prescription drugs. Forty-two potential drug-BBT interactions were identified. CONCLUSION: Incidence of use of BBT in cardiovascular patients is high (47.5%), as is the risk of potential drug interaction. Health care providers need to monitor BBT use in patients with cardiovascular diseases

Win-Win for Wind and Wildlife: A Vision to Facilitate Sustainable Development

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ∼7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ∼3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ∼2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation

Population analysis of vitamin D receptor polymorphisms and the role of genetic ancestry in an admixed population

The vitamin D receptor (VDR) is an essential protein related to bone metabolism. Some VDR alleles are differentially distributed among ethnic populations and display variable patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD). In this study, 200 unrelated Brazilians were genotyped using 21 VDR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 28 ancestry informative markers. The patterns of LD and haplotype distribution were compared among Brazilian and the HapMap populations of African (YRI), European (CEU) and Asian (JPT+CHB) origins. Conditional regression and haplotype-specific analysis were performed using estimates of individual genetic ancestry in Brazilians as a quantitative trait. Similar patterns of LD were observed in the 5′ and 3′ gene regions. However, the frequency distribution of haplotype blocks varied among populations. Conditional regression analysis identified haplotypes associated with European and Amerindian ancestry, but not with the proportion of African ancestry. Individual ancestry estimates were associated with VDR haplotypes. These findings reinforce the need to correct for population stratification when performing genetic association studies in admixed populations

Movement and habitat use of the snapping turtle in an urban landscape

In order to effectively manage urban habitats, it is important to incorporate the spatial ecology and habitat use of the species utilizing them. Our previous studies have shown that the distribution of upland habitats surrounding a highly urbanized wetland habitat, the Central Canal (Indianapolis, IN, USA) influences the distribution of map turtles (Graptemys geographica) and red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta) during both the active season and hibernation. In this study we detail the movements and habitat use of another prominent member of the Central Canal turtle assemblage, the common snapping turtle, Chelydra serpentina. We find the same major upland habitat associations for C. serpentina as for G. geographica and T. scripta, despite major differences in their activity (e.g., C. serpentina do not regularly engage in aerial basking). These results reinforce the importance of recognizing the connection between aquatic and surrounding terrestrial habitats, especially in urban ecosystems

Non-Invasive Brain-to-Brain Interface (BBI): Establishing Functional Links between Two Brains

Transcranial focused ultrasound (FUS) is capable of modulating the neural activity of specific brain regions, with a potential role as a non-invasive computer-to-brain interface (CBI). In conjunction with the use of brain-to-computer interface (BCI) techniques that translate brain function to generate computer commands, we investigated the feasibility of using the FUS-based CBI to non-invasively establish a functional link between the brains of different species (i.e. human and Sprague-Dawley rat), thus creating a brain-to-brain interface (BBI). The implementation was aimed to non-invasively translate the human volunteer's intention to stimulate a rat's brain motor area that is responsible for the tail movement. The volunteer initiated the intention by looking at a strobe light flicker on a computer display, and the degree of synchronization in the electroencephalographic steady-state-visual-evoked-potentials (SSVEP) with respect to the strobe frequency was analyzed using a computer. Increased signal amplitude in the SSVEP, indicating the volunteer's intention, triggered the delivery of a burst-mode FUS (350 kHz ultrasound frequency, tone burst duration of 0.5 ms, pulse repetition frequency of 1 kHz, given for 300 msec duration) to excite the motor area of an anesthetized rat transcranially. The successful excitation subsequently elicited the tail movement, which was detected by a motion sensor. The interface was achieved at 94.0 +/- 3.0% accuracy, with a time delay of 1.59 +/- 1.07 sec from the thought-initiation to the creation of the tail movement. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of a computer-mediated BBI that links central neural functions between two biological entities, which may confer unexplored opportunities in the study of neuroscience with potential implications for therapeutic applications.open12

Neisseria meningitidis Differentially Controls Host Cell Motility through PilC1 and PilC2 Components of Type IV Pili

Neisseria meningitidis is a strictly human pathogen that has two facets since asymptomatic carriage can unpredictably turn into fulminant forms of infection. Meningococcal pathogenesis relies on the ability of the bacteria to break host epithelial or endothelial cellular barriers. Highly restrictive, yet poorly understood, mechanisms allow meningococcal adhesion to cells of only human origin. Adhesion of encapsulated and virulent meningococci to human cells relies on the expression of bacterial type four pili (T4P) that trigger intense host cell signalling. Among the components of the meningococcal T4P, the concomitantly expressed PilC1 and PilC2 proteins regulate pili exposure at the bacterial surface, and until now, PilC1 was believed to be specifically responsible for T4P-mediated meningococcal adhesion to human cells. Contrary to previous reports, we show that, like PilC1, the meningococcal PilC2 component is capable of mediating adhesion to human ME180 epithelial cells, with cortical plaque formation and F-actin condensation. However, PilC1 and PilC2 promote different effects on infected cells. Cellular tracking analysis revealed that PilC1-expressing meningococci caused a severe reduction in the motility of infected cells, which was not the case when cells were infected with PilC2-expressing strains. The amount of both total and phosphorylated forms of EGFR was dramatically reduced in cells upon PilC1-mediated infection. In contrast, PilC2-mediated infection did not notably affect the EGFR pathway, and these specificities were shared among unrelated meningococcal strains. These results suggest that meningococci have evolved a highly discriminative tool for differential adhesion in specific microenvironments where different cell types are present. Moreover, the fine-tuning of cellular control through the combined action of two concomitantly expressed, but distinctly regulated, T4P-associated variants of the same molecule (i.e. PilC1 and PilC2) brings a new model to light for the analysis of the interplay between pathogenic bacteria and human host cells

Proportions of CD4+ memory T cells are altered in individuals chronically infected with Schistosoma haematobium

Characterisation of protective helminth acquired immunity in humans or experimental models has focused on effector responses with little work conducted on memory responses. Here we show for the first time, that human helminth infection is associated with altered proportions of the CD4+ memory T cells, with an associated alteration of TH1 responses. The reduced CD4+ memory T cell proportions are associated with a significantly lower ratio of schistosome-specific IgE/IgG4 (marker for resistance to infection/re-infection) in uninfected older people. Helminth infection does not affect the CD8+ memory T cell pool. Furthermore, we show for the first time in a helminth infection that the CD4+ memory T cell proportions decline following curative anti-helminthic treatment despite increased CD4+ memory cell replication. Reduced accumulation of the CD4+ memory T cells in schistosome-infected people has implications for the development of natural or vaccine induced schistosome-specific protective immunity as well as for unrelated pathogens

Understory Bird Communities in Amazonian Rainforest Fragments: Species Turnover through 25 Years Post-Isolation in Recovering Landscapes

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1–100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1–2 preisolation samples and 4–5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction