Distributed lag models for hydrological data

The distributed lag model (DLM), used most prominently in air pollution studies, finds application wherever the effect of a covariate is delayed and distributed through time. We explore the use of modified formulations of DLMs to provide flexible varying-coeficient models with smoothness constraints, applicable in any setting in which lagged covariates are regressed on a time-dependent response. The models are applied to simulated flow and rainfall data and to flow data from a Scottish mountain river, with particular emphasis on approximating the relationship between environmental covariates and flow regimes in order to detect the influence of unobserved processes. It was found that under certain rainfall conditions some of the variability in the influence of rainfall on flow arises through a complex interaction between antecedent ground wetness and the time-delay in rainfall. The models are able to identify subtle changes in rainfall response, particularly in the location of peak influence in the lag structure and offer a computationally attractive approach for fitting DLMs

Size reconstructibility of graphs

The deck of a graph $G$ is given by the multiset of (unlabelled) subgraphs $\{G-v:v\in V(G)\}$. The subgraphs $G-v$ are referred to as the cards of $G$. Brown and Fenner recently showed that, for $n\geq29$, the number of edges of a graph $G$ can be computed from any deck missing 2 cards. We show that, for sufficiently large $n$, the number of edges can be computed from any deck missing at most $\frac1{20}\sqrt{n}$ cards.Comment: 15 page

Areal Variation in the 1976 Presidential Vote: A Case Study of Akron

Author Institution: University of AkronA comprehensive, city-wide analysis, based on electoral precincts, was done for the City of Akron concerning the Presidential election of 1976. By superimposing a voting pattern map showing precinct votes, on a census data map showing socioeconomic data by census tracts, certain observations were made concerning the Presidential election in Akron. Black voters and lower income groups overwhelmingly supported Carter, higher income groups and college educated voters tended notably to support Ford, and middle income groups supplied the swing votes. The election of 1976 could be called both a maintaining and a deviating type of election in which the majority party, the Democrats, elected a President largely because numerous lifelong Democrats were bolstered by overwhelming percentages of black voters who voted for their party. There are also indications of white voter deviation, particularly among middle and upper income groups

NS Fivebrane and Tachyon Condensation

We argue that a semi-infinite D6-brane ending on an NS5-brane can be obtained from the condensation of the tachyon on the unstable D9-brane of type IIA theory. The construction uses a combination of the descriptions of these branes as solitons of the worldvolume theory of the D9-brane. The NS5-brane, in particular, involves a gauge bundle which is operator valued, and hence is better thought of as a gerbe.Comment: 20 pages, harvma

Thinking political sociology: beyond the limits of post-Marxism

This article is concerned with post-Marxism and materialism in the work of Judith Butler, Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe. As ‘post-Marxists’ these writers use ‘material’ in a variety of ways, all of which indicate limits and constraints. The article focuses on one version of ‘materialism’ in this work, a version that is more implied than elaborated, in which ‘material’ is equivalent to institutionalized performativity or sedimented discourse: to ‘objective’ social structures and institutions. Post-Marxists often use ‘the social’ as equivalent to ‘material’ in this sense, to gesture towards the context in which politics succeeds or fails. I argue that the specificities of ‘the social’ cannot be theorized from within the terms of post-Marxism itself and that Butler and Laclau acknowledge this limitation in their most recent work. I therefore conclude that post-Marxism needs a supplement that I call political sociology. This is a dangerous supplement in the Derridean sense: a necessary addition that destabilizes the value post-Marxism gives to the distinction between ‘social’ and ‘political’ in which the latter is the privileged term

The Complexity of Nash Equilibria in Simple Stochastic Multiplayer Games

We analyse the computational complexity of finding Nash equilibria in simple stochastic multiplayer games. We show that restricting the search space to equilibria whose payoffs fall into a certain interval may lead to undecidability. In particular, we prove that the following problem is undecidable: Given a game G, does there exist a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium of G where player 0 wins with probability 1. Moreover, this problem remains undecidable if it is restricted to strategies with (unbounded) finite memory. However, if mixed strategies are allowed, decidability remains an open problem. One way to obtain a provably decidable variant of the problem is restricting the strategies to be positional or stationary. For the complexity of these two problems, we obtain a common lower bound of NP and upper bounds of NP and PSPACE respectively.Comment: 23 pages; revised versio

A D-vine copula mixed model for joint meta-analysis and comparison of diagnostic tests

For a particular disease, there may be two diagnostic tests developed, where each of the tests is subject to several studies. A quadrivariate generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) has been recently proposed to joint meta-analyse and compare two diagnostic tests. We propose a D-vine copula mixed model for joint meta-analysis and comparison of two diagnostic tests. Our general model includes the quadrivariate GLMM as a special case and can also operate on the original scale of sensitivities and specificities. The method allows the direct calculation of sensitivity and specificity for each test, as well as the parameters of the summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curve, along with a comparison between the SROCs of each test. Our methodology is demonstrated with an extensive simulation study and illustrated by meta-analysing two examples where two tests for the diagnosis of a particular disease are compared. Our study suggests that there can be an improvement on GLMM in fit to data since our model can also provide tail dependencies and asymmetries

Sequential Deliberation for Social Choice

In large scale collective decision making, social choice is a normative study of how one ought to design a protocol for reaching consensus. However, in instances where the underlying decision space is too large or complex for ordinal voting, standard voting methods of social choice may be impractical. How then can we design a mechanism - preferably decentralized, simple, scalable, and not requiring any special knowledge of the decision space - to reach consensus? We propose sequential deliberation as a natural solution to this problem. In this iterative method, successive pairs of agents bargain over the decision space using the previous decision as a disagreement alternative. We describe the general method and analyze the quality of its outcome when the space of preferences define a median graph. We show that sequential deliberation finds a 1.208- approximation to the optimal social cost on such graphs, coming very close to this value with only a small constant number of agents sampled from the population. We also show lower bounds on simpler classes of mechanisms to justify our design choices. We further show that sequential deliberation is ex-post Pareto efficient and has truthful reporting as an equilibrium of the induced extensive form game. We finally show that for general metric spaces, the second moment of of the distribution of social cost of the outcomes produced by sequential deliberation is also bounded