Performance of the ocean state forecast system at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services

The reliability of the operational Ocean State Forecast system at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) during tropical cyclones that affect the coastline of India is described in this article. The performance of this system during cyclone Thane that severely affected the southeast coast of India during the last week of December 2011 is reported here. Spec-tral wave model is used for forecasting the wave fields generated by the tropical cyclone and vali-dation of the same is done using real-time automated observation systems. The validation results indicate that the forecasted wave parameters agree well with the measurements. The feedback from the user community indicates that the forecast was reliable and highly useful. Alerts based on this operational ocean state forecast system are thus useful for protecting the property and lives of the coastal communities along the coastline of India. INCOIS is extending this service for the benefit of the other countries along the Indian Ocean rim

Wave forecasting and monitoring during very severe cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal

Wave fields, both measured and forecast during the very severe cyclone Phailin, are discussed in this communication. Waves having maximum height of 13.54 m were recorded at Gopalpur, the landfall point of the cyclone. The forecast and observed significant wave heights matched well at Gopalpur with correlation coefficient of 0.98, RMS error of 0.35 m and scatter index of 14%. Forecasts were also validated in the open ocean and found to be reliable (scatter index < 15%). The study also revealed the presence of Southern Ocean swells with a peak period of 20-22 sec hitting Gopalpur coast along with the cyclone-generated waves