Yours ever (well, maybe): Studies and signposts in letter writing

Electronic mail and other digital communications technologies seemingly threaten to end the era of handwritten and typed letters, now affectionately seen as part of snail mail. In this essay, I analyze a group of popular and scholarly studies about letter writing-including examples of pundits critiquing the use of e-mail, etiquette manuals advising why the handwritten letter still possesses value, historians and literary scholars studying the role of letters in the past and what it tells us about our present attitudes about digital communications technologies, and futurists predicting how we will function as personal archivists maintaining every document including e-mail. These are useful guideposts for archivists, providing both a sense of the present and the past in the role, value and nature of letters and their successors. They also provide insights into how such documents should be studied, expanding our gaze beyond the particular letters, to the tools used to create them and the traditions dictating their form and function. We also can discern a role for archivists, both for contributing to the literature about documents and in using these studies and commentaries, suggesting not a new disciplinary realm but opportunities for new interdisciplinary work. Examining a documentary form makes us more sensitive to both the innovations and traditions as it shifts from the analog to the digital; we can learn not to be caught up in hysteria or nostalgia about one form over another and archivists can learn about what they might expect in their labors to document society and its institutions. At one time, paper was part of an innovative technology, with roles very similar to the Internet and e-mail today. It may be that the shifts are far less revolutionary than is often assumed. Reading such works also suggests, finally, that archivists ought to rethink how they view their own knowledge and how it is constructed and used. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V

Parametric hazard rate models for long-term sickness absence

PURPOSE: In research on the time to onset of sickness absence and the duration of sickness absence episodes, Cox proportional hazard models are in common use. However, parametric models are to be preferred when time in itself is considered as independent variable. This study compares parametric hazard rate models for the onset of long-term sickness absence and return to work. METHOD: Prospective cohort study on sickness absence with four follow-up years of 53,830 employees working in the private sector in the Netherlands. The time to onset of long-term (>6 weeks) sickness absence and return to work were modelled by parametric hazard rate models. RESULTS: The exponential parametric model with a constant hazard rate most accurately described the time to onset of long-term sickness absence. Gompertz-Makeham models with monotonically declining hazard rates best described return to work. CONCLUSIONS: Parametric models offer more possibilities than commonly used models for time-dependent processes as sickness absence and return to work. However, the advantages of parametric models above Cox models apply mainly for return to work and less for onset of long-term sickness absence

An approach to trial design and analysis in the era of non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect

Background: Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed and analysed under the proportional hazards assumption, with a target hazard ratio for the treatment effect in mind. However, the hazards may be non-proportional. We address how to design a trial under such conditions, and how to analyse the results. Methods: We propose to extend the usual approach, a logrank test, to also include the Grambsch-Therneau test of proportional hazards. We test the resulting composite null hypothesis using a joint test for the hazard ratio and for time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We compute the power and sample size for the logrank test under proportional hazards, and from that we compute the power of the joint test. For the estimation of relevant quantities from the trial data, various models could be used; we advocate adopting a pre-specified flexible parametric survival model that supports time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. Results: We present the mathematics for calculating the power and sample size for the joint test. We illustrate the methodology in real data from two randomized trials, one in ovarian cancer and the other in treating cellulitis. We show selected estimates and their uncertainty derived from the advocated flexible parametric model. We demonstrate in a small simulation study that when a treatment effect either increases or decreases over time, the joint test can outperform the logrank test in the presence of both patterns of non-proportional hazards. Conclusions: Those designing and analysing trials in the era of non-proportional hazards need to acknowledge that a more complex type of treatment effect is becoming more common. Our method for the design of the trial retains the tools familiar in the standard methodology based on the logrank test, and extends it to incorporate a joint test of the null hypothesis with power against non-proportional hazards. For the analysis of trial data, we propose the use of a pre-specified flexible parametric model that can represent a time-dependent hazard ratio if one is present

Emplacement of inflated Pāhoehoe flows in the Naude’s Nek Pass, Lesotho remnant, Karoo continental flood basalt province: use of flow-lobe tumuli in understanding flood basalt emplacement

Physical volcanological features are presented for a 710-m-thick section, of the Naude’s Nek Pass, within the lower part of the Lesotho remnant of the Karoo Large Igneous Province. The section consists of inflated pāhoehoe lava with thin, impersistent sedimentary interbeds towards the base. There are seven discreet packages of compound and hummocky pāhoehoe lobes containing flow-lobe tumuli, making up approximately 50% of the section. Approximately 45% of the sequence consists of 14 sheet lobes, between 10 and 52-m-thick. The majority of the sheet lobes are in two packages indicating prolonged periods of lava supply capable of producing thick sheet lobes. The other sheet lobes are as individual lobes or pairs, within compound flows, suggesting brief increases in lava supply rate. We suggest, contrary to current belief, that there is no evidence that compound flows are proximal to source and sheet lobes (simple flows) are distal to source and we propose that the presence of flow-lobe tumuli in compound flows could be an indicator that a flow is distal to source. We use detailed, previously published, studies of the Thakurvadi Formation (Deccan Traps) as an example. We show that the length of a lobe and therefore the sections that are ‘medial or distal to source’ are specific to each individual lobe and are dependent on the lava supply of each eruptive event, and as such flow lobe tumuli can be used as an indicator of relative distance from source

The influence of soil communities on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

Soil respiration represents a major carbon flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, and is expected to accelerate under climate warming. Despite its importance in climate change forecasts, however, our understanding of the effects of temperature on soil respiration (RS) is incomplete. Using a metabolic ecology approach we link soil biota metabolism, community composition and heterotrophic activity, to predict RS rates across five biomes. We find that accounting for the ecological mechanisms underpinning decomposition processes predicts climatological RS variations observed in an independent dataset (n = 312). The importance of community composition is evident because without it RS is substantially underestimated. With increasing temperature, we predict a latitudinal increase in RS temperature sensitivity, with Q10 values ranging between 2.33 ±0.01 in tropical forests to 2.72 ±0.03 in tundra. This global trend has been widely observed, but has not previously been linked to soil communities

The Periotest Method: Implant-Supported Framework Precision of Fit Evaluation

: In this study, the Periotest instrument was used to measure the precision of fit between cast high noble-metal frameworks and the supporting implants in a patient-simulation model. Three framework conditions and three implant-location variables were used to evaluate the rigidity of the assembly as measured by the Periotest method. The framework variables were (1) one-piece castings (OPC); (2) sectioned-soldered inaccurate castings (SSIC); and (3) sectioned-soldered accurate castings (SSAC). The implant-location variables were right anterior (RA), center (C), and left anterior (LA). Materials and Methods : The patient simulation model used consisted of three self-tapping BrÅnemark implants in a reasonable arch curvature in bovine bone. Three working casts were fabricated from the patient-simulation model using polyvinyl siloxane and tapered impression copings. From the working casts, three sets of three frameworks were fabricated as OPCs, SSICs, and SSACs using type 3 high noble alloy. The SSICs were fabricated with a quantitative misfit of 101.6 Μm at the facial surface, between the abutment-to-gold cylinder interface at the C implant location. Periotest value (PTV) measurements were made at the midfacial surface of the frameworks directly above each abutment-to-gold cylinder interface. Three measurements were made for each test condition. The data were analyzed to compare framework condition(s) and implant location(s) using ANOVA and Fisher's Protected Least Significant Difference Comparison Test. Results : The ANOVA showed that significant differences exist between the mean PTV data for framework condition and for implant location (p < .01). Significant differences were shown between the mean PTV data for the SSAC assemblies and the OPC and SSIC assemblies. The SSICs displayed a more positive (+) mean PTV than the OPCs. The OPC assemblies had a more positive mean PTV than the SSAC assemblies. The mean PTV data for the SSAC assemblies had a significantly different PTV (p < .01) than the other two framework condition assemblies. The OPC and the SSIC assemblies had PTVs that were not significantly different. The C implant location was significantly different from the RA and the LA implant locations (p < .01). The RA and the LA implant locations were not significantly different from each other. The C implant location always demonstrated the most positive mean PTV regardless of the framework condition being tested. Conclusions : The Periotest instrument quantified differences in the precision of fit between three framework conditions. The SSAC assemblies were significantly more rigid than the OPC and SSIC assemblies. The OPC and SSIC assemblies' mean PTVs were not significantly different. The mean PTVs for the C implant location and the RA and LA implant locations were significantly different (p < .01). The mean PTVs of the RA and LA implant locations were not significantly different. The implant-location PTVs followed the same rank order for all three framework conditions. The procedures used to fabricate a more precise fit between the framework and the supporting implants is influenced by the skill of the clinician and technician.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75096/1/j.1532-849X.1996.tb00298.x.pd

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Profiles of physical, emotional and psychosocial wellbeing in the Lothian birth cohort 1936

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical, emotional, and psychosocial wellbeing are important domains of function. The aims of this study were to explore the existence of separable groups among 70-year olds with scores representing physical function, perceived quality of life, and emotional wellbeing, and to characterise any resulting groups using demographic, personality, cognition, health and lifestyle variables.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify possible groups.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results suggested there were 5 groups. These included High (n = 515, 47.2% of the sample), Average (n = 417, 38.3%), and Poor Wellbeing (n = 37, 3.4%) groups. The two other groups had contrasting patterns of wellbeing: one group scored relatively well on physical function, but low on emotional wellbeing (Good Fitness/ Low Spirits,n = 60, 5.5%), whereas the other group showed low physical function but relatively well emotional wellbeing (Low Fitness/Good Spirits, n = 62, 5.7%). Salient characteristics that distinguished all the groups included smoking and drinking behaviours, personality, and illness.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite there being some evidence of these groups, the results also support a largely one-dimensional construct of wellbeing in old age—for the domains assessed here—though with some evidence that some individuals have uneven profiles.</p

Health Risk or Resource? Gradual and Independent Association between Self-Rated Health and Mortality Persists Over 30 Years

Background: Poor self-rated health (SRH) is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5–10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors. Methods: We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥16 years who participated 1977–79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure. Results: 92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980–2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from “excellent” (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1) to “good” (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92–1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01–1.46) to “fair” (1.41, 1.18–1.68; 1.39, 1.14–1.70) to “poor”(1.61, 1.15–2.25; 1.49, 1.07–2.06) to “very poor” (2.85, 1.25–6.51; 1.30, 0.18–9.35). Persons answering the SRH question with “don't know” (1.87, 1.21–2.88; 1.26, 0.87–1.83) had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up. Conclusions: SRH is a strong and “dose-dependent” predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than pathogenetic pathways

Chromogranin A, a significant prognostic factor in small cell lung cancer

Chromogranin A (CgA) is a protein present in neuroendocrine vesicles. Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is considered a neuroendocrine tumour. It is possible to demonstrate CgA expression in SCLC by immunohistochemical methods. Since CgA is released to the circulation it might also work as a clinical tumour marker. We used a newly developed two-site enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for CgA in plasma from 150 newly diagnosed patients with SCLC. Follow-up was for a minimum of 5 years. Thirty-seven per cent of the patients had elevated pretreatment values and the values were significantly related to stage of disease. Multivariable analysis by Cox's proportional hazard model including nine known prognostic factors disclosed performance status as the most influential prognostic factor followed by stage of disease, CgA and LDH. A simple prognostic index (PI) could be established based on these four pretreatment features. In this way the patients could be separated into three groups with significant different prognosis. The median survival and 95% confidence intervals for the three groups were as follows: 424 days (311–537), 360 days (261–459) and 174 days (105–243). © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig